James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
A semi-full Friday in the NBA has a couple of superstars on back-to-backs, KAT coming off of a career game and Joel Embiid hopefully playing on a dry court. Let's get into some DFS plays.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.17 DK - 34.28
I'm no fan of point guard tonight which is usually a sign we want to get away from the position as cheap as possible. And while Rondo isn't a punt play by any means, he does offer a nice floor in the mid tier salary range. Rondo's DFS safety comes from his ability to pitch in along all areas of the stat line. He's averaging a 8/7/7 on the season which doesn't appear all that impressive expect when you factor in that it isn't like he gets buzzed on production if one specific aspect of his game isn't working. That's an important thing to understand when it comes to "safe" players. Rondo should see plenty of court time and Cleveland's one defensive hole is Kyrie and defending the opposing point guard.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 30.64 DK - 33.28
I like this play a lot more if Millsap were to sit again. While losing Paul makes the Hawks a worse team, it helps Schroder in the usage department for sure. He took 23 shots against Phoenix last game, and while I don't have him for that kind of volume against a slower Detroit team, I do like his increased role in the offense if Millsap sits. Schroder is an off commodity in that he's only averaging 30 minutes a game out of the starting point guard slot for the Hawks but when the minutes are there he can produce. It's weird to think of him as a minutes' risk, but that's been the case. It's less of a concern with no Millsap in that they'll need his scoring even more. I like it either way, but prefer it if he's the top option on offense.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 25.61 DK - 27.51
Mostly just looking for a cheap option here. Beverley's seen his minutes increase steadily increase with close games. The only real question we have here is how the Rockets will treat him on the back-to-back. We don't really have that info yet which makes him something of a risk. Beverley needs all of his minutes to hit value even at these minutes mostly because he's the fifth option on offense. But he does contribute in ways other than offense on the rebounding end and will dish from time to time.
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 59.68 DK - 64.05
In the NBA, it can be tough playing guys on back-to-backs because we worry some about their run. And it doesn't help that Harden's back-to-backs have been blowouts both times. So we don't know exactly how Mike D'Antoni plans on playing these things. But I'm fine going to Harden for the big money tonight. The Nuggets have struggled mightily against opposing back courts so it doesn't really matter what you label Harden as (for me he's a PG, though some see it differently). The Nuggets don't really have an answer for him at all (few teams do) and he's far and away my cash game play of the night.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.32 DK - 32.68
The good news on Lavine is we saw a game two days ago with him running 42 minutes against the Knicks and few other players in the game are favored for that kind of run on a given night. The bad news is we saw the basic problem with a guy like Zach. Namely, if he's not scoring then you are left with little else. 42 minutes games him a 17/2/1 line which doesn't really come close to paying this price. I'm banking on that being somewhat of an outlier in the secondary stats and think he has a solid chance at paying off if Thibs runs the same basic "starters play all the minutes" premise he's known for.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.51 DK - 25.92
I'm not basing this pick in any way off of what he did last night. Our system doesn't see that kind of thing at all. Just want to get that out of the way first before anyone accuses me of recency bias on a dude. I'm robotic in my evaluation of these guys. But Redick is in line for increased scoring opportunities against the Pelicans who struggle on defense. He needs to score because that's the long and short of his production, but that's also built into his price. His per minute three point attempts are up over his career averages and the Clippers' offense is firing right now. I'm fine with a relative punt here.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.11 DK - 50.08
I suspect he's one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight. Lebron's price isn't exorbitant by any means and other than Harden, he represents the way to get solid money in on big salaries. This isn't a perfect matchup for Lebron but I do think Coach Lue is incentivized to play him usual big minutes in an Eastern Conference game that could mean something late in the season. Look, Lebron is Lebron. He does everything on the court and has about as solid a floor as anyone you'll see in fantasy. I don't need to run through all of the superlatives here. The key is his price remains manageable and I think you can pair him with Harden considering some of the other deals on the slate.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.68 DK - 31.55
He had the minutes restriction lifted for the first time last game against the Pistons and Crowder got back to his fantasy Swiss Army Knife ways with a 14/5/4/2 line that even saw him run a little bad shooting from the field. His price has been kept in check over the short term because of the injury issues and the minutes cap. With that off we are looking at a guy with a whole new opportunity at a total discount. This is a solid matchup against the Kings who really struggle on defense and if Crowder is seeing minutes in the mid 30's on the regular now then you can easily play him in cash games.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.27 DK - 33.21
Even off the bench I'm willing to strongly consider Chandler in this matchup. He isn't your typical reserve guy in that he will see significant minutes as the sixth man and the Nuggets play him in crunch time. He's also a volume shooter for the second unit and averages more than fifteen looks per game along with solid rebounding numbers. This projected game flow and the Rockets' makeup do suggest he'll see even more run tonight as his versatility is a huge plus for the Nuggets. The risk, as always with Chandler, comes from him coming off the bench where the minutes are much more variable.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.16 DK - 43.85
This should be a fun game to tune into for Friday. Even with the loss to the Lakers the other night, the Bulls should be able to hang with Cleveland and Love is in a great spot. The Bulls don't have a natural defensive matchup for him and he could see plenty of looks beyond the arc is he's able to range Taj and company away from the basket. Love's averaging 15 looks a game (way up per minute from last year) with the rebounds seeing a 10% jump as well. He's playing great and has clearly embraced his role in the offense (championships do that for a guy). He isn't priced out of contention assuming the game stays close and he sees those early looks.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 38.55 DK - 40.79
We had him as a top play before last game about Minnesota and he went out and delivered. A 29/8/4/2 was one of his best of the year as he battled Karl-Anthony Towns in a matchup we should see for years to come. They are two of the best two young bigs in the game and I'm fine going right back to Zinger tonight. His price continues to climb, but it's commiserate with the new confidence Jeff Hornacek is showing with dude's minutes. He's now consistently in the upper 30's of run each night and that was the only thing we were waiting for with Kristaps. He appears more comfortable in the offense and is finding his shot even while sharing the court with guys Melo and Rose.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 43.06 DK - 44.77
It's rare that we write up three expensive power forwards on a given slate given the nature of the position (read: it usually sucks) but I like Blake a lot in this spot. The Pelicans are a better team on offense now with Jrue Holiday back in the mix and this game projects as close (Clips a 2.5 favorite to open). I delineate the Pels' improvement on offense while also reserving the idea that they haven't improved much on the defensive end and Blake should be able to put in work. The Clips are coming off a back-to-back which could impact the minutes, but I love the matchup for Griffin.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 40.05 DK - 42.15
After "Floor Gate" (that's what I'm calling the debacle in Philly the other night, not sure if there's another name for it) we missed a chance to get Embiid with his minutes restriction ticking up some to (a reported) 28. That just adds to the chances of him exceeding value seeing as his current per minute fantasy scoring averages are about as good as it gets. Embiid's putting up an 18/8/1.5/2 line in only 22 minutes this season. Those numbers are truly insane for a center and his usage numbers look more than a guard's than a big man. He puts up more than half a shot per minute which means the Sixers are dribbling the ball up the court, giving him the ball and getting out of the way...on every possession. He's a clear cash game play here at extended (for him) minutes.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.66 DK - 33.02
It's easy to look at Jonas' last two games and think his production dropped in the short term, but those two games were blowouts. He's more a low 30 minutes guy with a fantastic matchup against the Lakers. LA's allowing about 5% more scoring and rebounding than league average to opposing centers. And they've been scrappy enough of late to stay in games which means I think we can see full run for Valanciunas. He's a completely reasonable price for a guy who projects for close to a double/ double thanks to the opponent and the potential pace of the game.
A quick note on Karl-Anthony Towns. I get that he put up a near-historic performance against the Knicks the other night. That's not lost on me. I do think a few too many folks will look at that game as the base game for him, and it's not.
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View Comments
Love the articles great work! Was thinking about fading Harden tonight because of his heavy minutes last night and paying up for Brow. Harden has a much better matchup however. Any thoughts?
I am fading both and going with boogie.
That was my 1st thought when i looked at the schedule. I'm going with AD. I also think LBJ may go off after the beat down last night and the matchip w/ the Bulls and D Wade. Good luck.
Sam Dekker has been getting nice run and is a nice flier for tonight. I had him last night and he put up about 25 FPS. Expect maybe more tonight.
Cavs lost to the clippers, not the Lakers
You guys and all your criticism, it's ridiculous I would like to any of you cover this much information and get every fact right. That's right I'm talking to you Goat!
What do you think about either Lou Williams or Jordan Clarkson tonight? With Russell and Young out, they are usually mentioned on here since they get a lot of minutes and have a decent matchup tonight with the Raptors.