Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Week 12

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Week 12 NFL Stacks

Looking back at Week 11 results I feel like we got out alive and actually did pretty well considering all the injuries and low scoring games. Each of the four quarterbacks in the stacks article threw for 300+ yards or multiple touchdowns highlighted by the top stack Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers once again provided big fantasy numbers despite a team struggling around him. With absolutely no running game don't expect the volume to decrease anytime soon.

Week 12 is a bit of a different animal. With three Thursday games on Thanksgiving it leaves us with a smaller 12 game main slate on Sunday and 13 if you include the Monday night game. Looking through the Vegas data there is just one game projected for more than 50 total points but nine teams are projected to score more than 25 points giving us a ton of options to sort through. I will once again turn to the Player Lab tool to assist in breaking every player down and identifying the top plays through the multiple filters available. Not only can you turn these filters on and off you can also customize them to your liking.

 

This week I am going to start with the following filters as it quickly filtered out most of the field. I adjusted the "High Vegas O/U" to 47 or more points, the "High Proj Att" to 40 or more and the "Poor Defense vs Pass" to 25th or worse. Let's take a look.

 

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
QB - Tom Brady
Elite Option - Julian Edelman
Value Option - James White, Dion Lewis

Like I mentioned above, the filters I chose narrowed the field down to just two options. I will lead off with Tom Terrific who has been an absolute beast since returning from suspension to open the season. He has thrown for 300+ yards or multiple touchdowns in all six games. Even without Gronkowski last week he threw it up 40 times, completing just 24 but totaled 280 yards and FOUR touchdowns. Unfortunately, it looks like Brady and the Patriots will be without Gronk once again as he is 50/50 at best to suit up. Even if he does he will be far from 100% making it an extremely risky play. Without Gronk in the picture it is pretty clear who is going to receive the target share. Enter Julian Edelman who has been seeing 7-10 targets for five straight weeks leading up to his explosion last week where he was targeted 17 times. He caught eight of those for 77 yards and a touchdown. If you are looking to add some some elite players from other teams to your stack take a look at the receiving threats in the Pats backfield. The Jets rank 2nd in Defense vs. the Run so don't expect another 100+ yard game from bowling ball LeGarrette Blount. Instead look to James White or Dion Lewis who both come at discount prices on both sites. Both backs saw 5+ targets each last week with White having the bigger game gaining 63 yards and a touchdown catching all six of his targets. With the ability to stop the run look for Brady and the Patriots to abuse the Jets weak 28th ranked passing defense.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atalanta Falcons
QB - Carson Palmer
Elite Options - Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson
Value Option -  J.J. Nelson

Next up, you guessed it, Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals. Before you go and call me crazy because I chose Palmer over Ryan and the Falcons, hear me out. First of all, Julio has one of the toughest matchups on the entire slate against Patrick Peterson. I realize Julio torched Peterson two years ago but Peterson is one of the best man to man corners in the league and I see him taking it personal to shut down or at least limit Julio this week.

So that leads me to the Cardinals. They have struggled this season ranking 26th in DVOA ranking but have the 11th best average yards per game(261) through the air. They should be able to build on those numbers this week as the Falcons weakness has been on the back end as they rank 26th in Defense vs. the Pass. Carson Palmer has been nowhere near as reliable as he was last season but on a positive note he is going to be low owned and comes with a value price tag on both sites. He is projected for 40+ pass attempts this week which makes total sense as he has exceeded 45 in three of his last four starts. Also after only throwing for 300+ yards once in the Cardinals first five games, he has now done it three times in the last four weeks. All signs are pointing up for the former #1 pick way back in 2003. The way things have been going for the Cardinals there is really only two main options this week. David Johnson is the key to the entire offense as he is one of the best running backs in the league. He is third in rushing behind Zeke and DeMarco Murray and second in total yardage as he leads all running backs with 510 yards receiving and trails just Le'Veon Bell in average targets per game(7.3). No matter the game flow DJ is going to be heavily involved. The other main target for the Cards is the ageless Larry Fitzgerald. He is averaging 10.7 targets per week and has not received less than seven in any week this season. If you are looking to go off the board and roster a home run play take a look at J.J. Nelson who has received 11 targets over the last two weeks despite not doing anything with them. He has shown multi touchdown upside and really only needs one big play to hit to crush his value.

 

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
QB - Aaron Rodgers
Elite Option - Jordy Nelson
Value Option - Davante Adams

We are going to jump ahead to the Monday night game for the next stack as the Aaron Rodgers train rolls into town. Since back to back losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants in weeks five and six Aaron Rodgers has been on fire. Over the last five weeks he is averaging 318 yards passing and three touchdowns. He has seen a price drop this week due to the tough matchup as the Packers travel to Philadelphia to face the 1st overall ranked Defense vs. the Pass when looking at the Player Lab tool. They have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for 300 yards in a game and have only allowed two QB's(Eli & Stafford) to throw three touchdowns or more. So what's different this week with Rodgers? Let's start with a lack of a run game with Eddie lacy out for the season which has forced Rodgers to to attempts 38+ passes in seven straight games. For fantasy purposes you have to love the volume even in a tough matchup.  The elite option to pair with Rodgers is always going to be Jordy Nelson who leads the team with 96 targets(9.6 average), 53 receptions, 663 yards and nine touchdowns. Despite only catching three of his five targets last week he did score a touchdown, his fourth straight game reaching the endzone. If you are looking to grab some value in your stack don't be afraid to throw Davante Adams in your lineup. He has seen the second most targets(80) in the offense and looks to have the best matchup of the Packers receivers as he will go up against Nolan Carroll, the Eagles weakest cornerback according to Pro Football Focus.

 

 

 

 

Oakland Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers
QB - Derek Carr
Elite Options - Amari Cooper
Value Option - Michael Crabtree(If he gets in practice this week)

While I like the potential of fantasy production from both sides of this matchup I lean the Raiders for tournaments for a few reasons. First of all, Cam is a much better option for cash games as he adds the ability to run which takes away from the overall value of a stack. Cam also hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns since back in Week 6 against the Saints. Looking at the Player Lab tool we also see the Raiders lean much more on passing for their overall scoring than the Panthers.

Derek Carr has been inconsistent lately but comes with huge upside throwing for three or more touchdowns four times in 2016 and has even fit in a 500+ passing yard game in Week 8 against the Bucs. The Panthers secondary has struggled this season after the departure of Josh Norman and rank 19th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab tool. At this point of the week it looks like Amari Cooper will be the most targeted option in the offense as Michael Crabtree was once again limited in Thursday's practice with an ankle injury. Cooper is averaging 9.3 targets per week and has been a bit touchdown unlucky this season with just three, two of which have come in the past three weeks.

 

 

 

 

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