Sacramento Kings' DeMarcus Cousins (15) drives the ball past Houston Rockets' Joey Dorsey in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, April 1, 2015, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
Hello, DFS NBA friends! I'm shaking off the cobwebs from a little writing hiatus to bring you Sunday's picks, and boy, is there a lot to unpack. Lots of injury news yet to be released, and lots of picks that will be contingent upon said news. That being said, Sundays are often a phenomenal time to play daily fantasy basketball specifically because football is going on at the same time. Let's use this article as a little primer to get you going before you really sink your teeth in after the injury news has shaken out.
A quick note - there are two pretty distinct slates today, and I doubt many of you are playing full day slates of hoops (at least, not the sane ones among you). In this article I'm simply going to highlight some of the best overall plays - no promises that you'll get a full lineup's worth of either here. If you want access to projections for every player on both slates, read on!
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 24.53 DK - 27.68
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 29.88 DK - 32.58
We're off to a fast start when it comes to needing news to proceed. Murray seems to finally have found his NBA sea legs, and we're now on 4 straight games where he's been phenomenal on these prices. His stock is dependent upon the number of shots that are available - so the return of any of the Barton/Gallo/Harris group will ding him eventually. I think we get another run at him here though. As for Bayless, we are going to want clarification that he'll be both playing and starting (thanks to his wrist injury), but he's just a high floor guy on these prices even in a terrible match-up. I'll take Murray as the better play of the two simply based on the fact that Phoenix plays both fast and bad.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.06 DK - 44.45
The other side of this Phoenix/Denver game doesn't look so bad, either. Bledsoe is playing mid-high 30s minutes per game right now, and has averaged better than 5x points per dollar on these rising prices in his last 3 games. While those were solid match-ups, this one is simply great. The Nuggets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and Murray/Nelson/Mudiay are about as loose a trio as you'll find in a defensive backcourt. I don't mind going double cheap at PG tonight, but Bledsoe should probably be the first guy on your list if one of our cheap plays falls through (or you think Bayless is too risky in a likely blowout).
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 22.83 DK - 25.1
Kind of unexciting, but I thought Beverley was worth pointing out here for a couple of reasons. Okay, mostly 2 reasons. First of all, he's back up to his pre-injury minutes. Second of all, he's cheaper than he will be once the prices catch up to his current minutes. He's also handling the ball more than some thought, dishing 10 assists over his last two games. Beverley will never be a high ceiling play thanks to his reluctance on the offensive end, but his across the board contributions (particularly on the boards) make him a high floor play if we wind up without the punt plays I think we'll have as of this writing. He's also solid for big tournaments, simply because no one will play him.
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 52.74 DK - 57.8
A lot of this recommendation is buoyed by the fact that shooting guard is simply terrible today, but you also will have to pay up somewhere, and Harden's a fine spot to do that. He has relinquished some of his ball handling duties to Patrick Beverley, but that didn't stop him from dropping a triple double on the Kings in his last go-round. He's dipped below 50 fantasy points just twice in the month of November, and in a league average match-up with the Trail Blazers, he's a safe place to invest big dollars without getting your face kicked in.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 23.34 DK - 25.86
It's not exactly injury dependent since Warren won't be back for this one, but Knight's role will depend on the Suns sticking with their small ball line-up that features Booker at the 3. Let's be clear from the start - this is not the safest of plays - but there's a lot to like here from an upside perspective. There aren't many guys in Knight's price range that have shot 20 times in their current roles, but Knight passes that test. He also disappears from time to time. Still, in a fast game against a team with terrible backcourt defenders, there is a ton of upside here at a position that lacks both upside and safety.
A morass of unexciting guys with issues.
I started writing up a couple of different guys here, but it didn't seem right to give any top billing over the others. Evan Fournier is a steady bet for 34+ minutes and 13 shots in a fair match-up. Sean Kilpatrick has upside, but the Nets are both erratic and awful. Monta Ellis has had some good games with Paul George out, and has disappeared at times as well. Wes Matthews? Gulp. Giannis looks kind of overpriced. Not a shooting guard slate for the faint of hearts, my friends.
Keep an eye on the Nick Young news. If he sits, Jordan Clarkson would be the chalk play of the day at shooting guard. As of this writing it looks like Swaggy P is going to play, though.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 21.95 DK - 23.44
With Paul George out for this one, Glenn Robinson III is a slam dunk punt to help you pay up elsewhere. It's a basic price and opportunity mismatch on FanDuel - he's got a 4.5x points per dollar floor with 7x+ points per dollar upside, even in a tough match-up with the defensively minded Clips. He might be out of range on DK, but he'll anchor my FanDuel cash game lineups for sure unless something dramatic changes here.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 34.36 DK - 36.8
He'll be super-chalk on FanDuel if Gallinari and Barton are out again, and with good reason. He's now got 2 50+ fantasy point performances in the starting role, and you just aren't going to find guys who consistently shoot 20 times per game with double digit rebounding potential as well. The Suns have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, but that's only a deal sweetener for a guy who will be at least 10% more expensive if his role stays as is. Slam dunk play in any format, though you might want to fade him in big tournaments just due to his likely high ownership.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 51.63 DK - 55.17
This one has the trappings of a blowout on paper, but the Cavs beat the Sixers by a single point earlier this season, and the Sixers will be with their full complement of players, such as it is. And even if it is a blowout, it will likely be at LeBron's capable hands. He dealt an absurd 14 assists in the face of the Sixers' young and lost defense in their first meeting this season, and while this is far from safe thanks to the high blowout risk, the upside potential is very real on a short slate of games that lacks a lot of big money options.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 43.86 DK - 45.96
Blake has stumbled from a fantasy perspective in his last two contests, but there's nothing to worry about here. He's still at 3 year highs when it comes to points and rebounds per minute, and the only reason the per game stats aren't highs in that time frame is because the Clips have blown so many people out. In this game he'll get a terrific match-up with a Pacers team that simply can't guard power forwards - they've allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing 4s this season - and I think this is the cheapest you'll be able to buy him for quite some time going forward.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.97 DK - 43.47
I'm not exactly sure why we are getting Millsap for such a bargain all of a sudden, but I'll take it. Nothing about Millsap's underlying game has changed for the worse whatsoever this season. In fact, he's shooting more shots per minute and netting more assists as well. His rebounds and blocks are down slightly, but are well within the range of statistical variation, and he's passing the eyeball test as the Hawks' best player by a fair margin. He had a solid run of putting up 5x points per dollar on these prices before a couple of blowouts dulled his appeal, but this is a perfect spot for him to bounce back. The Lakers will either be without Julius Randle, or playing a hobbled Julius Randle, and they've already allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. High floor, huge upside.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 26.84 DK - 28.27
This is dependent upon Chandler staying on the bench, but Len looks great if he's starting again. He played 29 minutes in spite of having 5 fouls in their last match-up with Minnesota, and Phoenix really doesn't have a lot of reasons to stunt Len's development by not giving him a starter's minutes at this point. The Nuggets have been less terrible against power forwards than they have been against other positions, but the case for Len here is mostly based on his per-minute production on these prices. He's historically been good for 4.5x-5x points per dollar easy on 25-30 minutes per game, and that shouldn't change in at worst a league average match-up here.
If Julius Randle is out again, keep an eye on Larry Nance Jr. once again.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.1 DK - 51.71
Not a terrible spot to spend up at all, and there's a decent chance he'll be the chalk big money guy of the day. The Nets have actually been the 3rd worst team against opposing centers this season, and Cousins has posted back to back 50+ point fantasy performances after taking a game off in limited minutes against the Raptors. Boogie becomes even better when he smells blood in the water, and Brook Lopez and company? That certainly qualifies. Cousins has increased his FG% this season in spite of adding a whole extra 3 per game, and he's shooting those at a 38% clip as well. Preparing for full beast mode domination here, and I won't settle for anything less!
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 35.49 DK - 37.19
Vuc helped DFSR users win thousands on Saturday as a 3% start for us on DraftKings, exceeding our expectations for both minutes and performance. He's topped 44 fantasy points in each of his last 2 starts, and he remains just $6,100 there. And we might be low on his minutes! It's easy to forget given the "what have you done for me lately" DFS mentality, but Vucevic was a solid $8,000 player just a year ago, and this is a big discount for what he can do if he's playing low 30s minutes consistently. The Bucks have been stone cold terrible against centers this season, allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing bigs this year. They can't figure out their center position, and a solid post-up option like Vucevic should eat them for lunch.
Consider: Clint Capela. Another guy who is just underpriced based on his current role, and a fine off-beat option if you don't want the chalk tonight.
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Most vague write up ever. Sorry not sorry.