In case you didn’t notice, we just released our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
In Week 11 we are going to concentrate closely on two specific filters on the Player Lab tool. They will be the "High Team Pass Yards %" and "High Team Passing Touchdowns %".
High Team Passing Yards % - The percentage of a team's total yardage that comes from passing.
High Team Passing Touchdowns % - The percentage of a team's total touchdowns coming from the pass.
These filters put the focus directly on teams who rely on the pass more than other teams. In Week 11 these filters narrowed the field down to seven quarterbacks. We will now go a few steps further with the Player Lab tool and identify four top stacking options to help you cash in tournaments. Let's take a look.
Green Bay Packers
QB - Aaron Rodgers
Elite Option - Jordy Nelson, Devante Adams
Value Option - Randall Cobb
I included a snap shot of the Packers top targeted wide receivers this season. Jordy Nelson peaked last week with 18 targets, catching 12 for 126 yards and a touchdown. This was against a Titans defense(we will pick on them soon once again) who ranks 24th in Defense vs. the Pass. The matchup is much harder for Nelson this week as he will most likely be facing elite corner Josh Norman. I say most likely as I though he would be shadowing Stefon Digs last week but this was not the case and Diggs blew up for 164 yards. It will be a scenario where I will want to build multiple Packers stacks and inter change the options. With the projected volume I will be trying to roster at least two of the WR in each lineup. The great thing about Jordy is his price that comes in under $8K on both sites. Like James mentioned on the DFSR Week 11 Value Plays Podcast he is more like a mid $8K player. Take advantage in a projected high scoring game.
If the Redskins do decide to shut down Jordy Nelson, we have Aaron Rodgers in the turn the entire target share over to his secondary options. Devante Adams has been excellent lately leading the team with 47 targets over the last four games with two 100 yard game and three touchdowns. He gets, by far, the best matchup of the three Packers wideouts as he should see Bashaud Breeland who occupies the right side of the defense over 70% of time. When looking at PFF's cornerback rankings, Breeland stands out in a good way for fantasy as he ranks 111th of 117 ranked corners. For value this week I think Cobb makes a great play with Adams or on his own. Since returning from injury he has seen his target share rise form two in his first game back to eight last game. If Jordy Nelson is shut down that total could hit double digits for the first time since Week 7 where he had 10+ for three straight weeks. The Packers are on a three game losing streak and will be going into Sunday Night Football extremely motivated as they sit just one game out of the division lead in the NFC North. This game could easily be the highest scoring game of the week. Lock and load!
Indianapolis Colts
QB - Andrew Luck
Elite Options - TY Hilton
Value Option - Donte Moncrief, Jack Doyle
Speaking of high totals we will settle in on the highest of the week(53) in the AFC South matchup between the Colts and the Titans. I am not sure I totally agree with the Vegas line giving the Colts three points at home and while this isn't a betting article game flow and game script is huge when predicting fantasy points. When I first look at this matchup I turn to DVOA ranks for both offense and defense and the Titans have the bigger edge in overall, rushing, and passing offense to opponent defense differential. The Titans have an elite running back in DeMarco Murray who has been taking some of the upside away from Mariota which is crazy to say because as Mariota has been amazing with multiple touchdown passes in six straight games. The point I am trying to make is that Frank Gore is not an elite running back anymore which is why we see the Colts rely much more on the pass. Looking at the Player Lab tool we quickly see the Colts are one of the seven teams that rely on 70%+ of the overall yards on passing but the big standout is that they get 88% of their touchdowns via the pass. I would say Andrew Luck is in for big game and is projected for 39 passing attempts and has two very viable options to target. TY Hilton has been the clear #1 for Luck this season as he has been the healthiest and most productive. He is averaging 10.1 targets per game and torched the Titans back in Week 7 catching seven of 12 for 133 yards and a touchdown. If you are looking for value and lower ownership pair Luck with Donte Moncrief who comes at a low end $6K price on both sites. He has received 15 targets over the last two weeks and while he has only caught seven of them he has touchdowns in both games. Looking at the Player Lab once again we see the Titans ranking 24th in Defense vs. the Pass. Expect to see a lot of Colts lineups at the top of tournaments on Sunday.
New York Giants
QB - Eli Manning
Elite Option - Odell Beckham Jr.
Value Option - Sterling Shepard
For the next stack I went back to the original two filters we discussed in the opening and tweaked them even higher. This gives us just two teams that rely on over 75% of their overall yards and touchdowns coming through the air. The Steelers were a surprise at first as they have an elite running back in Le'Veon Bell. The thing is that he is also an elite pass catcher getting close to WR1 targets on top of the rushes. Enough about the Steelers. I lean the Giants this week for a few reasons. Potential high winds in Cleveland for Big Ben and the passing game and the fact the Giants have a shaky, at best, running back committee in Rashad Jennings and rookie Paul Perkins. The rely on passing for 79% of their total yards and 78% of their total touchdowns and Eli Manning is averaging 39 attempts and 276 yards passing a game. He has one of the games elite WR in Odell Beckham Jr. will be shadowed by Tracy Porter this week if he is back in the lineup. He is still listed as Questionable on the Bears injury report so stay tuned for the latest news. Either way he will be facing an electric player in OBJ who has really come on lately for fantasy owners with six touchdowns in his last five games. With the projected volume in this game you can count on Sterling Shepard. While he hasn't recorded a 100 yard game since Week 2, he has scored a touchdown in back to back games. His best value is on DraftKings where he comes in under $5K.
Tampa Bay Bucanneers
QB - Jameis Winston
Elite Options - Mike Evans
Value Option - Cameron Brate
If you look just at the matchup from a numbers perspective you see the Chiefs are ranked 8th in Defense vs. the Pass and have one of the best corners in the league in Marcus Peters. The Vegas total(45) is also one of the lower ones of the week as well which might take some eyes away from this stack. Not mine. I feel the sharps will be on this like chalk on a blackboard for a few reasons. First of all, the Bucs fit into the original model I built on the Player Lab with High Team Passing Yards & TD % being the focus. They actually rely on a very high 80% of their touchdowns via the pass. Winston and Evans are another reason to love this stack. Winston is averaging 37.7 pass attempts per game and while the yardage hasn't been there lately he has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games. Then there is Evans who controls more of his teams market share of targets than any other player in the league. Before last week's dud, which is hopefully in a lot of people's minds still, he had seven straight games with double digit targets and sits fifth in the league with 811 yards. Best of all for fantasy he leads the league with eight touchdowns. The best part about the matchup this week is that Marcus Peters plays exclusively on one side of the field so look for the Bucs to move Evans away from him all day long.
Honorable Mentions: Jacksonville Jaguars(Contrarian), Pittsburgh Steelers
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View Comments
I'm kind of stunned how many people have the Colts stack...If Tennessee has their way, they'll shorten the game. Would Luck throwing for 450 stun me? No. I just can't believe it's the most popular stack or at least it seems.