It's Monday so let us cheer you up with a nice four game slate in DFS hockey tonight. No teams are playing on back to back and there are some nice matchups to expose with teams coming in as large favorites. Let's dig in and take a look at some of the top value plays from our projection system.
Hockey is back and with it come our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 19.08 DK - 4.77
At this time there are no goalies confirmed starting so I am going to make some assumptions with no teams playing back to back. Holtby should be back between the pipes tonight after a day of rest. He started on Saturday night vs. the Lightning and took an overtime loss, allowing just one goal and making 32 saves. He will be in a nice spot to rebound tonight as the Capitals are -225 home favorites to the Sabres who sit in the basement of the Eastern Conference. I would normally only use Holtby in cash games as the upside is limited facing under 28 shots per game while the Sabres are a low volume shot team. However, on a small slate is safe in all formats.
Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 17.99 DK - 4.5
The trend tonight, at least in my opinion, is going to be target the home teams. All of them are favorites with the Blue Jackets(-240) coming in as the biggest of them all. This puts Sergei Bobrovsky in a great situation to pick up a win tonight. He has been rock solid at home all year winning eight of his 11 starts with a .932 save % and one shutout. He also benefits big time from having a Top 5 defense in front of him. Like Holtby, his low SA/60 rate has me normally leaning on him in cash games only but on a small slate I also feel safe with him in all formats.
Also Consider: Tuukka Rask(BOS)
Opponent - OTT
Proj Pts FD - 15.26 DK - 5.08
On a smaller slate with it will be very important to capitalize on finding the best PTS/$ value. This is the main reason for recommending Malkin over Crosby tonight. He is at least a $1,000 cheaper on both sites and while he isn't scoring at the same pace as the Kid, he is averaging a point per game this season and comes with a high floor averaging just shy of three shots per game. Take the discount, especially in cash games, and build a much more balanced lineup on Monday night.
PP Stack With: Chris Kunitz, Phil Kessel
Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 11.87 DK - 3.33
Speaking of PTS/$ value plays, Wennberg has been one of the best in DFS all season. He has tallied 21 points through 23 games this season and is getting top minutes for the leagues #2 offense and #3 powerplay. The shot volume presented a reason for concern over the last few weeks but he has rebounded nicely with nine shots in his last three games. He hs been rewarded for his efforts, as well, scoring a goal in two of those games. The Blue Jackets open as huge -255 favorites in the second game of the home at home with the Coyotes who rank right near the bottom of the league(27th) in defense allowing 3.1 goals per game. Wennberg is safe in all formats.
PP Stack with: Nick Foligno, Brandon Saad
Opponent - OTT
Proj Pts FD - 14.87 DK - 4.63
The Penguins are big favorites tonight and a cash game strategy I have been employing is getting exposure to both lines of the teams I am targeting. Hornqvist presents exposure to the top line with Crosby and also the top powerplay unit with Malkin. He has recorded a point in each of his three games since returning from a concussion and added 10 shots on goal. He is safe in all formats.
Stack with: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary
Opponent - CBJ
Proj Pts FD - 11.31 DK - 3.39
On a small four game slate, Vrbata is a near must play from a PTS/$ perspective. For what he provides he is vastly under priced and it's mainly due to playing on the Coyotes and their 21st ranked offense. He offers a very high floor averaging three shots on goal per game and even better lately with 3.6 over the last 10 games. He has also shown excellent offensive upside despite the situation with 17 points in 23 games this season. The matchup is not the most ideal but the price is just too good to pass up on a small slate.
Stack with: Tobias Reider, Martin Hanzal
DEFENSEMEN
Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 11.22 DK - 3.56
His salary has reached a season high but from a PTS/$ perspective there is still room to grow. Despite not recording a point in four straight games and picking up just four in the last 10, Werenski has still provided a high floor averaging over 3.5 shots per game. He also adds around 1.5 blocks per game and is getting heavy usage on the top pairing and powerplay unit on the leagues #2 offense. He is safe in all formats.
Opponent - OTT
Proj PtsFD - 5.97 DK - 1.72
Opponent - OTT
Proj Pts FD - 6.79 DK - 2.17
Either of these Penguins D men make excellent low end values tonight at home vs. the Senators. They skate together on the third pairing so the ice time isn't where we would like it but you get what you pay for. The good news is both players are in a nice stride offensively right now with both tallying six points over their last 10 games. On a small slate I could see using both if you are trying to get a high end goalie and stack together but I would side with Schultz in most scenarios as he also gets time on the second powerplay unit.
Also Consider: Aaron Ekblad
Hockey is back and with it comes our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
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