Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for TUF 24 Finale - 12/3/16

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Another season of The Ultimate Fighter, another Finale – but this time we get to see a title fight and the pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet, Demetrious Johnson. Awesome. This is also a sneaky good card for DFS because it should heavily favor those who put in the research rather than the casuals who rely on name recognition. Speaking of research, you’re here for targets so let’s get to it.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

I lied - Before the usual write-up, I want to introduce a relatively (Ep. 2) new project I’ve been working on, the Daily Fantasy Scramble. It’s a podcast recapping the main event of each UFC card as well as offering some other MMA DFS thoughts. I promise the audio issues will get better, but for now, give it a listen below:

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Ion Cutelaba ($8,900)

Vegas Line: -230
Finish Prop: -140
Career Record: 12-2, 1 NC
UFC Record: 1-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  4.29
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00
Finishes: 9 KO / 2 Sub / 10 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Jonathan Wilson

Similar to my last article, I’m choosing not to take the easy route – no Demetrious Johnson here. But as a quick note, play him. Simple as that. Ion Cutelaba is another guy in the upper tier that will be in plenty of my tournament lineups. He’s a -230 favorite and actually has the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -140. He has a track record of finishing fights and picked up his first UFC win in his last outing. Cutelaba takes on Jared Cannonier, who seems to be a similar fighter to Cutelaba’s previous opponent, Jonathan Wilson. Both guys have high output rates and I expect the fight to stay standing. Cutelaba should also have the advantage if it ends up as a clinch ground fight, he simply as more tools than Cannonier. These light heavyweights won’t let the judges factor into the decision so I’ll be a little wary of Cutelaba in cash games because of a super low floor. That being said, Cutelaba has one of the highest ceilings on the card and very well could secure a first-round finish as well as a spot on the winning tournament team.

Prediction: Cutelaba – 1^st Round KO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

Josh Stansbury ($8,000)

Vegas Line: -110
Finish Prop: +166
Career Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  4.07
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00
Finishes: 1 KO / 5 Sub / 6 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 2 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Majority Decision – Corey Hendricks

This value range is definitely the trickiest this week but with a lot of close fights that are likely to end in a decision, this is where the big money is going to be won. Josh Stansbury is a TUF alumn and teammate of the guy who absolutely burned me last week (Khalil Rountree has the ground game of a toddler – there I said it). But I’m going back to the well Saturday and taking Stansbury in his pick ‘em match-up with Devin Clark. Stansbury gives us a small amount of odds value with an $8,000 price tag on DraftKings along with his +166 ITD prop. Overall, I think that Stansbury is the better athlete and will have enough takedown defense to keep this fight standing and he could even be competent enough to take down Clark himself. Stansbury has an above average output at 4.07 significant strikes per minute. His stand-up game and athleticism should be enough for him to score 80ish points in a decision win and he is the more likely of the two fighters to find a finish. Stansbury will be viable in all formats in the opening bout of the night.

Prediction: Stansbury – Unanimous Decision

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & UNDER)

Jake Ellenberger ($7,400)

Vegas Line: +220
Finish Prop: +540
Career Record: 31-11
UFC Record: 10-7
Record In Last 5: 2-3
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.41
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 2.14
Finishes: 19 KO / 6 Sub / 14 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:  3 KO / 2 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 1^st Round TKO – Matt Brown

Admittedly, I’m doing a complete 180 from the last time I wrote about Jake Ellenberger and while I’m not totally sold on the return of “The Juggernaut” I also don’t agree with the odds and price tag in his matchup with Jorge Masvidal. Both guys are vets and both are 2-3 in their last five outings but Ellenberger is a +220 underdog in their clash on Saturday. I don’t think Masvidal will be able to get a stoppage and maybe, just maybe Ellenberger has found some of that killer instinct he always seemed to lack - his KO of Matt Brown was definitely impressive. I think this is an overall close fight but in the end my simple analysis is Ellenberger is too cheap and Masvidal is too expensive. Ellenberger is among the top value plays on the slate.

Prediction: Ellenberger – Unanimous Decision

Also Consider: Jamie Moyle

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.