Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Nov. 10, 2016, in Denver. The Warriors won 125-101. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
I'm writing this fresh off of losing Joel Embiid to "condensation," so you'll have to forgive me if my writing is a little sadder than usual here. Only have myself to blame for firing him in there regardless, but I underestimated the Sixers' ineptitude drastically once again. Live and learn, I suppose. The great thing about daily fantasy NBA? We get to go back to the drawing board today.
It's a weird slate, to be honest. Some big spreads, slow teams, solid defenses, and fewer games than Wednesday or Friday. But you don't pay zero dollars to read my whines, so let's do this thing.
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.83 DK - 41.37
A word on point guards before we get started - this isn't a slate for the faint of heart. The Clippers are a pretty bad match-up for opposing point guards, so we're going to have to look past match-up to justify this pick. First things first - Kyrie has taken a rare sort of leap this season by adding to his shot total while also dramatically increasing his efficiency, particularly from 3. Our projection system sees him as still underpriced as compared to his new baseline thanks to an erratic set of minutes. The minutes are bonkers largely thanks to Cleveland's frequent involvement in blowouts, though, and in a game where Vegas sees the Cavs as favored by 5 points Kyrie should play the high end of what he has been this season. More minutes means even more shots and counting stats, and I think he'll be a fine way to start your lineups if safety's all you're after.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 27.69 DK - 29.99
But how about some upside, while you're here? I mentioned this wasn't for the faint of heart, right? Harrison has played as many as 40 minutes in the starting role, and while he's far from a per-minute beast, he's turned in some excellent multipliers on these prices as a starter this season. On Wednesday he had paid 5x points per dollar by half time (which is when I'm writing this), and while you can't plan on him to put up huge numbers on a nightly basis, he at least offers a reasonable floor at a very shallow position tonight. The Magic had been better against point guards this season, but DJ Augustin represents a defensive downgrade for them and I don't think Harrison will be swallowed up here.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 23.41 DK - 25.39
More of an off-beat tourney play than anything, but I do think Beverley is interesting. Vegas doesn't see this game as being particularly close, but if it is, it might be because Beverley has a hot shooting night or plays excellent defense. One thing we do know is that this one will be fast paced, since Golden State plays the 3rd fastest pace in the league, meaning more counting stats for everyone involved. Another interesting wrinkle here is that there's a wide disparity between Curry and Thompson defensively, and since Harden will almost certainly draw Klay, Beverley will have a better match-up than usual. This is far from a sure thing, but it wouldn't shock me if Beverley has the best fantasy game of his season.
Point guard is way worse on FD than DK tonight, so take that for what you will. Having to play two PGs on FanDuel means you're probably rostering someone who's less than safe, but on DK you should be all set. Make sure you manage your risk!
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Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 56.17 DK - 60.72
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.79 DK - 35.82
Houston has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and Golden State ranks 7th. The only fly in the ointment here is the spread - the Dubs being favored by 10 means this one may not stay close, and in that case either player could wind up getting his minutes buzzed off. The Rockets trailing will probably not hurt Harden too much since he's the only game plan if they fall being, but Klay might be a little bit risky here. Thankfully we can say nearly for sure that he'll be drawing Harden and not Beverley (who will presumably have his hands full with Steph), and Curry's bad match-up against Beverley could open up a lot of looks for Thompson. I could see rolling with both of these guys here.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.28 DK - 32.6
Kilpatrick has averaged better than 20 points per game as a starter this season, and he scored a career high 38 in a tough match-up (albeit a double overtime game) against the Clippers. The price is certainly climbing here, but so is Kilpatrick's usage, and the Bucks are a top 10 match-up for opposing shooting guards. Kilpatrick isn't a one trick pony, either - he rebounds the position well and is a decent passer as well. While we're getting up to the higher end of what I'd like to pay for him I don't mind penciling him in when the Nets are actually projected to stay in the game, which is the case here. I like Kilpatrick in any format.
Shooting guard is actually pretty deep tonight. I like Tony Allen again if the Grizz are still super short handed, and you can make a strong case for Giannis as well. A good problem to have, really.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 47.67 DK - 50.68
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 49.13 DK - 52.23
Can we pay up at small forward today? If people get their minutes we can. The Clippers are playing much better defense this season, but still don't have an answer at small forward. Mbah A Moute doesn't get there, and playing Paul Pierce in this one is basically conceding. Lebron has been wildly consistent yet again this season, spreading his production further into rebounds and assists, and his minutes are safer in what rates to be a close match-up. If LeBron is safe, Durant is his higher upside little brother. He's topped 53 fantasy points in each of his last 3 (admittedly great) match-ups, and has a top 10 match-up with the Rockets here. We're concerned about the spread once again, but as with Thompson, Beverley's presence on Curry means there should be more shots to go around. I like him quite a bit here.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 33.74 DK - 35.53
I'm writing this before the Mavs/Spurs games has started, but frankly, that game doesn't really change my evaluation of Barnes. With Dirk on the shelf yet again we should see more of the Barnes show, and it's a show I'm kind of in to tonight. Barnes has shot 24 shots twice this season, and both were in games Dirk missed. A deal sweetener here is that Williams will likely sit on the second half of a back to back, meaning more eats for Mr. Barnes. The Hornets, meanwhile, have been awful against opposing small forwards this season in spite of their slow pace. They've allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and Barnes looks like a reasonably high floor play.
Keep an eye on the Grizzlies. If they're still missing a ton of guys Troy Williams will once again be a great play.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37 DK - 38.59
Jabari predictably disappeared for 2 games right after I called him "one of the safer up and coming commodities," but I'm reassured to some degree after watching him shoot 17 shots and pay nearly 5x points per dollar after losing minutes in a blowout to Cleveland. He gets a great match-up with Brooklyn, who has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing 4s this season. Like a lot of players on less than great teams, Parker's have been bruised by blowouts recently, and if he gets his full run he's a fantastic option on a night where good PF options are lacking.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.63 DK - 28.9
Did I mention PF options are lacking? Because, man. Like Kilpatrick, Booker's price is certainly getting up there - but he's sort of been worth it. He's averaged a double double with solid defensive contributions in his last 4 games, and gets a solid match-up with the Bucks' rotating group of big men (and even Parker, who's less than polished defensively). Booker's inclusion here is also just a nod to how shallow this position is tonight. I don't know that I'd normally be thrilled to pay this price for production that I could believe could come or go, but Booker feels better than the other options I'm aware of as of this writing. Hopefully a nice punt will come forward.
The high profile guys. I'm not convinced that this is a night we want to pay up at power forward. Blake has a slow match-up with the Cavs, and Kevin Love has a tough match-up with the Clips' front court. Draymond Green looks like a reasonable option against Houston, but he's kind of expensive on FanDuel for the ceiling he provides. If I can, I'll be looking to go cheaper tonight.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.68 DK - 36.32
Jeez, I'm realizing that basically every position is tough tonight. But I do think Gasol is a pretty reasonable option, even in a vacuum. He played 35 minutes the last time the Grizzlies were on the 2nd half of a back to back, and he gets a solid match-up against the foul-happy Biyombo (or the less than defensively stellar Vucevic). The big driver on Gasol has to be his floor - with Memphis missing so many ball handlers, they need to rely on the big man much more than usual on the offensive end. I think he'll be up to the task, and even the short handed Grizzlies are only 1 point underdogs to the hapless Magic. I wouldn't prioritize Gasol if a good punt comes around, but he's a good way to not get killed at the position.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 30.73 DK - 32.06
We don't have a great sample size for what Capela can do to the Warriors, but we CAN say that he has destroyed them on the boards on a per-minute basis in the last two years. He had 12 rebounds in 17 minutes in a playoff game last year, and 8 in another 17 earlier in the season. Capela's athleticism should let him stay on the court even against the smaller Golden State lineups, and the fast pace of this game could mean lots of boards and put backs. The big issue here is the game script. If the Rockets fall behind Capela will fall out of the offensive picture altogether, making him riskier than Gasol. Still, he had a career high 21 points just a few days ago, and his stock seems to be rising.
Some cheap, potentially erratic guys: John Henson and Bismack Biyombo. Both are capable of either disappearing thanks to losing minutes, or putting up a solid double-double. I can't in good conscience recommend either as safe, though.
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View Comments
Jeff green doesn't play for Memphis. U maybe mean JaMychal Green? Grizzlies so short on players I doubt they will be able to rest anyone on 2nd night of a B2B.
Hey Matt - total brain fart. My mind conflated the Jeff Green injury stuff with Memphis' injury woes. Thanks for the catch! Fixed the article.
What about andrew bogut tonight on dk? He seems safe at 4k. Or is a back to back going to cut into his minutes?
Oh nevermind just saw the news
nba tough this season. posted 324 last nite in gpps and only returned me 4.5 x my investment. at least I cashed breaking a 3 day drought. thanks for couple good plays last nite.
I really like Henson 2 nite for gpps
Need to break my drought and funds are drying! HELP!
Yeah, I had 305.6 last night and didn't cash. That number of points is ridiculous considering how many people had guys in the Sac-Phila game.
Last couple days were really bad. 313 on FD but low 200's on DK. Highest on DK last couple days; 272. Monday was different story. $$$. One thing I know, I can never trust a SA player because of Popovich. Couldn't begin to guess how much that dude cost me. Luck gotta change. Hopefully tonight on NFL