Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 12 Main Slate

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QUARTERBACKS

Carson Palmer FD 7100 DK 5300
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 21.76 DK - 22.69
The price on DraftKings is just way too low considering his weapons and the opponent. Palmer’s completion percentage is down a bit this season and we aren’t seeing the crazy touchdown passes from last season (which were an outlier) but he’s now fallen into the bottom of the middle tier in pricing on DK and is a deal on FanDuel as well. He’s still averaging around 40 pass attempts per game and is facing a bottom third team defense in the Atlanta Falcons. Vegas doesn’t expect the Cardinals to put up a ton of points here (the total seems low to me frankly) but the potential passing volume for Palmer and the price make him a top play in our system. It sees this as a buy low opportunity after some down weeks since returning from injury. It doesn’t often feel good buying low (after all there’s usually a reason the price is low) but this is a case where I suspect it’s been overcorrected.

Eli Manning FD 7800 DK 6500
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 23.79 DK - 24.8
Man the Browns are just brutal. They are almost historically bad with no real end in sight. Targeting plays against them has been EV+ all season long and that should be the case again this week. Eli, like Palmer above, feels a little odd for cash games considering the inconsistency. But again, we are in the price territory where his salary and opponent almost necessitate a buy. His completion percentage is actually at a career high this season, but on the flip side he’s throwing a ton of interceptions. A quarterback can run bad in the latter category though Manning’s often been predisposed to the INT. But again, this is the Browns who rank near the bottom of the barrel in DVOA against, well, everything. They stink and are the reason we see the Giants at one of their highest implied totals of the season this week.

Strongly consider Cam Newton against the Raiders. He’s struggling right now but this could also represent a relative buy low scenario

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson FD 9500 DK 8900
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 23.09 DK - 25.55
Considering the way the Cardinals use him, it’s very difficult fading Johnson from week to week. He’s nearly (not totally) matchup proof in that he works as a three down back/ pass catcher when playing catch up and the ground and pound guy when the Cardinals are winning. He see elite levels of touches with an average of 26 per game. Even with the Cardinals coming in as underdogs to the Falcons, I’m not concerned with buying on DJ here considering the Falcons rank 26th in DVOA against the rush. He’s about as expensive as you’ll see a running back, but it’s warranted in this case.

Jay Ajayi FD 8400 DK 7600
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 20.23 DK - 20.63
We generally look for a few major things when deciding on a cash game running back. Those pieces are volume of touches, bad opposing defense and implied favorite on the game. For Ajayi that’s check, check and check. He’s become the clear lead back in Miami after they committee-d themselves to death early in the season. But since taking over as “the guy” he’s averaging a 22/137 in the last five weeks. Sure, some of that is on the back of back-to-back 200+ yard rushing performances to start. He’ll have a chance at heavy usage again here with the Dolphins coming in as significant favorites (-7.5) and facing one of the worst rush defenses in football. That checks all of the boxes.

Rashad Jennings FD 6600 DK 5600
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 15.97 DK - 17.55
The downside is he doesn’t seem particularly good. The upside is he’s cheap. Here’s to hoping the latter offsets the former. He appears to be the lead back in New York though I suppose there could be a timetable on that if he continues to struggle on the yards per carry basis. We bought low on Jennings last week on the idea he would dominant the Giants' carries and he did. He'll get another chance this week against the worst run defense in football, Cleveland. They are getting gashed on the ground, allowing 143 yards per game on the ground. The only team worse is the 49ers at a whopping 179 yards per game (see Ajayi, Jay above). Vegas has the Giants winning handily and that could mean more of the same for the Browns where running backs run out the game on them. Not quite the deal he was last week, but still a value considering the matchup.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Julian Edelman FD 6400 DK 6800
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 16.88 DK - 21.11
With Gronk out this week Edelman again becomes the top target guy in New England and makes for an exceptional cash game play. Last week he went 8/77/1 on an absurd 17 targets and one has to think that poor conversion rate is more an outlier than the actual reality. Edelman will likely be a chalk play at these prices and the Pats' willingness to use him in the possession game. No real reason to fade especially on DK with the full point PPR.

Jarvis Landry FD 7000 DK 5900
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 15.06 DK - 18.58
Landry’s seen a marked decrease in targets over the last three weeks but that’s coincided with him facing three teams (Chargers, Jets, and Rams) who actually rank in the top third of the league in DVOA against WR1s. Two of those teams also allow less than average opponent plays simply because of their slow pace. Those factors likely contributed to Landry’s decreased performances from Landry who the Dolphins still see as their number one option. Look for a bounce back week against the 49ers who are just about complete opposites. They allow the most opponent plays and suck on defense. I love Landry this week, especially if others are turned off by the recent performance. He was a guy who saw double digit targets per game on lock to start the season. Look for that to return this week.

Larry Fitzgerald FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 17.04 DK - 20.88
If you can't tell, our system really likes it some Cardinals this week. After a tough matchup last week against a top-rated Minny D (4th in DVOA against the pass) they face the Falcons (22nd). Fitzgerald was held mostly in chech with 7 targets though he finished with a respectable 6/63 line. On the season though he's averaging more than 10.5 looks per game and more in plus matchups. This is a plus matchup. Because he's a possession receiver, Fitz works in all kinds of game scripts. Vegas sees the Cardinals playing from behind, which is fine. Atlanta is a bottom third team in DVOA against WR1 though Fitz doesn't fit that traditional mold. He lines up about 60% of the time in the slot where Atlanta is actually a bit better than league average at covering. I see him as a solid cash game play because of the targets and conversion rate.

Tyler Boyd FD 5600 DK 4000
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 12.79 DK - 15.56
Brandon LaFell FD 5100 DK 4600
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 12.73 DK - 15.37
With AJ Green pulling a hammy last week there’s a lot of targets to go around for the Bengals now. Granted neither of these guys appear completely safe WR options going into this week, but both saw major target increases last week against the Bills. LaFell saw 9 targets and Boyd 8. The latter turned in the better game with a 6/54/1 line. They are both coming cheap for sure so I think taking a shot here on the new opportunity is worth it, but the matchup is a bit scary. The Ravens are a really good defense (2nd in DVOA) and Vegas doesn’t love the Bengals’ chances at points (18 implied). If they’re playing from behind there’s an increased chance at looks here though I don’t imagine either guy having a total blow away performance.

A long note on Odell Beckham. He is awesome and the Browns stink. So he's got that going for him. On the downside, he's the most expensive receiver and the Browns, for all of their defensive inefficiencies don't allow a ton of passing yards per game. It isn't because they are good on that side of the ball, but rather because other teams stomp them early and then just run the ball. That's the risk with Beckham here. If the Giants score early and get up that could be the end of the passing game. We have him as the highest raw point WR on the week, but are a bit concerned with the blowout.

TIGHT ENDS

Warning: Tight End is a tricky position in the best of weeks. This main slate is particularly brutal.

Travis Kelce FD 6300 DK 4000
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 11.42 DK - 14.14
With Maclin off the field over the last two games he's averaged 7.5 targets and last game put up an excellent 7/108 line. It's tough trusting any tight end really and I don't often like venturing even into the upper middle tier because of the volatility around the position. It also doesn't help that this is a tougher matchup against the Broncos. But the Chiefs project to play from behind and Kelce does figure into their passing sets in catchup situations. Again, I'm not over the moon about any of these plays but his projected target share is about as good as anyone in the tight end main slate player pool.

Lance Kendricks FD 4800 DK 3000
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 10.26 DK - 12.89
See what I mean about tight end? The Rams finally put in Jared Goff last week and he was meh for his first time out. That's fine, he's a rookie and likely an improvement on Keenum who was downright bad. Goff did target Kendricks 8 times for an underwhelming 4/38 line. Outside of a Week 10 trainwreck that saw him put up a 1/0 line on two targets (yes I rostered him that week) he's been consistent enough in target share for his price point. The latter piece is the key in that he's cheap. I suspect that's the direction we want to go at tight end this week because it all seems so speculative.

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

New York Giants vs. CLE
It's easy to pick on the Browns. After all, they blow. They've been sacked the most times in the NFL this season at 38 and have thrown the third most interceptions. The Giants are -6.5 favorites with Cleveland at only 19 implied points. The Giants are actually a top 10 team in DVOA this season, ranking 8th against the pass and 10th against the run. I suspect they are a popular play though take note the sites have adjusted their price up because of the matchup.

Tennessee Titans vs. CHI
The Titans, on the other hand, are coming a bit cheaper. They aren't as solid defensive unit as the Giants but have a great matchup this week. The Bears are starting Matt Barkley which should open the door to a lot of mistakes. It's hard to imagine he's worse than Cutler, but there's definitely a chance. Vegas has Chicago putting up only 19.25 points and man that seems high. Chicago is on their third string QB, has no Alshon Jeffrey, a WR core of Eddie Royal and Cameron Meredith. After Jordan Howard, there doesn't seem much to go on here.

Football, baby!

Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.

You can grab a go test it out yourself.