Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/22/16

What better way to spend the Wednesday night before Thanksgiving than knee deep in NBA DFS? Maybe you're at the bar watching the games meeting up with old friends. Maybe it's just the start of a little four day vacation. Or maybe you're looking for some sweet relief from the family onslaught you're about to endure over the next 24-36 hours. Whatever the reason, he's your outlet. A full Wednesday in the NBA coming at you.

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $11600 DK - $12300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 54.05 DK - 59.07
It's the second night of a back-to-back which I suppose is the only thing you are concerned about with Russ. I mean what I said last night holds true again for tonight:

Russ. Even at these exorbitant prices he’s actually still one of the top points/$ plays at point guard. That, my friends, is no easy feat. But this is Russ we’re talking about. He’s averaging a triple-double on the season (if we round up on the rebounds by .3) and chucks in the highest usage in the league at 40%.

The Kings aren't quite the matchup the Lakers were last night, as Sacramento's really slowed down their pace this season. But they are still garbage on D and Russ is such a tough fade on big slates where cheap value tends to crop up here and there.

Eric Bledsoe FD - $7500 DK - $7000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 36.8 DK - 40.43
No TJ Warren and a small ball starting lineup has meant Eric Bledso shouldering more of the offensive load in Phoenix. It looks like Warren will sit this one out as well and Bledsoe should be in line for another high volume shooting night. He's taken 24 and 25 shots respectively in the last two games for an average 28/7/6 line. Pretty damn great and there's clear signs his usage rate spikes with the current Phoenix rotations. A lot of it has come because of Brandon Knight no longer factoring much on these new sets. Of course if Warren came back tonight we'd have to bump Bledsoe back down some, but with the early start I suspect we have the info ahead of time.

Elfrid Payton FD - $5700 DK - $5900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.93 DK - 31.28
If you think he's back in Coach Vogel's good graces with the minutes then this is about as good a DFS matchup as you can want from a point guard. But one can see why the minutes might not be totally secure. He's shooting poorly from the field (< 20% from three) and the assists per minute are down as well off his career numbers. Some of that could be getting used to new personnel or it could be the system. Or it could just be bad luck. I'm hoping it's a mix of the three and the Magic start figuring things out sooner than later. This is the matchup to start. Phoenix pushes the pace and everyone on Orlando should see a bump in per minute expectations on their lines. Payton isn't expensive and last game he saw 35 minutes. Here's to hoping that stays consistent.

If Paul George is out again then Jeff Teague is a fantastic play. Also consider Kyrie Irving. 

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Shooting Guards

Klay Thompson FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.26 DK - 34.35
We can safely say that all the early season ledge-jumping we saw off Thompson's shooting is a thing of the past. He's back to his old sharp-shooter self. The last five games he's more than 44% from three and averaging 25 points per. So I think that starts putting the "Klay's broken" ridiculous dialogue to bed. Now that being said, for Klay to hit value (especially after the price increase) he needs to score. In this version of the Warriors he isn't called on to do more than shoot spot up threes and occasionally drive. Rebounds and assists aren't a big part of what he brings to the fantasy table. But this matchu still has him as a value play though you'll need to fade the blowout.

Victor Oladipo FD - $5900 DK - $6600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.42 DK - 33.26
Not to get all "copy/paste-y" in this write up but, much like Russ, what I said about Oladipo yesterday holds firm in this one as well. Here's what I wrote in all its splendor:
But in the last four games he’s been a serious high volume shooter, averaging 17 looks per along with 6.5 attempts/ game from beyond the arc. He’s running a little hot on the latter, but that’s fine as it’s still built in to his price. I suspect you see Westbrook and Oladip as the chalk on both sites considering how much of the OKC shooting volume they’ve accounted for in the near term. The other plus for Oladipo of late is how he’s beginning to rebound and assist more than in the early season as he, presumably, gets more comfortable in the offense.
Man that was good stuff, huh? He's in another plus matchup against the Kings and I'm not worried about back-to-backs with young legs. OKC is going to need all the wins they can get this season so don't look for too much in the managing minutes department.

Dion Waiters FD - $5200 DK - $5300
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 25.25 DK - 27.3
Josh Richardson FD - $4300 DK - $4900
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.18 DK - 24.78
These guys are on here assuming Justise Winslow is out again. Both see usage bumps with Winslow out of the lineup and the Heat running small sets with Waiters at the three. Dion's the safer of the two as he contributes both rebounding and assists more consistently. J-Rich I like buying on the cheap especially after his atrocious last game. He shot 1-11 from the field on a night against Philly that saw him as a heavy start on FanDuel. It's hard for folks to erase that kind of thing from their mind quickly. Don't be that guy/girl. It's an outlier performance and we are buying him super cheap if he's looking at minutes in the low 30's.

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant FD - $9900 DK - $9700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.93 DK - 54.28
Such a tough spot to fade the Warriors here even with the possibility of a blowout. They crushed the Lakers in their first matchup in LA. Tonight it's in Oracle and while at the time of this writing there was no live line, I expect it's easily in the double digits. The Warriors are rolling right now, putting up monster totals on a nightly basis. Much of that is thanks to Durant who's seeing his looks nightly while also getting a bit more consistent on the glass. If he's putting those two elements of his game together in this offense then he can pay these prices even in a blowout. The prices aren't out of bounds to the point where you are even completely terrified of seeing the minutes buzzed. The Lakers are a fast-paced team with one of the worst defensive efficiencies in the league. Outside of Russ, Durant may be the safest cash game play tonight.

Harrison Barnes FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.76 DK - 32.54
The Clippers are kind of a disaster matchup for anyone in DFS but Barnes still creeps toward the top of the pts/$ list simply because the Mavs run him out there for about the most minutes in the league. He's playing upwards (or over) 40 a night which is nearly unheard of in the NBA. But with so many of their normal starters and minutes guys out they just need him. It helps that he's versatile and can shift between the three and four so keeping him on the court isn't a defensive liability. Plus that court time is leading to crazy high shooting volume. Over his last five games he's averaging 18 shots per and a 19/6 line. Like I said, the Clips are a very good defensive team so this one isn't a lock, but his price hasn't totally met the opportunity either.

Matt Barnes FD - $4000 DK - $4000
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 21.97 DK - 24.23
DeMarre Carroll FD - $3800 DK - $3500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 23.4 DK - 25.19
These two guys fall into the same category as cheap/ minutes/ underwhelming/ upside. It's a smaller venn diagram but it has its overlaps for sure. Both guys are starting and playing minutes in the mid/low thirties. They are far down the opportunity chains in the offenses but again, in NBA DFS minutes matter so much. Their respective floors are low, but that's built into the prices now as both comes near punt prices. Both of their matchups are pace upticks and the games project to be high scoring. I wouldn't call either safe, but both could provide salary relief if you can stomach it.

Glenn Robinson is still a fantastic punt play if Paul George remains out

Power Forwards

Kevin Love FD - $7800 DK - $7700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 43.34 DK - 46.35
Feels like forever since I've thought about the Cavs, but I guess that's what happens when an NBA team goes five days without playing a game. They are back tonight against Portland and Love helps to fill in some mid-tier pricing at one of the worst positions in NBA DFS. Love though is a true power forward who not only stretches the defense to hit threes but also gets on the glass as well. He's averaging a 20/11 on the season and faces a Blazer defense that's allowing league worst production to the opposing power forward position. Fours are crushing them.

Gorgui Dieng FD - $5700 DK - $6100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.88 DK - 31.74
If you are like me then you think you never roster Dieng on the right night. The reason you feel this way is because the guy puts in super variable performances and sometimes at times where it shouldn't be the case. But there's safety in the minutes Thibs has him running and a matchup against New Orleans is good news for starting bigs. If the Pels are without Davis tonight then even better. Gorgui's been putting up double digit rebounding numbers almost on lock and the Wolves do get him into enough pick and rolls that the points come in the right matchups. This game projects to stay close and Dieng doesn't break the bank on FanDuel. It's hard to find his minutes floor in the same price range which provides a lot of safety.

After these two guys it gets very speculative, especially on FanDuel without the multi-position eligibility. You can take a risk on some cheap upside plays like Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky but those guys really need to be knocking down threes. If we could trust Trey Lyles' minutes he'd definitely be in play as well. And if Paul George is out again then firing up Thad Young probably makes sense.

Centers

Marc Gasol FD - $6800 DK - $7000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 39.66
While sometimes tough to trust Gasol's run as Memphis will manage his minutes, I think tonight he should see a full dose. The Grizz aren't on a back-to-back and I suspect they want him out there to front Embiid as much as possible. Gasol is following the trend of the stretch five this season and is shooting about 3.5 three pointers per game. That's 35x more than the 0.1 attempts he averaged last year. So yeah, you can say there's been a shift in his game. But that's how the NBA goes these days. Teams need their big men to venture out beyond the arc in the high pick and roll. Gasol's been up to the task shooting over 40% from three. It's amazing really and I'm sure some teams (like the Grizz) ask themselves why in the hell they didn't try this before. He's a solid play against a weak Sixers team tonight for sure.

Hassan Whiteside FD - $9200 DK - $9000
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 49.91 DK - 52.15
Really the only thing you're worried about Whiteside on any given night is whether he gets his full run. He'll spend some time on the bench either because of foul trouble, poorer foul shooting in crunch time or just weird rotations. Otherwise, this guy's a tough fade. He puts up just monster lines. He's averaging a 19/16 line on the season with close to three blocks per game. And that's in only an average of 33 minutes per game. Detroit, for all the Andre Drummond they have, is poor at defending opposing centers. It may be tough fitting his salary considering some of the other top options but he's nearly a lock for a double/ double nightly as his absolute floor.

Consider Al Horford

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