Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/29/16

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Point Guards

Chris Paul FD - $8800 DK - $8900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.36 DK - 43.59
Let me start this whole thing off by saying that today's a real tough one in DFS. We've got a bunch of slow teams, some potential blowouts and a lot of ugly matchups. Point guard is as dicey as they come tonight and I don't feel fantastic about rostering Paul though playing him is less about CP3 and more about how thin the position is coming in. The Clips are heavy favorites against the Nets which could cut into his minutes, and he isn't exactly the safest guy in the current way he's running the LAC offense. You aren't paying a huge premium on him tonight and his per minute stats are in line with what he did last year with the rebounds actually up. What we're worried about here is the blowout, but considering the lack of options at PG you likely can lock in CP3's floor.

Tim Frazier FD - $5100 DK - $5500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.3 DK - 28.02
Jrue Holiday FD - $7300 DK - $6800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.48 DK - 33.11
Man, do I ever wish the Pels would play Holiday more minutes. If he was in the mid 30's in terms of run then this wouldn't even be a question. But they've been conservative with Jrue since coming back from family leave and you can basically pencil him in for 30-31 minutes. Meanwhile, Frazier's seen more in two guard sets and New Orleans has been fine running them together at times. What we love here is the matchup against the Lakers who, while feisty, still play at the fourth fastest pace and third worst defensive efficiency. I don't even mind pairing these guys together on FanDuel considering their respective prices though it's a little closer with Holiday. He's getting up double digits shots per game since coming back, but the minutes' cap gives him such a limited ceiling.

Frazier on the other hand, has seen a price drop since Jrue's return which weakened his grip on the New Orleans starting point guard position. He's still seen double digit shot attempts in four of the last six games with assist totals in the mid 7's on average. These two, plus Brow (see below) could make for a high cash game floor.

Consider Isaiah Whitehead on the cheap

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Shooting Guards

Jordan Clarkson FD - $5200 DK - $6200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.63 DK - 27.36
Louis Williams FD - $5000 DK - $5700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.96 DK - 28.81
Neither guy starts, but both still sees plenty of minutes off of the bench as the Lakers throw out Jose Calderon into the starting lineup (only to pull him). Luke Walton isn't interested in playing the latter any kind of minutes, leaving Clarkson plenty of run at both the one and the two. He's seeing more shots per minute this season (exit Kobe helps that) and is a fine enough three point shooter when he sees the looks at 35%. Since D'Angelo Russell went down, Clarkson's see a slight usage bump and has taken close to 16 shots per game over the last four. This one should be up and down the court with very little defense. I'm fine with Clarkson coming off the bench even for cash games.

Williams is in much the same boat. He's riskier than Clarkson in that the run isn't quite as robust. And the guy really needs to score to hit value. But with the Laker backcourt running a little thin I think he makes a fine GPP play. Dude comes in off the bench and just chucks, getting up double digit looks almost no matter his court time.

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $10000 DK - $9200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 53.41 DK - 55.61
The Cavs aren't crazy high favorites in this one and Vegas thinks the Bucks can keep the game on the closer side. The Greek Freak isn't always the easiest guy to sweat in DFS because he'll take long stretches off from doing much of anything. But his bottom line is about as good as it gets with dude putting it all together this season. Milwaukee's been running more sets with Giannis controlling the offense and he's putting up a fantasy-heavy 22/8/6/2/2 line this season which has the price continuing to climb. The 10K tag on FD is a little tough to stomach, but he's a fantastic play on DraftKings. He doesn't always rate with the other fantasy superstars in the NBA, but he's right there. And one could argue he's running bad from beyond the arc at only 18%.

Consider Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard FD - $8400 DK - $8400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 44.36 DK - 46.39
We've got some blowout concern with the Spurs tonight as they enter the game -13.5 favorites against the Magic who look like a total and complete mess right now. Kawhi's seen an uptick in scoring this season thanks to a steadily increasing usage rate in the Spurs' offense. He's seen 10% bump in his per minute shot attempts this season thanks to a more concentrated effort in shooting threes. Kawhi definitely feels a little risky because of the blowout potential, but small forward is awfully tough. You have to count on Kawhi getting it done (possibly) in the first three quarters. That's possible against a defensively deficient Magic squad.

Aaron Gordon FD - $4100 DK - $4600
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 24.16 DK - 25.39
He drew the start last game and played 32 minutes as Frank Vogel still tries to figure out what the hell he's doing with his rotations. But Gordon struggled through a career worst 0-12 shooting night that sunk his overall line. He still grabbed 8 boards and handed out three assists. You need to have a short memory in DFS and looking at that 0-12 could have you thinking something's broken. Personally, I don't mind going back to Gordon even with the tough matchup. He's super cheap on FD for a starter playing in the low 30's and you aren't likely to see that bad a shooting night again. I think this is a great time to buy low.

Brandon Ingram FD - $3800 DK - $4300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 22.49 DK - 24.31
The rookie definitely falls into that category of NBA players who need every single minute on the court in order to hit value. This is an issue for some small forwards as they trend toward corner three/ wing guys who aren't asked to do much else on the court. The rebounds are up a tick over the last two games, but for the most part this guy's been a spot-up shooter and that's about it. But like I said for Clarkson and Sweet Lou, the loss of Russell opens up more minutes to go around for the Lakers. Ingram should be looking at run close to 30 tonight and the game projects as the highest scoring on the night. He offers salary relief if you think the minutes are there and small forward (like every other position) isn't easy on this slate.

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis FD - $12000 DK - $11600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 56.41 DK - 58.51
He'll likely be the chalk play across all lineups tonight and for good reason. Dude's playing at such a high level this season and the return of Jrue Holiday has made the team better as they've won four out of six since he came back. It hasn't cut into Davis' usage much (if at all) with him averaging 23 shots per game (not counting the injury-shortened ATL game) and putting up a disgusting 38/12 in that time (again, not counting the ATL game). He's in the elite/superstar stratosphere and having better players on the court only helps his game. Against the Lakers he'll be the highest owned big money guy on the slate and not someone I'm interested in fading here.

Frank Kaminsky FD - $4700 DK - $5400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.29 DK - 33.92
He's still in the starting five with Marvin Williams on the shelf and the price hasn't come up to match the new opportunity. He saw reduced minutes in a Charlotte blowout last night, but should be a solid cash game play tonight against the Pistons. He's playing minutes in the 30's and above with plenty of usage even with the starters. He looks at 12-14 shots per and can see around four looks from beyond the arc. He's not a huge rebounding guy as a four, relying more on the stretch part of the the "stretch four" designation. He's been a popular play of late and that should continue again tonight.

Kevin Love FD - $8400 DK - $8200
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 41.41 DK - 43.82
I like him a bit more on DK considering the extra 0.5 points for made threes over there and he's shooting lights out from beyond the arc. He's likely running good from out there, but Lebron and company are also finding him plenty of great looks. Loves' scoring has spiked this season thanks to about 30% more shots in general and aforementioned success from three. He's also been rebounding at a better per minute rate than last season and comes in as a high floor play against the Bucks. He's not as good per dollar as the two plays above, but strikes me as a GPP play tonight.

Centers

Pau Gasol FD - $6100 DK - $5500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.87 DK - 30.99
He's not the same fantasy player we knew in Chicago (or LA) and his role has shifted with the Spurs who manage their offense and the minutes. But Gasol is in a plus matchup here against the Magic even in they are starting Biyombo over Vuce. He can range away from the rim on the pick and roll and won't cost much. He's a great value on DraftKings if you think he's playing minutes in the high 20's/ low 30's. He's averaging an 11/7/3 line which is fine considering the price. Again, Orlando has trouble defending the center position and are an average D team on the whole.

Bismack Biyombo FD - $4200 DK - $4300
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 22.79 DK - 23.93
The good news on Biyombo first: in the new Frank Vogel minutes' carousel, he's risen into the starting lineup and is now out there for 30+ minutes per game. That's the good stuff. The bad news is he's doing almost nothing with the run. He's never been really anything of a scorer, but the rebounding hasn't been there in the short term either. I think the latter is somewhat of an outlier and his per minutes career boarding numbers just don't reflect what he's done in the short term. That being said, I can understand being hesitant here. But you aren't paying much, to anything, with Biyombo and it really feels like the rebounding numbers in the short term are the exception not the norm if he's on the court for more than 30 minutes per game.

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