Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) goes to the basket against Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015, in Washington. The Lakers won 108-104. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
A case of the Mondays, anyone? After an injury riddled NFL Sunday I'm back in the mood to focus on solely on hoops. Thankfully we have a monstrous Monday slate to pick over. What time is it? Game time, huh. Man, that sounds a lot less badass when I type it than when teams do it before games. Let's proceed and pretend like it never happened.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 44.96 DK - 49.08
Wall is back to his old ones since returning from injury, and he's put up 41 or more fantasy points in each of his last 3 starts. Two of those match-ups (NY and MIA) are bottom 10 match-ups, and even Philly isn't the pushover they once were. Phoenix, though? They're back to their old ones as well - allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season on the back of a a blistering, league fastest 104.8 PACE factor. With Wall unleashed for his normal run of minutes, I expect he'll be the highest owned top tier player on the night.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.1 DK - 36.53
The guy who will likely be covering him ain't so bad, either. Bledsoe's minutes have bounced around a bit (largely thanks to how bad the Suns are), but the signs are there that he's ready to break back into the offense in a big way. He hoisted 24 shots with TJ Warren out and Devin Booker banged up, and he's likely heading back into the same situation on Monday. If both Booker and Warren are active this pick loses some of its steam, but honestly not that much. Bledsoe has routinely supported mid-$7,000s prices in the past, and was pretty much doing fine until back to back hiccups against the Nuggets and Pacers. The Wizards have actually been pretty tough on opposing point guards this season, but this is more a price consideration than anything else. Not sure he's a slam dunk cash game play, but I love the upside here.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.58 DK - 34.79
Speaking of guys whose prices have room to grow, I'm pretty interested in a little Goran Dragic tonight. The 76ers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season thanks to the offense-first nature of Sergio Rodriguez and TJ McConnell, and Dragic has slid right back into his 35-36 minute rotation. His shots per minute are right on par with where they were pre-injury, and that means he'll basically be a good value in good match-ups. Welp, this is one of those good match-ups. I expect and up and down game where Dragic is able to do a lot in transition.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.2 DK - 42.49
Yes, it's the second half of a back to back, but the Pacers just don't have a lot of options right now, and Teague is on a tear right now. With Miles and George off the court Teague's usage rises from 25.4% to 31.5%, and his time of possession each game goes way up as well. Golden State has played exceptionally fast this year, and if this game stays close Teague could be in line for a monster. That's the fly in the ointment, of course - Golden State could run the banged up Pacers right out of the gym, limiting Teague (and everyone else's) minutes dramatically. For that reason this is mostly a big tournament play, but it's one I've got squarely in my crosshairs.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.61 DK - 33.04
Beal exploded back into his full allotment of minutes on Saturday, dropping 34/5/4 against the Heat in 40 minutes of action. The Wizards just can't help themselves, can they? Beal is always going to be a scoring dependent fantasy commodity, and while this might be on the high end of what you hope to pay for him on any given night, the match-up is simply too good to ignore here. The Suns have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and with Devin Booker hobbled, Beal might have the luxury of matching up against an out of position point guard like Brandon Knight or Leandro Barbosa. Seems like a fantastic play for any format.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.6 DK - 27.85
DFSR was basically the only outfit on Waiters on Saturday night, and he came through in a big way - going off for 16/4/8 on just 1.5% cash game ownership. That number will likely climb for Monday's tilt with the Sixers, but probably not by enough. Dragic's return hasn't slowed him down at all - he's averaged 20.5 shots per game over the course of his last 4 games, and for some reason his price hasn't risen really at all. Justise's Winslow's potential return could complicated things slightly, but since Waiters is actually a better offensive player, it shouldn't make too big a difference. The 76ers aren't as good a match-up for shooting guards as they are for point guards, but this is mostly a case of a guy being mispriced. Assuming we don't get any bad news on the groin injury, I'd be comfortable deploying Waiters everywhere.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 22.7 DK - 24.45
Curry was a chalk play on Saturday, and fought through a mostly silent first half to pay off a respectable 5.5x points per dollar in 35 minutes against the Magic. And that's really what's at play, here. With Barea and Williams out on Monday, it's highly likely he'll be a chalk option once again. So why doesn't he rank higher on this list? It's a pretty pukey match-up. It's not hard to imagine the Mavs getting utterly destroyed here, so the real question will be whether or not Curry's minutes are safe in a blowout. Given there relative lack of options it wouldn't surprise me, and he really doesn't have to do much to reach value on these prices.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 37.05 DK - 39.71
Wiggins had a disastrous performance against the Grizzlies, but that's been the case for a lot of wing players this season. The Celtics have been a totally different story. They've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and while Crowder's return should make a pretty big difference going forward, he seems to be limited in both minutes and effectiveness right now. The lesser Morris brother shot 10-16 in one of his best games of the season against the Celtics in Crowder's first game back. Our line-up optimizer is forecasting a big bounceback for Wiggins here, and fast nature of the match-up and the relative shallowness of the position should make him a popular start for cash games tonight.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.29 DK - 24.88
This is totally contingent upon Justise Winslow missing this game, but if he does miss it, Johnson is just the kind of punt you're looking for. He contributes in several different categories (giving him a high floor), and there's plenty of evidence that he can put up 7x points per dollar on these prices. Philly is a solid match-up for sure, but this is more a case of a price and opportunity mismatch. If he gets the start, I will be playing him everywhere.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 46.16 DK - 49.6
With all the value lying around we'll likely have to spend up somewhere, and Durant looks like a pretty sizable payoff from where I'm sitting. The Pacers aren't even playing a true small forward right now, and if Glenn Robinson III draws the Kevin Durant assignment on Monday, this could be a serious bloodbath. Yes, the blowout is absolutely a concern here - but Durant has been the guy who causes blowouts this season, not the guy who misses out because of them. Durant's usage is down slightly from his OKC heyday, but the higher shot quality thanks to Golden State's super-slick offense has more than made up the difference. Will he end the season shooting 57% from the field and 43% from three? I don't know, but it looks awfully easy for him right now. I'm going to be tempted to run him regardless of the blowout risk.
Keep an eye on the the small forward situations on the Suns and Pacers. We might get some solid punts there in PJ Tucker or Glenn Robinson III, but as of this writing neither of those situations has really worked itself out yet.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.35 DK - 31.07
Another play that's contingent upon news we don't have just yet, but it looks for now like Chandler will miss this game as well. Len's paid 5x points per dollar on each of his last two games, and it looks for all the world like the Suns plan to play him more minutes if they happen to play in a close game at some point. Len has slightly improved upon last season's per-minute totals in basically every category, and as a starter last season he was a slam dunk 30+ fantasy points per game guy. He'll likely draw Markieff Morris here, who is dealing with ankle issues, and should have a tough time competing on the defense end and on the glass. He's a great play at a bad position in any format.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 43.26 DK - 45.1
Another match-up that doesn't look particularly great when you first see it, but is a lot better than it looks. The Raptors have been a rotating door at power forward, and have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. And sadly for them, they haven't played a power forward of Blake's caliber yet. I've written many breathless, glowing reviews about Blake's improvements this season, but at the risk of embarrassing myself, here are a couple more. He's shooting less this season, but he's added both rebounds and defensive stats while also reaching a 4 year high in free throws per game as well. And the crazy thing about the free throws has really been his FT%. He's now up to 79%, and has made an absurd 25 out of his last 26. He's a great payoff option if you can save up elsewhere.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.12 DK - 36.05
Giannis' leap over the last two seasons has been well documented, but have you been following Jabari Parker's trajectory? He's added just 1 minute of playing time this season, but has added 5 shots per game while sacrificing very little in the way of efficiency. He's taken exactly 100 shots in his last 5 games, and topped 42 fantasy points in 3 of those. And he wasn't so great in the other 2. But still - that's transcendent production on less than $7,000 on FanDuel. While Ibaka looks like a tough match-up on paper, he's a much tougher help defender than he is an on-ball defender, and I suspect Parker will keep pushing his price upward with a solid performance here.
If Cody Zeller is out again Frank Kaminsky will be in line for big minutes once again.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 54.35 DK - 56.82
Get it while it lasts, folks, because it doesn't look like Whiteside is going to be priced this way for much longer. The Heat finally seem comfortable playing him mid-to-high 30s minutes per game, and he's topped 5x points per dollar on these high prices in each of his last 4 games. And the rebounding! What in God's name is going on here? How could any human being waltz into the NBA and be a sure thing for 17-20 rebounds a game? And it just looks so easy. I don't care if Embiid gets his 20 minutes or whatever - Whiteside looks like an excellent cash game option regardless.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 36.95 DK - 38.81
Horford returned from injury with a vengeance against the Pistons, putting up a phenomenal 18/11/5/3/2 line while making his presence felt in every phase of the game. There's no easing Horford back into things, and if that's the case, he's flatly worth 10-15% more than what you need to pay for him right now. While Towns is a promising defender going forward, it hasn't actually stopped opposing centers from getting theirs this season - the Wolves have given up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Horford's got through the moon upside on these prices and a very reasonable floor as well. I could see deploying him in any format.
Also considered: Karl Anthony Towns. He looked bad against Memphis, but again, everyone looks bad against Memphis recently. He'd been a lock for 40 fantasy points a game prior to that, and he should fall back into that shape here against a Celtics team that's been as bad against centers as Towns' Wolves.
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View Comments
Nice picks as usual. I played some ridiculous line ups and they worked, but not as I wanted. All the punts were a failure. Beal was great where I had him though.
Works wonders!????
Good picks. I played 4 lineups and won em all