Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 11 11/20/16

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QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger FD 8400 DK 7500
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 23.46 DK - 24.32
Roethlisberger doesn't seem fully recovered yet, but it didn't stop him from having a monster fantasy performance against Dallas last week. He threw for 408 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, and also ran for a single yard. Got to love those running quarterbacks. On a serious note, the lack of mobility for Big Ben should be a mild concern for him going forward, but not in this match-up. Cleveland has allowed the most yards per attempt this season, the most passing touchdowns, and compiled the 5th fewest sacks. How's that for a passing defense resume? Not overthinking this one - it's looking like it's Ben time on all sites.

Blake Bortles FD 7200 DK 5400
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 20.93 DK - 22.19
If you want some separation? I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. Bortles has 3 stragiht weeks with 19 or more fantasy points, and he'll get his best match-up during that stretch in this game against the Lions. Detroit has allowed the 5th most yards per attempt this season, and somehow intercepted the ball just 4 times (which is Bortles' Achilles Heel). Detroit is favored here, but that only plays to Bortles strength as a garbage time expert. What Bortles really allows you to do here is pay up at some very attractive options elsewhere. He's $1,200 cheaper than the chalk on FanDuel, and wildly inexpensive on DraftKings. Don't go near the man for your 50/50 lineups, but for big tournaments he's a very interesting option.

Aaron Rodgers FD 9100 DK 7600
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 24.71 DK - 25.39
I've got to be honest, it's going to feel weird if we don't wind up rostering Rodgers in cash games this week. He's averaged 30 fantasy points per game during the last 3 weeks, and put up another monster against Tennessee last week in spite of a lot of things working against his favor. The return of Starks didn't seem to change things at all, and with his receivers trending healthier, Rodgers' ceiling continues to rise. He's rushing for touchdowns, passing for 300+ yards, throwing to Jordy Nelson 18 times in a game - what's not to love? Washington is basically a league average match-up, so nothing to see there. Rodgers just misses the top cash game slot because of the combination of his higher price and Ben's better match-up.

RUNNING BACKS

Le'Veon Bell FD 9100 DK 8800
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 26.87 DK - 30.59
It looked for most of the world that Le'Veon Bell had a bad match-up last week, but as we pointed out numerous times in our picks and podcasts last week, a lot of Dallas' success had come from facing a number of bad running games. Now Bell didn't exactly torch them on the ground, but that's arguably a mark in his favor here - he managed 134 yards and 2 touchdowns while averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. The YPC on Bell is an ongoing concern here to be sure, but the incredible targets out of the backfield more than make up for it, and he's the top guy in our system independent of match-up right now. And then there's the match-up. The Browns have allowed the second most rushing yards per game this season, and the Steelers have a great implied total this week. He's a great play in all formats.

Rob Kelley FD 5400 DK 4400
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 13.34 DK - 14.04
As of right now there aren't a lot of "new opportunity" punts at the running back position for this weekend. In Rob Kelley's case, though, he only really needs the opportunity he's been getting. Kelley has 22 and 21 carries in his last two games, and everything we're reading out of Washington says they're liking what they are seeing. He's lost yardage on only 2 of his 60 carries this season (hat tip to Rotoworld for that one), which makes him an ideal early yardage and goal line back. Green Bay has been generally tough on the run this season, but with the 'Skins favored and a Vegas total over 50, this is a much more favorable match-up than it may appear on paper. Unless something changes dramatically, Kelley looks like an excellent option.

Demarco Murray FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 18.73 DK - 20.42
In the safe if somewhat uninspiring category, I'm strongly considering incorporating Demarco Murray into my big tournament rotation this week. In a world where just 4 running backs had 100+ yards last week, Murray has put together 100+ rushing yards in three of his last four games. He's 3rd in the league in carries, and is his team's definitive goal line back. The question on Murray occasionally is game script - the Titans are not a good football team, and are certainly susceptible to being blown out from time to time. The good news here is that Vegas has this pegged as the highest total of the week, and gives Tennessee a fighting chance at +3. Love the upside here if things get cooking, and he's a reasonable cash game play as well.

LeGarrette Blount FD 7300 DK 6400
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 16.79 DK - 17.16
Can we consider Blount a safe fantasy option at this point? He's had a touchdown in all but 1 of the Patriots' games this season, and is averaging better than a touchdown per game. Unlike seasons past, Blount also appears to be the first option inside the 5, and he's often the 2nd option as well. And the Pats are favored by approximately 100 points against the 49ers this week. So what's not to love? Well, the Patriots have actually been very ineffective while running the ball in blowouts this year. Teams have been stacking the line more as the Pats have abandoned their "short passing is the new running" approach, and Blount has averaged 2.4, 3.8, 2.1, and 4.4 yards per carry in games decided by 10 or more points this season. Still, this price just feels to low for a definitive #1 and goal line back, so we're buyers here yet again.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown FD 8900 DK 9500
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 21.61 DK - 26.22
We were only really waiting for a healthy Big Ben back behind center to fully lock and load Antonio Brown into lineups. Because when the Steelers’ offense is firing on all cylinders then Brown is back to being the best receiver in football. Last week we saw what Pittsburgh will do with their offense with Brown seeing an incredible 18 targets on his way to a 14/154/1 line against the Cowboys in a true shootout. In fact, in his last three quarters of Brown is 21/239/2. Dude’s just an animal and the price hasn’t even fully caught up to life with Big Ben back in the fold. This week they’ll face the Browns who’ve been absolutely torched by WR1s this season. They rank 30th in DVOA against the other team’s stud and Brown makes for the highest floor cash game play at WR. Sure there’s blowout concern here, but stacking Brown and Bell in cash games feels all kinds of safe considering the opposition.

Stefon Diggs FD 6800 DK 7000
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 16.95 DK - 20.37
For the third week in a row we are on Diggs and I suspect the rest of the DFS community is finally going to come around to the opportunity. It’s nearly impossible to ignore at this point and Diggs, since Norv Turner exited the OC role in Minny, has become an elite target guy in this offense. He’s averaged 14 targets per week over the last three capped with last week’s 13/164 against the Redskins. Diggs is a possession guy who compliments Sam Bradford’s career passing efficiency. And if the Vikings are planning on passing more (because hell, they can’t really run the ball) then Diggs price just still isn’t close to actual value. He won’t be as contrarian as previous weeks because you can’t overlook the short term gains, but remains a cash game play. The one downside is Diggs doesn’t factor at all in the Vikes’ red zone game plan. He doesn’t even line up in their down and close sets. Any touchdown will have to come on a catch and run. That does limit the top end upside. But it’s really the only knock against him.

Jordy Nelson FD 7800 DK 7800
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 20.06 DK - 24.02
It’s been tough, on a week-to-week basis, to figure the Packer wide receiver corp opportunity. They have a deep unit and Aaron Rodgers will waste no time fully speading the ball around. Nelson has had some disappearing acts this season which can worry you considering the price. But the last three weeks could point to him coming back as the full on WR1 in Green Bay. He dominated the targets in Week 10 with 18 on his way to a 12/126/1 line. Like we mentioned with Rodgers, the Packers have almost no choice but to pass all game long seeing as how they have no real run game to speak of. Couple with Ty Montgomery being on a snap count and the wide receiver depth chart does get a little less crowded. Additionally, because they Packers deploy so many WR-heacy sets, it’s difficult for Nelson to see double coverage. Again, he’s a little riskier than the two guys above, and we’ll wait to hear if Josh Norman is shadowing him (which would downgrade the projection some) but the Redskins haven’t held firm to that game plan this season.

Tyreek Hill FD 5400 DK 4500
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 13.79 DK - 16.79
This is completely contingent on Jeremy Maclin being out again this week. If Maclin gets the nod then we can probably wipe Hill off the list and I’ll replace with another value play. Hill jumped to the top of the WR targets for KC last week in the absence of Maclin and saw 13 targets for 10/89. Not a fantastic yardage amount considering the amount of catches, but in full PPR scoring like DraftKings he’s close to a must play at the prices. Again, check in on Maclin as the week goes along.

Golden Tate FD 6600 DK 5300
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 15.78 DK - 19.5
It’s taken a few weeks but Tate is back to the target guy we projected early in the season after the departure of Calvin Johnson. Marvin Jones cut into that somewhat to start the year, but Matthew Stafford and the Lions have come to the reality that they’re best served working the possession reception game with a guy like Tate. He’s seeing close to 11 targets per game over the last four weeks and facing a Jaguars team ranked 27th in DVOA against WR2s. It’s always tough classifying depth chart stuff like this, but Tate lines up on the right side of the field 43% of the time where Jacksonville ranks 29th in the league. Tate’s an amazing deal on DraftKings where the $5300 for full point PPR feels like a complete steal.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Zach Miller FD 5500 DK 3800
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 12.93 DK - 16.11
First things first: Jay Cutler is terrible. Just want to get that out of the way to start and let you know I'm fully aware of the Bears' signal caller's issues. But for all his inaccuracy and bad decision making on the field, he still does find ways to get Miller targets. And there should be targets to go around this week. Alshon Jeffery's been suspended for four games thanks to PED use (which really didn't seem to help him at all last week) and that opens up opportunity all around in the Chicago passing game. Miller saw the second most targets on the team last week against the Bucs with 8 and with Jeffery out is the team's leading target guy on the season. Tight end just doesn't feel like the place to pay up most weeks and Week 11 is no different. We'll take the expectation Miller sees at least his target share if not more with less route runners in Chicago.

Jack Doyle FD 5000 DK 3300
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 12.71 DK - 15.94
Even with Dwayne Allen back from injury in Week 9, Doyle remained the TE1 in the Colts' offense. Tight end can often feel like a roulette wheel wherein you're hoping to just grab a lucky touchdown along with a few targets for somewhere in the 40-50 yard range. That's enough to get it done in the price tier we're usually targeting. Doyle does see red zone usage with Andrew Luck and the Titans rank in the bottom third of the league defending the tight end position.

Strongly consider Eric Ebron in this same price tier

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

New England Patriots vs. SF
The Pats have been a low upside defense this year for sure, so this is mostly a cash game play. They're bottom 5 in terms of both sacks and interceptions, which is sort of weird since they are often playing from ahead. So what gives? San Francisco scored 27 and 28 points in the first two weeks of the season, and haven't topped 23 since then. They're bad at passing and bad at running, and there's no reason to believe that will change this week. The price is right on the Pats here, and while I'm not dreaming on any upside, they're a good way to escape an unpredictable position cheaply.

Dallas Cowboys vs. BAL
It's hard to imagine the Ravens getting something, if anything, going against the 'Boys this week. Dallas is a -7.5 with the Ravens sitting at less than 19 implied points. Dallas can play the possession game all day long with their running attack and forcing Joe Flacco to throw gives them big upside in the interception game. I suspect Dallas is a chalkier play this week considering they're one of the cheaper defenses on the slate (both sites) with Vegas heavily weighting the game in their favor. Dallas doesn't have a ton of picks this year which could be a little run bad though they do get to the quarterback at around a league average clip. Total DST value play here.

Football, baby!

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You can grab a go test it out yourself.