Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
A full Wednesday of NBA action coming at you here with plenty of matchups to whet your DFS whistle. We get the Lakers and Suns going which is always good for the opponents of said teams. Plus some key injuries open up opportunity for many a team. Let's get to it.
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.64 DK - 40.96
With Paul George off the court this season Teague's usage jumps from 20.6 to 26.2 and he's basically the full offensive facilitator when PG misses time. The latter's already been ruled out for Wednesday (thank goodness for early news) and I think we can rather safely run Teague out in cash games. The issue with no George is the Pacers were already a weaker team and they get real bad without their superstar. Some blowout risk because of that though Portland has issues of their own. Teague is taking more shots this season with his new team and the price isn't fully corrected for when he's the primary usage guy on offense.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 49.99 DK - 52.98
There are a ton of guys to love at point guard tonight and this will be one of the most difficult to choose between in cash games. I literally had seven guys to write up before finally narrowing it down here. Wall should be in a shootout with Russ and company and this game projects to run up and down the court. He struggled last game with the turnovers, and the shooting is still an issue. But Wall does so much else on the court and ball dominates for such long stretches that I think theses prices are fine for cash games and on DK he should be staring at the the double-double bonus as well. OKC's allowing well more than league average scoring to point guards this season as they spend so much time in track meets.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.17 DK - 31.9
The Phoenix Suns are just the cure for your DFS ills when they take the court. That's because you can target just about anyone against them and feel pretty good about it. Schroder's minutes have rounded back into form lately after a rough patch and he's now facing the fastest-paced team in the league who also play a bottom third defense. He's averaging 18 shots per game over the last three and is taking more threes. Those are signs in the positive direction for Schroder as he gains more confidence in this offense. He's not going to be a huge assist guy with his profile, but the volume presented by the Suns' pace makes him an excellent player here.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 23.02 DK - 25.1
Well Mike Conley is out with a broken back and that leaves all of the Memphis starting PG minutes up for grabs. It stands to reason Harrison is the beneficiary here though he's a relatively unknown quantity. He's had some decent fantasy games when given the minutes though he's not much of a shooter at all, running only 16% from the field for the season. It sure seems like that's epic run bad and could do for some regression with more court time. But he isn't a fantastic player even with some shooting upticks. But if you think he's looking at minutes in the low-to-mid 30's at these prices then he's a solid plug and play.
Strongly consider Rajon Rondo
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Go cheap at shooting guard my friends, go cheap.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.22 DK - 32.22
One tricky thing about many a shooting guard (at least the traditional ones like Lavine) are you need to count almost 100% on their scoring in order to hit value. They are typically spot up shooters and little else. That's the case with Zach who's averaging almost 20 points per game but only 3 rebounds and assists each per game. Those secondary fantasy stats matter in hitting his salary floor because if the shot isn't falling you are in big trouble. He's right at the breaking point with this matchup, but if he plays minutes in the very high 30's then I'm not as concerned.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.54 DK - 26.09
He's not necessarily a guy I thought I'd be thinking about too much at this point in the season, but this is DFS and opportunity presents itself in a myriad of ways. He's one of those unfortunate fantasy souls who can stand around on a basketball court for long stretches and not do a whole hell of a lot. But the minutes are there with Winslow and Waiters (and possibly Tyler Johnson) out. He's been playing over 30 minutes per game on lock with the Heat dealing with injury issues. Again, he's not that good, but at shooting guard I'm fine getting away cheap and hoping for the best with significant court time.
Shooting guard is about as bad as it gets throughout the rest of the slate, and even the two guys above don't provide me with that warm and fuzzy feeling I like. There are other cheaper names to consider but they come with risk. Tony Allen should see increased run with the Memphis backcourt in shambles, but it isn't secure. One would think Josh Richardson's opportunity would increase without Waiters and Tyler Johnson, but that wasn't the case last game. And Monta Ellis is interesting without Paul George. But none of these guys jumps out as cash game plays. Might have to take a wait-and-see approach here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 49 DK - 50.97
The Bulls are -10 favorites heading into this one so there's some blowout concern on Jimmy Buckets. But that's really the only true worry because he's been a fantasy lock when the minutes are there. The offense runs through him even with Wade on the court (though they do like to stagger the two) and he's been putting up more shots per minute than at any other time in his career. That includes more threes where he's shooting over 40% on the season. It all adds up for Butler as a high floor cash play even with the possibility he doesn't see the 4th quarter. The rebounds are also at a higher per minute rate than his career averages with the Bulls playing at a slightly faster pace this season.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.64 DK - 27.19
With TJ Warren out, the Suns have struggled to find a rotation they've felt comfortable running that won't get them totally blitzed by the other team. Tucker played major minutes last game at the three when Earl Watson realized the three guard set with Brandon Knight wasn't working at all. Tucker is a dude who needs every possible minute on the court to hit value. But he will get corner three looks and rebounds enough to meet his floor projection. The Hawks are a real good defensive team so I'm not super pumped on this one, but if you think he's seeing run in the high 30's then lock and load.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.52 DK - 34
He got into foul trouble last game which killed the upside on what was looking like a fantastic fantasy line. In the right matchup he'll see upwards of 40 minutes and this could be that game where they'll need his skills in transition, on defense and the spot up three. Porter's per minute rebounding is way up this season and he's taking about 10% more shots per contest. But the real story on otto is just how much the Wiz need him on the court. That's where we need to look in DFS assuming opportunity is key. OKC has a lock down defender in Andre Roberson but I don't he'll be on Porter throughout with the Wiz's other weapons.
Strongly consider Wilson Chandler if Danilo Gallinari is out again.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.86 DK - 36.18
Thad, like Jeff Teague, is another guy who sees a noticeable difference in usage with Paul George off the court. He jumps from around 16 to 20 usage and the Pacers need him for more minutes on the court in general. He isn't much of a defender, but he will see shots in the mid teens when the Pacers are short handed. That looks to be the case again tonight against the Blazers. It helps Young as well that Portland doesn't have much of an interior presence and are light on big bodies to crowd the lane. Again, the big story for Thad here is the minutes as he sees a noticeable volume increase when George sits. Indiana comes in as dogs, but the blowout concern isn't overwhelming.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 42.14 DK - 44.23
Target guys against the Suns. I really don't know another way to put it. They are bad on defense as it stands, but are really awful against opposing power forwards. They are allowing 6% more scoring than league average to the position and 8% more rebounding. I know folks get tilted on Millsap because of his propensity to disappear from games, and I get that. But that's somewhat built into his price and this matchup is almost too good pass up. His numbers this season are generally in line with what he did with Horford, so there hasn't been a huge shift with Dwight on the court.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 38.16 DK - 40.16
Jeff Hornacek's finally committing to Kristaps for long run and it's paying from a fantasy perspective. Over his last five games he's averaging 19 looks from the field and putting up a very solid 22/8 line. The only real concern with 'Staps in the past was the, seemingly, inexplicable burn off in minutes. But that doesn't appear to be the case now with the Knicks committed to nurturing his development by getting him on the court. This isn't a fantastic matchup against a KAT/ Dieng tandem but the game projects as close and the Knicks have a solid implied total.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.93 DK - 43.85
At some point the fantasy upside will dissipate thanks to the Sixers' imposed minutes cap. But, unbelievably, I don't think we are there yet. Embiid is, in a word, ridiculous. In only 23 minutes per game this season he's averaging an 18/8, blocking almost 2.5 per game and shooting 50% from three with more than two attempts per game. These numbers just aren't real for a seven footer and he very much looks like the future of the game. But man that minutes cap. It throws things into question from a safety perspective. Tonight he'll face a Kings squad who doesn't defend the center well at all and Embiid could be in for a solid line without much court time. We are finally pushing up against the very edges of his value considering his tag and minutes, but that it's even close it amazing.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.24 DK - 31.43
The Blazers will play matchup ball with their big men from time to time, making a guy like Plumless somewhat iffy at these prices. You need to count on him getting 30 minutes plus, but if he does then I love the floor against the Pacers. Indiana is very weak on the interior in their current construct and Plumlee's an interesting C commodity. He dishes as well as any big man in the game with closet to five assists per game in addition to the 10/7 line he puts up on average. The assists provide a great way to offset the lack of scoring and I do think he has an advantage in this matchup.
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View Comments
What a crazy night. Had 4 guys on Fd with under 15 points and still cashed. Anyone have strategies on building bankroll? I just came back over to NBA and have hit 14 of 14, but I haven't risked much. Tempted to ball out since I'm batting 1000.00
Go to the homepage and click on Strategy and read Doug's Bankroll Management article. It is excellent.
Thanks Chris! Question - why aren't we liking Bledsoe more? I understand Suns will probably lose, but Atlanta gives out the most pg points in the top 3rd of the league, w TJ Warren out, it leaves even more shots for bled.
Hey guys
Every single tournament I enter I win but I am having trouble building my bankroll. Any tips? Also is anyone's bs meter going off