Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid in action during an NBA basketball game against the Miami Heat, Monday, Nov. 21, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
It's a nice feeling to write after a successful day of DFS, and it's feeling that way as of this writing (though obviously anything could change). Monday presents us with a huge slate and lots of options, and as usual, you're going to need to head over to the chat or use the lineup optimizer if yo want to get the full story right before line-up lock, but there's a lot to go over that we can dig into now, so let's do it.
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Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.52 DK - 34.9
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.89 DK - 35.19
Point guard tonight is topped by two excellent midrange options. Schroder's been reliably topping 5x points per dollar on these prices in spite of the fact that the Hawks have been involved in frequent blowouts, and he's got a great match-up with the fast paced Thunder. The Thunder are on the 2nd half of a back to back, and they've allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this year. Rondo's match-up isn't quite as good, but he offers absurd upside on these prices thanks to his across-the-board contributions, as evidenced by his 51 fantasy point monster against the Cavaliers. I prefer Schroder for upside, but like both of these guys quite a bit.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.23 DK - 29.39
Big slates these days often come down to judiciously selecting your cheap plays, and tonight? Andrew Harrison looks to be a fine place to start. He's topped 30 minutes in each of his last three games as a starter, and averaged 6x points per dollar on these prices in that time. He's handling the ball a ton and chipping in across multiple categories, and the Pelicans have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. They're also on the 2nd half of a back to back. He looks like a pretty safe option with big time upside as well.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.65 DK - 51.82
If you find out that you can't or don't want to pay up for Westbrook, John Wall could be an excellent hedge on the position. You can't look at Wall's season long line to figure out what he's been doing for the Wizards recently, as his minutes have gone sky high recently. He's 3rd in the NBA of time of possession per game (after Russ and Harden), and would probably be first if he had played the minutes he's been playing recently all season. And, oh boy, this match-up. The Nets have been by far the worst team against opposing point guards this season. Wall could be in line for a monster, and his floor is excellent as well.
Westbrook looks awesome again, but I simply can't do a whole write-up about him every night. I suspect he'll show up in optimal lineups.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.05 DK - 27.84
The Nuggets haven't wasted any time in pressing Will Barton right back in to action. He's played 33 and 34 minutes in his two games back, and provided exactly 1 fantasy point per minute in that time. If he's going to play 30+ minutes and score a fantasy point per minute, well, I'm sure you can do the math. The 76ers haven't been as generous to opposing fantasy players as they have been historically thanks to them playing a slower pace, but this is just a case where Barton's price doesn't match up with his opportunity. I love him in any format.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 22.05 DK - 24.44
Do you like playing back-ups? Me too! Daniels is coming off the best game of his career, and has now posted 3 solid games in a row while importantly playing 28+ minutes in each of them. The Grizzlies are very hard up for scoring right now, and while Daniels has his warts as a player, he can certainly shoot the ball. Like Barton, this is a case where the price hasn't caught up to what he's been up to recently, and while rostering back-ups isn't without risk, this looks like a worthwhile gamble.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.43 DK - 30.9
Kilpatrick has been a little cold recently, but the underlying opportunity and production are still there well enough for me to trust him today. He's got the 2nd highest usage on the Nets at 29.9%, and when things stay close, he's in line for even greater upside thanks to more minutes. Vegas sees the Wiz as favored by just 5.5 points here, and if Kilpatrick exceeds his 29 minute floor he could be a great play in any format.
Consider Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson if Jose Calderon were to sit.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 36.01 DK - 37.76
If you want safety in the mid range at the small forward position, you don't need to look a lot further than Barnes. He's gone from a role player in Golden State to option 1 this year with Williams ailing and Nowitzki out, and he's still underpriced relative what he will be up to when Dirk is on the shelf. He's topped 20 shots in 3 of his last 4 games, and things generally need to go very wrong for him to go under 5x points per dollar on these prices. The match-up here suggests that he should be in decent shape. The Hornets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season in spite of playing a very slow pace, and Barnes should be at his best here.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.41 DK - 26.46
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.92 DK - 27.04
Two cheap options that can help fill out your roster if you want to afford big money guys. Ingram has been playing huge minutes for the Lakers, and has been handily paying these prices in spite of having some bad luck from the field. This isn't a great match-up for him, but he's just not a $4,100 player if he's going to play 35+ minutes a game. Williams is another beneficiary of the short handed Grizzlies, and he has been solid if not unspectacular in his increased role for them. He's been in the 4.5x-6x fantasy points per game range on these prices, and he's a very reasonable way to afford more expensive options in a league average match-up with the Pelicans.
Update: After this writing I realized we were a little low on Andre Roberson's minutes. He's been amazing, and I'd likely slam him over Williams or Ingram.
If you want to go big, I love LeBron in an important game with the Raptors.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.57 DK - 31.76
Have you seen Morris' minutes recently? Sure, the production hasn't all clicked just yet but the opportunity on these prices is through the roof. He topped 6x points per dollar against OKC, and while he hasn't been very consistent even on these minutes, I would simply be shocked to see him not return to regularly providing at least 5x. The Thunder play the league's 6th fastest pace, and I think Markieff is the best overall value at the position tonight.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.07 DK - 35.3
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.47 DK - 27.99
Speaking of value, two more solid value options! After being quite a terrible position all season long some decent value has bubbled to the surface. Green has been phenomenal recently, averaging nearly 6.5x points per dollar in his last three games while fitting into a solid 34 minute rotation. The Pelicans are back in the basement at defending power forwards, ranking 3rd worst in the league vs. them this year. Taj meanwhile seems to offer a slightly higher ceiling while offering a lower floor as well. The Trail Blazers are actually an even better match-up than the Pelicans, ranking dead last in the league vs. 4s. I'd be happy playing both of these guys in any format.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 40.5 DK - 42.66
100% ownership on FanDuel tonight? Time will only tell. Embiid's price has risen, but so has his ownership - topping 62% at $6,200 in his last go round. Well, went off for 25/10/4 in 27 minutes against a tough defender in Bismack Biyombo, and draws the softer Denver front court here. The Sixers have come out and said we could see 28 minutes out of Embiid, and each minute really matters for a guy who's just a hair behind DeMarcus Cousins at the top of the center usage charts.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.21 DK - 32.76
Because you might want to go in a different direction in a big tournament, I actually love Gortat here. First of all, he's the same price as Embiid, which makes me think basically no one will play him. And the other piece? His rotation is locked in the 36-40 range, and he recently went off for 21 and 18 against a very tough Spurs team. The Nets have been horrible against centers this year, as usual, and they've allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing centers this year. Don't be surprised if he challenges Embiid here, since Embiid's fewer minutes should theoretically increase the variance around his production.
No one is going to play Mason Plumlee, but he's been solid recently, and if Embiid is human for once he could provide a solid way to get separation in a big tournament.
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View Comments
Embiid isn't and will never be human.
Embiid is a beast in real life, but in DFS his minutes cap limits his ceiling to the 40's. There are similar priced centers that approach a 50-60FP ceiling and a cheaper Gortat will probably outscore Embiid tonight. If Embiid were about 1K cheaper, he would be a no brainer but until his minutes cap is lifted I am staying clear.
So with Rondo out tonight do you put in the next man up or do you go with the other guys due to an increase in minutes?
Rajon Rondo has been suspended for 1 game in which he'll serve that suspension in tonight's game!
Grant! Jerian Grant! Grant and Embiid in all lineups for me.
What is the chances that I make an initial lineup then read this and only player I have that is not mentioned is Brow? This has to be a good sign, right?
Sometimes it is others not because expect everyone to play the same guys
How you aren't running Mudiay and Rodriguez is beyond me. The two worst defensive teams against PG's are playing each other. Half of the 76ers are out again including Rodirguez's min split man Bayless and Mudiay is only at 5400.
Frazier with Holliday out???