Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 100 - 11/19/16

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Two cards in one day! Saturday is going to be awesome. This week’s article will focus on the second event of the day, which takes place in Brazil. The first card comes from Belfast and I won’t totally abandon you, read on for some really quick picks for Fight Night 99 if you’ll be playing the 12:00 pm EST contests. Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 2 is the main event in Brazil and the whole world will rightfully be on Bader, including myself. But where else can you look for that DFS goodness? Let’s get to the picks.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

OK as promised, before digging into Fight Night 100 here are a few quick picks for Belfast. Full disclosure, I’ve done much less research on this card because of time constraints, but these are my initial thoughts:

Favorite – Teruto Ishihara ($8,900) / Gegard Mousasi ($9,600)

Mid-Range – Kyoji Horiguchi ($8,400) / Mark Godbeer ($8,000)

Value – Alexander Yakovlev ($7,200)

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Jack Hermansson ($8,900)

Vegas Line: -230
Finish Prop: -133
Career Record: 14-2
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  5.87
Finishes: 8 KO / 4 Sub / 5 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Scott Askham

I could take the easy way out here and pick Thomas Almeida in this price tier and while I’ll have heavy exposure to him as well, I wanted to go a different route than the chalk play. I present to you, Jack Hermansson. Hermansson had a strong showing in his UFC debut against Scott Askham, landing an impressive 5.87 significant strikes per minute. He takes on Cezar Ferreira as a -230 favorite and is -133 to finish inside the distance. Ferreira has won two straight but has also been knocked out in the first round FOUR times in his 15 fight career. I think Hermansson has the power to end the fight and even without a finish, should stay active enough to meet value and score a healthy amount of points in a decision victory. Because of the $800 discount from Almeida, either Hermansson or Almeida will be in just about every one of my lineups.

Prediction: Hermansson – 1^st Round TKO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

Francimar Barroso ($8,000)

Vegas Line: -155
Finish Prop: +166
Career Record: 18-5
UFC Record: 3-2
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  2.82
Finishes: 8 KO / 6 Sub / 11 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 3 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: L, 2^nd Round Sub (Rear Naked Choke) – Nikita Krylov

Well…here’s a sentence I never thought I would say, “Francimar Barroso represents the best DraftKings odds value on this card.” Wow, I feel dirty now. But it’s true, he is -155 to win the fight, +166 to get a stoppage, and will cost you below the midpoint in salary with an $8,000 price tag. Barroso has been up and down in his UFC career and while he doesn’t have a finish since joining the promotion, he did show plenty of stopping potential on the regional scene. Usually, I would quickly dismiss that but it’s more relevant in his matchup with UFC newcomer Darren Stewart. Stewart is unbeaten in his time on the European regional scene but traveling to Brazil for your UFC debut to fight a Brazilian coming off of a loss. Sheesh. It honestly scares me how much Barroso I have in my lineups because of his inconsistency but if you are ever going to load up on him, the time is now.

Prediction: Barroso – 3^rd Round TKO

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & UNDER)

Zak Ottow ($7,500)

Vegas Line: +150
Finish Prop: +333
Career Record: 14-3
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.33
Finishes: 2 KO / 10 Sub / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:  1 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Split Decision – Joshua Burkman

Watch your neck in this one. Zak Ottow is a submission guy with a great squeeze and a variety of chokes leading to 10 career submission wins. He’s another fighter on a long win streak who got his hand raised in his UFC debut last time out. Oh, but wait, his opponent Sergio Moraes is also a submission specialist with seven submission wins in 10 pro victories. This one is going to be fun if you like grappling and BJJ – which I do. From a DFS perspective, it’s a high risk/reward fight with both guys having a low floor and high ceiling with the early submission in play. But because Ottow comes in at $7,500, he’s one of my favorite GPP plays of the week. Nothing in this fight would really surprise me so Ottow is a pure value tournament play that I wouldn’t touch in cash games.

Prediction: Ottow – 1^st Round Submission (Arm Triangle Choke…why not?)