Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Nov. 10, 2016, in Denver. The Warriors won 125-101. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
We are back with another Friday in the NBA and with it comes a bunch of quality DFS matchups. Westbrook is back to continue his quest toward a full season double-double and we likely have a big time scoring game with Golden State and Boston. Also be sure to follow injury news throughout the day as guys like Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard could miss more time.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 56.77 DK - 61.69
Russ is awesome and the Nets are trash. Anything else you need here? On bigger slates you can sometimes make cases for fading Westbrook, but I don't think this is going to be one of them. He leads the league in usage, is second in points per game, leads in free throw attempts and could make a push to average a triple-double on the season (if you round up he is right now). Even at these prices I think he's basically cash game chalk especially if we get a full slate's worth of cheap plays to fill in around the margins.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.98 DK - 30.55
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.38 DK - 44.15
If the Celtics have any hope of staying in this game then they are going to need a lot out of these two. The Warriors are giving up above average fantasy production to the opposing guard positions though it should be noted that some of those numbers do come in blowout type games. That being said, the Warriors' pace is so fast with the defense just a little suspect at times that opponents can do work. Thomas and Smart are different fantasy entities with Thomas relying a ton on the scoring, couple with assists while Smart can contribute in every meaningful way across the stat line. There is some risk that the Warriors blow the doors off here, but the Celtics do stand to but up points and the run and gun style coule benefit them if they knock down shots.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 34.72 DK - 38.05
He's on a team with a bunch of other usage which can make things tough from an upside perspective. But Teague will take shots in the offense with the right matchup and his minutes feel rather secure. The Suns are getting blitzed by opposing point guards this season, allowing about 17% more points than average to the position. They play at such a fast pace with matador defense that point guards are in a good spot. Teague falls right in that mid tier that's sometimes tough to roster on big slates, but I think he has a high floor.
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 45.84 DK - 47.29
Well I guess this is the real thing. At the beginning of the season we were all a little wary of Derozan's shot volume and overall aggressiveness. And yet with each passing game it solidifies that what he's doing this season isn't likely to slow down any time soon. He's attacking the paint over and over again with Russell Westbrook and Isaiah Thomas the only other two guards with his level of shots per game within ten feet of the basket. 35% of his shots come within that range. And he's attacking defenses by also pulling up in the lane when the drive isn't there. He's averaging an absurd 24 shots per game (almost none of them threes) and just paying off night after night. He's also getting to the line a ton (10.5 per game) and has just been at an MVP level. I think we can still buy on his floor considering how much he's shooting and this is a plus matchup against Denver.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.79 DK - 34.9
I wrote him up as a top play before the breakout game against the Thunder mentioning there were a bunch of reasons to consider buying low on Dipo. And what a breakout he was. Dude went nuts with a 29/10/5 line that ended up in the top tourney lineups of the night. Don't expect that as any kind of baseline, but there was reason to believe his shooting would regress at least some off his early season struggles. Like I said on Wednesday, the Thunder need this out of Oladipo considering how thin the team is in the backcourt. He doesn't see the same kind of steals he had with the Magic because he's guarding more off the ball, but if he can hit open threes off Russ drives and chip in weak-side rebounds then this is still very much a buy low price point.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 22.49 DK - 24
I can see rostering him no matter what, but I like him significantly more if Davis is out of the lineup again. Without Brow there are a lot of shots to go around in the Pels "offense". Moore has seen higher volume shooting games even with Davis on the floor so it's not like all is lost if the Pelicans are at full strength. But he's coming off a game that saw him put up 16 shots and this Blazer team isn't a defensive wall. He's simply a cheap play looking at minutes in the low 30s who can score.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.89 DK - 34.31
It's never fun rostering guys against Memphis, I get that. But there are exceptions to the rule and Barnes might be one of them tonight. J.J. Barea is out for the Mavs, Deron Williams is still a little banged up, Dirk hasn't played in a while and this team has been hit with the injury bug hard. It's left Barnes as the primary offensive weapon on the team. He's putting up so many shots, topped by his 24 attempt night against Boston on Wednesday that led to a 28/2/1 line. That rebounding total is really low for him and you can expect something in the middle. The pace hurts him in this matchup, but it's clear the Mavs are fine with him chucking and the price hasn't fully accounted for his minutes and opportunity.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 49.2 DK - 52.37
The Warriors for all of their offensive firepower this season appear to have lost something on the defensive end without specifically Bogut and Barnes. They are putting up a ton of points, but opposing teams are also staying in games just enough to give guys like Durant his minutes more often than not. This game only opens with the Warriors -6.5 which suggests Boston can stay in the game. We'll take it because G-Dubs has a monster 119 implied total and Durant could really put in work here. The move to Golden State has done nothing to effect his per minute averages that look nearly identical to what he did in OKC last season. He's averaging a 28/8/4 though it should be said he's shooting better from the field. That could be a byproduct of better looks because of support personnel. Between Durant and Lebron tonight (in the same price tier) I'd go Durant because of the matchup and the potential pace of this game.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 34.29
He got tilt benched in the third quarter by Coach Watson and never returned. If I had to guess I'd say that's an outlier meant to just wake a young team up. This was/is a guy playing minutes in the mid 30's on lock and putting up nearly 17 shots per game over the course of the season. I don't think he ends up just disappearing, do you? I love getting him as a contrarian play considering last game's fresh in people's minds. Warren's second on the team in shots behind Booker and the next closest guy (Bledsoe) isn't even really close. He's still a cog in the offense and I don't think you see a repeat of what happened last game. Decent matchup against the Pacers all things considered.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.63 DK - 37.28
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.14 DK - 29.84
I'm putting these guys together at the top of the power forwards list (Muscala is a C on DK) because they come with some very specific caveats. They are both totally dependent on injury news from their respective teams. If either Anthony Davis or Dwight Howard were to sit again tonight then both become almost must plays at their respective price points and implied opportunity. Jones is the much better play of the two and is coming off a 26/9/2 game against the Magic. He's shown upside like this before in his career when he's been given opportunity in an offense and would be an instant chalk play were Brow to sit.
Muscala doesn't have as much upside, but comes at a cheap price point. He played 33 minutes filling in for Howard on Wednesday and put in a 16/5/3 line that easily paid the day on his salary. I'd love to slot them both in again at a position among the toughest to fill on a nightly basis.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 43.09 DK - 45.82
After those two guys (who might not end up even being viable options) the points per dollar options get slim pretty damn quick. I actually don't mind paying up a bit for a Swiss Army knife guy like Draymond. He's basically the same player on this new Warriors' team with the per minute rebounding and assist numbers in line with what he did last year. What's down is the scoring, but it isn't for lack of trying. He's taking about the same amount of shots, they just aren't falling. His field goal % and three point percentages are both down off career averages. You have to think they begin rounding back into form as the season progresses and he continues getting quality looks.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.92 DK - 28.77
I dislike center tonight. I really do. It's a position I'm happy to go cheap/ punt away from Adams is in play here against a Brooklyn team that has almost no interior defense to speak of. Adams is very much just a guy where fantasy is concerned, but the Thunder do run him out there for around 30 per. He's seen a slight increase in shot attempts per minute in the offense this season and rebounding is where his stat line makes hay. But overall, Adams' biggest plus is just the safer minutes you get out of him. On a night light tonight at the center position, that's about all you can ask for.
From a per minute perspective he's a better play than Adams, but you just can't count on the minutes. Plumlee has a great matchup against the Pelicans who could be without Davis. After that, they have Asik (sort of) and no other real interior presence. Plumlee can move well down low and for a center passes real well out of the post. It's why his assist numbers are some of the best you'll see at the position. He's not a stretch five, but he's not a traditional center either. I just wish we could count on him for 30+ minutes a night. It's the uncertainty that makes him a little less safe.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.82 DK - 27.24
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View Comments
I had a GOOD night last night, keep it going!!!!!
You guys are the best at this, I spend a decent amount of time analyzing the lines the night before the game and your picks always seem to reinforce my research as well as add some wrinkles to things I didn't see. The only thing I would truly watch out for is giving out all the answers to the test everyday, great job on these picks!!!
Also, you may want to consider Kawhi..... it is an odd one but I don't think people will pick him with the slate tonight and I like the PACE on that one. LA has a high offensive efficiency, but they will pull the PACE of the Spurs up a few possessions and the plus minus 7.5 basically means that Kawhi will probably stay in the whole game (can't really cry about the o/u since the Spurs are set to gobble up 7.5 of it and it is 207 which is respectable regardless... no GS game though) while putting a whoopin on LA. The dvp is okay on it too, just seems like a cash play that flies under the radar??? Could be wrong, but I'm going to try. However the actual statistical correlation between small forward and Drtg/PACE is statistically insignificant so I tend to struggle at this position only since the stats don't tell enough of a story.
spurs are more comfortable putting their bigs into work these days, compare to the beginning of the season. So this is not all about the pace its about the way they play
Thanks for the kind words y'all! Really appreciate it.
I'm mad at you for telling me to pick up Rodriguez last night
Fantastic job!!! Thank you for spending the time to do this. I'm personally in a slump but it's bc i think I know more than you. Well I was wrong! All the info you put in on the "mid-talent" players really helps. Keep up the great job! If I wasn't broke from this week I'd send you some money.
Pau Gasol Revenge Game in LA?
Watch out for giving out all the answers to the test? Are you serious? Isn't that what all this is for? To help with some answers to the tests every night? IDK maybe it was a joke? Keep up the good work guys! Loud shout out to Doug Norrie, you the man with the master plan!
Wow no Seth Curry? The whole Dallas backcourt is basically out and he's had 36 and 38 in both starts this season on Fanduel.