Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/25/16

Everyone recovered from Thanksgiving? Fully digested? Still a little hungover? It's all good. After a day off from the Association, we are back with a full slate of NBA. Every team is in action tonight and it makes for a true TGIF as we roll through this holiday weekend.

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $11800 DK - $12000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 65.1 DK - 72.06
Man, if gets hard writing the same thing about a guy seemingly day in/ day out (feels like baseball season or something) but Russ has us in that place. He's averaging just absurd per game numbers right now that have him on some pretty historic pacing. The 31.8/10.5/9.6 averages have him at triple-double rates (if you round up the boards) and make him a difficult fade each night. Tonight he gets Denver in the high altitude and as of this writing there wasn't any line on the game. He's still the cash game play in our system (edging out Harden for the same price) and Denver's been below average guarding point guards this season.

Rajon Rondo FD - $5700 DK - $6300
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.96 DK - 36.29
He's rounding his fantasy game into form as he gets more comfortable in the Bulls' offense. He's starting to put together those high floor lines wherein he does a little bit of everything on the floor to fill the stat box. Since returning from injury, he's averaging a 9/10/9 line over the last three with the rebounds really jumping to the foreground. Rondo, grabbing weak side rebounds and hitting corner threes is what is going to boost his nightly value. His prices are still low enough to consider and this matchup doesn't project as the Bulls outright dominating the Sixers (-7 favorites). He's a better deal on FD than DK but in consideration on both.

Eric Bledsoe FD - $7600 DK - $7000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 41.65 DK - 44.45
TJ Warren is still out for the Suns and his absence has meant big things for Bledsoe in this offense. He's averaging more than 21 shots per game over his last three, getting to the line more and has seen a moderate usage bump in the short term. He's averaging an 18/8/6 in that time frame while running the offense. Minny is a slower team with about a league average defensive efficiency, so the matchup isn't ideal. But you aren't paying a premium on Bledsoe either. His prices haven't ticked up to reflect this new shooting opportunity.

Consider John Wall on DraftKings.

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Shooting Guards

Victor Oladipo FD - $5900 DK - $6600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 32.63 DK - 34.94
He were just waiting/ hoping for things to click with Oladipo in OKC. And if the short term results are to be believed, he's getting comfortable in this new offense. After struggling a ton from the field to start the season, Dipo's now getting his looks and capitalizing. Over his last five games he's seeing more than 15 field goal attempts per, knocking down close to 50% of his threes and putting up a 20/6/4 line that's paying these prices nightly. His salaries are still trending a little on the low end because of the early season struggles, but he has a high floor considering the way the Thunder use him to manage scoring on the second unit when Russ sits.

Nicolas Batum FD - $6200 DK - $6600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.26 DK - 36.68
The Knickshave been just blitzed by opposing shooting guards this season, allowing roughly 10% more scoring than league average, with opponents rebounding and assisting more as well. It's been bad for New York who own a bottom five defensive efficiency across the board. Batum's shooting and opportunity can be a bit hit or miss from night to night. He makes some of it up with the rebounding and assists, but to really hit value or above on this prices he needs the three dropping. He should have a chance at that tonight against New York. He'll present some matchup issues for his old teammate Courtney Lee and I expect the looks to be there.

Evan Fournier FD - $5300 DK - $5500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.92 DK - 30.17
Zach LaVine FD - $5700 DK - $5900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.98 DK - 32.22
I'm putting these guys together because most of the considerations are the same. They are priced right together, have high minutes' floors, can shoot threes and have good matchups tonight. Neither is the first or second choice for their teams on offense, and both need to score to hit value. Off shooting nights can submarine them on their salaries, but again they often play enough minutes to make it safe.

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler FD - $8800 DK - $9300
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.87 DK - 50
Jimmy Buckets is doing just that and he's of course the focal point of the Bulls' offense. Over the last three games he's even getting to the line a ton as well. Butler can do just about everything on the court and has even made a point to take more threes this season. It's all coming together for him and he's put up 55 and 58 points in the last two games. Those are a bit of outliers of course, but he's still a mid 40's fantasy point guy as a floor and tonight's matchup against the doesn't provide much in the way of resistance.

Andrew Wiggins FD - $6500 DK - $7100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.52 DK - 38.57
Let's hope our opponents take a look at the last three games and want to just ignore Wiggins tonight. That would be a mistake. Those games are a lesson in the risk associated with Wiggins but aren't going to be his new normal. The risk of course is that when his shot isn't falling, he falls off the fantasy map because that's his primary way of accruing fantasy production. Over his last three he's an abysmal 9-49 from the field. But tonight he gets a defensively deficient Suns squad who play the second fastest pace in the league with a below average defensive efficiency. This is a great time to buy on Wiggins whos price is kept in check by the poor shooting.

DeMarre Carroll FD - $3800 DK - $3600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.06 DK - 25.54
He's basically a punt play at this point and needs to be viewed as such. The days of Carroll as a mid 5K (or higher) player might be over in this offense. The Raptors rely so much on Derozan and Lowry that the rest of the time become bit players on both offense and in the fantasy scheme. Carroll isn't a high minutes guy because of the injuries, but he can see open shots (especially corner threes) if Lowry and/ or Derozan gets the drive and kick game going. He went nuts last game, scoring twenty and adding every other part of the stat line as well. I suspect, on the back of that performance and the prospect of minutes in the high 20's, you see Carroll as a popular cheap play tonight.

Strongly consider Wilson Chandler if Gallo sits again tonight.

Power Forwards

Taj Gibson FD - $5300 DK - $5800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.52 DK - 31.73
Another night of NBA, another night of hating the power forward position (especially on FanDuel). When that's the case we often have to default to cheaper options because you just aren't getting the pts/$ value we see at other positions. That's because so many power forwards just play limited minutes in this new NBA. And that was the concern with Taj early in the season, but of late they've bumped up that run into the low 30s per game. That's really all he needed and the price hasn't come up enough yet. He's a double-double threat every game and should be in line for something along those lines tonight against the Sixers.

Gorgui Dieng FD - $5900 DK - $6200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.89 DK - 36.92
Speaking of minutes out of the power forward position, Dieng is another guy we can pencil in for his run because of the way Thibs just has his rotations absolutely set in stone. He's the fourth offensive option in Minnesota, but that's fine as long as he's going to stay on the court for long stretches. Dieng's averaging a 10/9 this season on a little more than 30 minutes per game and has an excellent matchup against the Suns tonight. They don't have the interior presence who can sometimes lead Dieng into foul trouble and this represents a big pace bump for the T-Wolves.

The "Also Considers" tonight are all about who's injured. If Cody Zeller sits again, we've see Frank Kaminsky get a minutes bump off the bench. If Julius Randle were to sit I think we can still consider Larry Nance Jr even though he was a bit underwhelming last time against the Warriors. With Joel Embiid out, Ersan Ilyasova may see minutes in the mid 30s as the Sixers mix around their big men rotations. This is all to say, I'm not sure paying up at the position is the right way to go tonight.

Centers

Robin Lopez FD - $4900 DK - $5700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.85 DK - 34.3
Have you noticed a Bulls' theme in these picks? You have? Good. It's because the Suns are a bottom third team on D with a lightening fast pace. With Tyson Chandler back tonight, the Bulls will need some more big man minutes and they've been comfortable keeping Ro-Lo on the court for long stretches this season. If he sees the run (and avoids the blowout tonight) then dude is basically a 10/10 guy on lock with a plus matchup. He's coming very cheap on FanDuel at a tougher position and his salary helps give you wiggle room elsewhere.

Nikola Vucevic FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.59 DK - 36.39
He isn't a big minutes guy anymore in the Frank Vogel-led Magic, but at these prices he really doesn't need to be. He's an exceptional value on DraftKings and sees plenty of shots with his court time. Over his last five games, with only 27 minutes per game, he's putting up a 10/12 line that includes him running a little bad shooting from the field. Washington's about league average against centers over the last couple of seasons so the matchup is fine. Vuce's true upside would be just seeing the court for more than 30 minutes in one of these contests.

Strongly consider paying up for Karl Anthony-Towns or going a little cheaper with Mason Plumlee.

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