Sacramento Kings' DeMarcus Cousins (15) drives the ball past Houston Rockets' Joey Dorsey in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, April 1, 2015, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
I write it every Sunday, but Sunday is one of my favorite days to play NBA DFS. People are chasing losses and trying to get even from NFL, and let's be honest, so am I from time to time. But as NFL is ramping down NBA ramps up, and it's a perfect way to segue into the night time after the emotionally exhausting early games. Tonight's a short slate, which magnifies the mistakes that our opponent (and we) can make, so let's try and make sense of things.
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 63.35 DK - 67.20
For a short slate, this one offers both a lot of ways to spend money well and a lot of ways to spend up, so it makes sense to start with daily fantasy's most consistent big money player. The Thunder have the highest implied total of the slate, and since Westbrook is there entire team, it makes sense that he'd be a reasonable target here. He's averaged better than 5x points per dollar on his now absurd prices since November 18th, and his diversified fantasy skill set means he matches his ridiculous ceiling with an excellent floor. The Pelicans have been the 8th most generous team to opposing point guards this season, and I expect Westbrook to have his characteristically high ownership here.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.21 DK - 32.63
You can't pay up everywhere, and Rose might be exactly the kind of mid-range option to help you fill out your roster today. Setting aside his stinker against Minnesota, he's been fantastic on these prices for some time now, chipping in 39 or more fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. What we really wanted to see from Rose was a little increase in usage, and we've gotten that recently. He touched 20 shots in back to back games with the Hornets and Thunder, and on that kind of volume he's just going to be worth more than this. The Kings have slowed thing down quite a bit this season, but they still don't have a point guard that can match Rose's athleticism when he's flying around. He looks like a very safe option here and presents considerable upside as well.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.55 DK - 45.06
The tricky thing with these small slates is that we might not be able to grab all players in good match-ups, and Teague certainly qualifies there - the Clips have been a top ten team against opposing point guards this season and have been one of the best defenses overall. So why Teague? With George out of the picture, the whole Pacers offense runs through Teague. He cut the Clippers apart with pin point passing in their recent blow-out win over them, and paid 4.5x points per dollar in just 24 minutes. There's no line on the game as of this writing likely due to Vegas wanting to wait on Paul George's status - and you should too. Teague isn't playable if George returns, but he's a reasonable option if George sits again.
Consider: Chris Paul, but I don't think you can go double expensive at point guard today.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.99 DK - 27.68
KCP's stock is on the rise, and for good reason. He's shot 17 and 20 times in each of his last two games, and made a very efficient 19 of those 37 shots. Things are working in Detroit right now, and it stands to reason that they'll stick with an "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mentality. The Magic have been tough on opposing shooting guards this season (thanks largely to their slow pace of play), but beggars can't be choosers tonight. He's topped 5x points per dollar in 5 of his last 6 games, and he seems like as high a floor an option as we have at the shooting guard position tonight.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.23 DK - 31.51
We've been on Dipo since the beginning of the season for reasons I've written too many times at this point, but I'll give you the cliff's notes here. Oladipo has become more efficient from the field and from 3 thanks to defenses over-compensating on Russell Westbrook, and he's maintained the shots per minute that he had in Orlando as well. He's no longer the incredible bargain that he was a couple of weeks ago, but our lineup optimizer sees him as a value against the Pelicans here even at his increased prices.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 21.28 DK - 23.41
If you decide to go cheap at shooting guard, I really like JJ Redick here. There are a lot of similar options (KCP, Oladipo, even Fournier) at similar prices, and it's going to be tough to spend up for any of the studs today if you go mid-range everywhere. Enter Redick. He had 2 high profile duds very recently, but has paid 5x or better in the other 10 of his last 12 games. Everything about Redick profiles as the same player he was last year even if you take the two bad games into consideration, and that's a player who's simply worth more than these paltry prices. Monta Ellis seems to hate high energy guys like Redick on the wing, and if he's a step slow, the Clips could really exploit that match-up. I love Redick's floor here and I wouldn't sleep on the ceiling.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 20.34 DK - 21.29
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.75 DK - 24.21
Another position where we can potentially go cheap. Robinson is no longer the slam dunk value play (and he'll obviously be off the list altogether if George returns), but he's still been paying 4.5-5x on these prices with great regularity. Roberson is basically a slightly poor man's version of Robinson, but with a longer track record. I like Roberson's match-up better, but like Robinson's role on the team. Neither is a dream punt or anything, but I could see rostering either to make the money work.
A sea of inconsistent options, most of them in the $4,000s range. Matt Barnes put up a huge game in his last go-round and has a nice match-up with the Knicks, but had been quite bad before that. Marcus Morris can be good from time to time and plays a ton of minutes (which gives him a decent floor), but he can also disappear completely. Melo has big upside against the Kings, but with so many mouths to feed in NY I'm just not sure he can consistently pay off a salary in the $8,000s. It's a terrible position tonight, and I'm not looking forward to it.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.9 DK - 31.65
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 26.02 DK - 27.49
In a dramatic turn of events, power forward has emerged as one of the deepest positions on the night! I'm going to break things down by tiers instead of going deep on a few different players, because the price flexibility you get at this position allows you to pay the prices you need to at the others. Harris and Young are your cheaper options, and I pair them together because Harris is cheaper on DK where Young is cheaper on FD. Harris has to be considered the safer option given the role he's taken on recently - contributing a ton on the offensive end while chipping in production across multiple statistical categories. Young is more of an upside guy - the Pacers have ridden him when he's hot with George out of the lineup, but they will yank him if it isn't going well. I think they'll try him here to try and put foul pressure on the Clippers' bigs.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.32 DK - 40.48
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 45.01 DK - 46.94
As we move up the price ladder things start to get really interesting. The Pacers and Kings are both slightly better than league average match-ups, and both Griffin and Porzingis can be had at a discount relative to their salaries tonight. Porzingis was awful against Minnesota, but played his highest minutes total of the season, and there's really nothing to worry about there. On a per minute basis Blake is better in every statistical category as compared to last season, and he's cheaper than he was at the end of the year. Both seem like nice options tonight, where Blake is a little safer and Porzingis offers greater upside.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 57.36 DK - 59.31
And then there's Big Money Brow. Given the other great options here I'm not sure we should be paying up for Davis, but you can certainly make a case for it. The Pelicans are happy to play Davis 40+ minutes per night when things are close, and the Thunder play the league's 6th fastest PACE. Some people will be off him after a disappointing performance against the Clippers, but two games ago he scored 76 fantasy points against the Lakers. He frankly looks amazing to me tonight.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 52.58 DK - 55.6
There's a three headed monster at the "big money" position tonight, and Boogie might be the best value of all three. An important note before we move on - a lot of people compare players to other options at their positions, but it's important to consider players compared to the other options at their price points as well. Because really, the decision on many nights comes down to who your big money guys and who your punt guys are, with mid-range guys filling in in the middle. The case for Cousins, then? First of all, his combination of usage and minutes is absurd. Of centers with more than 30 minutes (sorry Embiid) his 35.1 usage is a full 9 points higher than Karl Anthony Towns' 26.1. He's topped 51 fantasy points in each of his last 5 starts, and is $1,000 or more cheaper than Davis or Westbrook (which really matters on these short slates). He's got an A+ match-up with the Knicks, who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Call me crazy, but this might just be Boogie Time.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 25.16 DK - 26.59
In the complete opposite direction we have Mr. Bismack Biyombo. Yes, Biyombo recently played 29 minutes without attempting a shot. But he's playing so many minutes and is such a good rebounder that it honestly barely matters. This is a bad match-up with a slow Detroit team, but our system can't help but see the value in taking a guy whose prices are well below where his minutes and statistical baseline suggest that they should be.
Consider: Andre Drummond.
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View Comments
Just to help clear up the confusion I am having this morning how is Harris cheaper on DK where he is $6100 than on FD where he is $5800? My head hurts!!!
Got 1st in part due to your advice. Thank you!