Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns, left, is tied up by Denver Nuggets forward Joffrey Lauvergne, of France, during the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Oct. 30, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
After an oddly chalky huge slate Wednesday, we head into a short slate with plenty of uncertainty, lots of teams on back to backs, and some injury questions to boot. It should be noted, as always, that this article is just a primer for tonight's slate. For the best plays and lineups that are the most up to the minute you should hop in our free chat room or take a 3 day trial to our lineup optimizer. Let's get to the picks!
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.59 DK - 45.23
Well it doesn't have quite the same cache as Westbrook/Harden, but Lillard/Harden probably features players that are a little more similar anyways. The hope here of course is that the two stars wink at each other and agree to play no defense and focus on what they love to do best, put balls in hoops. I wrote this the last time I recommended Lillard, but he's added 2 drives per game to his repertoire this season, and his excellent 57% field goal percentage when he drives has led to an overall increase in his points scored in spite of the fact that he's shooting basically the same amount this season. Houston's settled in at a roughly league average pace at this point, but D'Antoni's squad is still plenty bad on the defensive end, sporting the league's 22nd best defensive efficiency. They're particularly weak at defending perimeter guys, they're on the 2nd half of a back to back after playing a frenetic OKC team, and I expect Lillard to have a fantastic game against them.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.84 DK - 29.08
The Wolves have rushed Rubio right back into his mid-30s minutes per game role, and it's done nice things for his fantasy value. He's paid an easy 5x points per dollar in his last two games, and one of those was against a slow Charlotte team. Today he'll be up against some combination of Sergio Rodriguez and TJ McConnell, two guys who couldn't defend voting against Trump this year (I kid, I kid). But yeah, Philly has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency this season, and when you pair that with a league average pace you get a good match-up for opposing ball handlers. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, have the fourth best offensive efficiency and are generally firing on all cylinders on that side of the court. I see Rubio as a solid double-up play with limited upside.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.17 DK - 27.86
Speaking of upside, what do we make of Jerian Grant? If Rondo is out again, you're looking at a guy who paid 8.5x points per dollar on this price in an admittedly better match-up with the Trailblazers. The Jazz are not a great match-up at all, but this is a case where the price just doesn't match the opportunity. If Rondo sits again, Grant winds up being the cheap guy that unlocks the rest of the big money plays you want to fit in elsewhere.
Also considered: Sergio Rodriguez. While Minnesota has been great on offense under Thibs, they've been positively brutal on defense. If you think Serge-Rod gets the minutes he could be an interesting tourney option.
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 56.95 DK - 60.66
Another night, another Harden chalk experience, on FanDuel at least. As the premier way to pay up tonight, Harden should see tons of play even on the 2nd half of a back to back. He leads the NBA in time of possession per game by nearly a minute over his brother in ball-dominance Russell Westbrook and isn't really showing any signs of slowing down. He's playing shooting guard and point guard for the Rockets, and now has career highs in points, rebounds, field goal percentage, and assists. And turnovers, but hey, no one's perfect. Portland's basically a league average match-up here, and miraculously, Harden's price still has room to climb. He'll be an obvious build-around guy if there is anywhere to save up whatsoever.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.8 DK - 29.45
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 25.22 DK - 26.64
You might not have to look outside of Harden's position to save up for him if Goran Dragic misses this game as expected. Richardson paid nearly 8x points per dollar on this price in a monstrous 38 minutes against the Hawks, and Waiters has 58 fantasy points over his last two games. I'll give Richardson the nod from a safety perspective thanks to the slightly cheaper price (on FD) and the fact that he dribbles the ball up the court, but both seem like more than respectable options against Milwaukee tonight. The fly in the ointment here, and a reason you might be able to take a better punt elsewhere, is the Bucks have actually been quite tough on opposing guards this season. Still, this is just another case where the price is plain wrong, and I'd be happy to play them at these prices regardless of the match-up.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 38.74 DK - 40.43
Getting Wiggy with it ain't as cheap as it used to be, but that's for good reason. He's averaged almost exactly 40 FanDuel fantasy points per game in his last 5 contests, and Thibodeau seems to have figured out how to unleash Wiggins' explosive speed and turn it into elite scoring production. The season-long stat line doesn't paint the whole picture. He's added 3 shots and 2 FTs per game while improving his percentages (particularly from 3), but he's averaged well over 20 shots per game in his last 5. I hate to overweight recent sample sizes, but the whole season is a small sample size at this point, and I'll trust the consistency in opportunity over that stretch. And then there's the match-up. Robert Covington has the reputation of a solid defender, but it hasn't born out in the stats this year. The 76ers have allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, and you can believe that Wiggins will be a huge start in double ups and big tournaments.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.12 DK - 42.08
No Favors? That's Hayward time, my friends. Hayward had been averaging better than 40 fantasy points a game until his puke-worthy performance against Memphis, but he'll have a significantly easier time against the Bulls in this one. They've been basically league average against opposing small forwards this season, whereas the Grizzlies have been a top 3 team against them. For his part, Hayward has added 2 shots per game and 2 rebounds per game over last year's totals, and it looks for all the world like he's just running bad from 3 so far. Shots and rebounds should both be in greater supply with Favors out of the picture, and I think Hayward is still a solid value even as the price continues to climb.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.64 DK - 31.93
How about that Otto Porter Jr.? We had him in our optimal lineups last night at a 12% start, and he went out there and put 7x points per dollar up for us. Thanks, Otto. Porter goes from a solid play to a spectacular play if Beal is out, and we now have 3 enormous fantasy performances (and 1 solid one) in his last 5 games. When things break right he's playing huge minutes, and he even led the team in shots last night. He's a phenomenal rebounder for the position to boot. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this year. Porter looks pretty great from where I'm sitting, and you could probably get separation on him given the higher profile guys listed above.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.29 DK - 22.49
With Favors out of the picture, the 30 fantasy points Lyles put up against the Grizzlies isn't out of the question here. What's more, though, is that power forward is just awful tonight. The combination of a terrible set of options and a pretty reasonable punt play moves Lyles to the top of my power forward rankings, and the match-up with the Bulls (while fine) is sort of neither here nor there.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.74 DK - 33.08
The sites are just begging you to play Dieng at these prices, and given the relative lack of options tonight, there's a chance that you should. I'm honestly not sure what to make of the guy. When things are clicking it looks like his floor should be 30 fantasy points, and then he'll miraculously disappear as both a scorer and a rebounder. The better Sixers interior defender will almost certainly have his hands full with Towns, which should leave Dieng with something of an offensive mismatch. I can't tell you honestly that I'm sure what Dieng will do here, but I do know that his underlying stats paint the picture of a guy who's pretty much the same as you've come to expect if you take the season-long view of things. Given how small a sample we're working with I think that's probably wise - he looks like a terrific big tournament play and a reasonable cash game option as well, even if he does take a steady hand.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.72 DK - 30.21
I'm not sure this is really what you want to be doing with your $6,000 at power forward either, but the upside here is undeniable, especially if Bradley Beal's shots are still up for grabs. Morris' average game will probably look a lot like Dieng's when it's all said and done this season, so you're really paying a premium here for his admittedly higher upside. He'll randomly shoot 20 times in some games, and if things are breaking right, it can lead to games like his 48 fantasy point monster against the Bulls. The Knicks are a nice match-up here - they've played a league average PACE with the league's worst defensive efficiency - so this game is as good a bet as any that we might wind up seeing Good Markieff in full effect. Or he could get 3 fouls in the first 5 minutes. Either way.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 36.93 DK - 38.41
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 50.28 DK - 52.34
After the wasteland at power forward, we get two excellent options at two different price points at center. In the cheaper category we get Embiid, a bonafide 1.2 fantasy point per minute guy. He'll square off against Towns, sure, but the Wolves have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per games to opposing centers this season - probably a function of their attempts to get out and score (admittedly effectively) in transition. And then there's Towns. He hasn't flexed huge upside on these prices, but he's been very steady, and Sixers have actually been the 2nd worst team when it comes to allowing fantasy points to opposing bigs. Ultimately I seem them both as pretty similar - fairly unlikely to give you HUGE points per dollar upside, but very unlikely to kill you as well.
A less chalk play: Robin Lopez. 3 straight games with 30 fantasy points, and he's still just $4,600. It's not flashy, but that's very solid points per dollar production, and I suspect you'll get separation from the field since he's a rather unassuming fantasy commodity.
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View Comments
Just a thing on Sergio...I wouldn't play him when Embiid plays. Embiid's usage is astronomical when he is on the court. Sergio usually doesn't have as much impact offensively.
I'm also not crazy about the greatest human of all time, Joel Embiid in this match up. He's going to be very excited to play against his buddy Wiggins and I think he'll turn the ball over too much.
Can't say I agree with the turnover guess, but the Sergio point is a fair one. Thanks for chiming in!
Sergio is actually better with Embiid in the lineup. He averages 24.5 FD Pts when Embiid plays and 22.1 FD Pts w/out.
Is there a reason you wouldn't like Antetokounmpo tonight? Other than, I guess, the game has one of the lowest projected totals. I have sort of a superstitious attachment to him -- in that I have cashed something every time he's been in my lineup -- but I'm sure I'm due to play him on one of his 30 point nights.....
5 Days of 0 wins. What's going on???
Would prolly fade Grant, he will be major chalk and he won't get 5 stls again not on jazz anyways.
This site was one of my gotos last season. They might be better mid-season, not sure. I do know this season has been wayyyyyy off