Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Sunday NBA! Sundays are one of my favorite NBA days of the week, mostly thanks to how focused people are on their NFL lineups. We get people chasing their NFL losses, and people who are simply distracted by everything else that goes on during the biggest sports day of the week. Today's slate brings us some faced paced teams, some bad defensive teams, and plenty of value to go around. Enough preamble - on to the picks!
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Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 54.09 DK - 57.96
The most consistent big money fantasy commodity? Sure. The only thing that stops Russ from putting up big fantasy totals are blowouts where he isn't the whole Thunder's offense, which is to say, there's typically nothing stopping him. Orlando has actually been a lot tougher on point guards than you might think, but but that's far more a function of their PACE than their actual defense. Now a slow PACE is nothing to ignore - a player's production is as much a function of how many possessions he'll get as it is the opposing defense - but Orlando's complete lack of perimeter defense should be enough to push Westbrook into the 5x points per dollar range here. He's a great way to start your lineups, and it's probably best not to overthink things here.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.31 DK - 44.41
Lillard is kind of a funny player to analyze this season, because in a lot of ways, he's largely the same guy that he's been in the past. His shots per minute are nearly identical, as are his FT%, rebounds, and defensive stats. His assists are a little bit down. And... he's shooting 8% higher from the field overall. The positive side of variance, or a fundamental improvement in his game? Well, it's sort of tough to say. He's added 2 more drives per game (per SportVU data), and he's added 10% to his field goal percentage on those drives. As strange as it sounds, the huge increase we're seeing this seeing could be somewhat sustainable. Throw in the fact that Lillard had a huge game against Denver in their earlier meeting this season, and I imagine Lillard will be something of a chalk play.On
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.68 DK - 33.03
Mudiay's recent game log looks pretty erratic, but when you account for context it's really not so bad. He disappeared in an awful match-up with the Warriors, was excellent against Memphis and Boston, and has been a fairly steady bet for 5x points per dollar in games where Denver hangs around. He had no trouble getting his against Lillard and the Blazers in their only other match-up this season, and Vegas likes this as the 2nd highest total of the day with a spread much tighter than the GS/PHO game. As for Mudiay himself - you still have to hate his abysmal field goal percentage, but the combination of the increase in shots and the higher free throw percentage has me more optimistic than I'd be otherwise. He's a fine include for any format.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.42 DK - 39.03
After Westbrook, the PG position looks a bit more uncertain. Bledsoe and the Suns have been playing the league's fastest PACE this year, and Golden State has been playing the 6th fastest PACE. The Suns played them closely earlier in the season, and Bledsoe paid 5x points per dollar against them. And.... Vegas still seems the Warriors as 16 point favorites. What to do? Well, it's probably reasonable to relegate Bledsoe to your big tournament lineups, where you pair him with another Sun or two and two of Golden State's stars. You might get run out of the gym if it's a blowout, but it's the highest upside stack combination that I can see. Bledsoe is the perfect guy to potentially go off because he contributes across the board - he's got double-digit rebound & steal upside to go with those games where he randomly goes off. I'm not sure you can count on this for cash games here, but his role in the Phoenix offense is so large that I'm willing to at least consider it.
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Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.64 DK - 31.73
On one hand, I can only be pushed so far with any individual player. On the other hand, have you seen the price? With Dipo down in the low $5,000s, the value might just be too good. A lot of people are still clinging to this narrative that joining forces with Westbrook would hurt Oladipo's usage, but that simply hasn't been the case. He's taken more shots per minute this season, and more 3s as well. He's been dinged mostly by a decrease in rebounds and field goal percentage, and while the rebounds could be a real thing (Westbrook gobbles up a lot of the hustle boards), the increase in his 3pt field goal percentage leads me to believe he's actually seeing better looks this season than last. When everything comes out in the wash, I suspect he'll improve upon last season's fantasy points per game totals. If that's the case, then he'll wind up something like 10% more expensive than what you need to pay for him now. It's not a fantastic match-up with a slow Orlando squad, but throw in the old revenge factor narrative with solid statistical underpinnings here and you've got a solid play.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.75 DK - 34.21
From a somewhat boring cash game play, to an electric upside play. Why the hell not? Rubio is still out, and LaVine has flexed 8x points per dollar upside on these prices as recently as last game. The Lakers are an improved defensive team this year, but let's not get carried away. LaVine will still be chased around by some combination of Nick Young, Jordan Clarkson, and Lou Williams. The Lakers have also played the 3rd fastest PACE this season. It seems dramatically more likely that LaVine taps into his upside rather than his downside here, and I'd be willing to take the risk even if I was shooting for safety here.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.87 DK - 29.76
Another guy that seems risky and somewhat minutes dependent, but I'm not sure that's totally fair. It's pretty clear that the Magic want to play Fournier in the high 30s minutes, as the 3 games where he played fewer were due to a combination of blowouts and foul trouble. With Oladipo gone Fournier's shots per minute are up, and he's priced at a bargain to where he'll be once the rotation rounds out into more consistent form. Vegas likes this game to stay relatively close, and I believe Fournier is a much safer option than he appears against an OKC team that's playing the league's 7th fastest PACE.
Consider: Allen Crabbe - the upside on the price is undeniable, even if the production has been inconsistent so far.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.97 DK - 37.48
Speaking of good players in better match-ups, Wiggins is likely a slam dunk chalk play tonight. In his last two games he's somewhat shed his scoring dependent ways, and combined great scoring with some rebounding and even assists! While those were two solid match-ups against the Nets and Magic, things only get better from there. I mentioned the Lakers super fast pace earlier, and that should help make up forever whatever defensive improvement that Luol Deng has brought them at the small forward position. On a relatively short slate with a few big spreads, Wiggins seems like a classic safe midrange option.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 32.51
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.63 DK - 50.42
After Wiggins, things get a little bit dicey. But are they really so bad? Yes, this game has a fiercely high spread, but both Warren and Durant were excellent in their previous match-up, with Warren paying 37 fantasy points and Durant topping 52. Warren really can't cover Durant, and the Suns rely on Warren enough offensively that he should be able to at least put up some counting stats in a game that should feature lots of transition offense. And this game could be an incredible blowout. So, what to do for cash games? I suppose that's up to you. I believe these players have the highest expectation, though they also have the greatest variance.
A lower variance option: Maurice Harkless. Aminu's absence means more pie to go around for their forwards, and while he hasn't been super exciting, he offers a better points per dollar floor than Warren or Durant in what should be a closer game.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.31 DK - 25.41
Now here's a weird position. I can't say I'm in love with a lot of the power forward options today, which is usually a sign that I'm supposed to try and escape the position cheaply. You know who lets us do just that? Domantas Sabonis. He got wrecked in the last two games he played, pulling down just 2 rebounds in 56 minutes total. That's pretty much an embarrassment. But is it thanks to anything specific, or just bad match-ups and variance? For a guy his size, especially one who pulled down 10 boards against Hassan Whiteside, I'm ready to call it variance. If you're on board with that, then he should be an easy 5x points per dollar player on these paltry salaries, even in a slow match-up with the Thunder. I like him for high 20s minutes and 20ish fantasy points here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.94 DK - 33.06
Speaking of high upside guys you can't trust, oy. Dieng followed up a stretch of simply abysmal games by traveling back in time and slamming down the 6x points per dollar that he did in his sleep in his first 3 games this season. So, who's the real Dieng? Anybody's guess, I suppose. But at a bad position I'm willing to consider it even if the Lakers have been tougher on power forwards than they have other positions in the last couple of years. The Lakers do play fast, which has historically helped Dieng pile up boards and put backs since he can get up and down the floor reasonably well. I'm realizing now that I've recommended basically every T-Wolf. You can't play them all, and Dieng is a guy I'd readily cut if a better option came up thanks to late breaking news.
Some early options: Love and Marvin Williams. Both might be better options than the guys listed above. Damn you, scheduling Gods.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 30.03 DK - 31.3
A position with a couple of solid options! Plumlee appears to have been an enigma for the daily fantasy sites so far, as he's maintained his back-up prices even at starter's minutes. Some of that is thanks to his erratic minutes, but with Aminu out of the line-up that should generally be much less of an issue. And heck, even in games where's he's played 22-23 minutes he's frequently been good for 4.5x points per dollar on these prices. I love this Denver match-up in spite of Plumlee's somewhat lackluster performance against them earlier this season. The Denver bigs are generally much more interested in scoring than defense (which is why the Nuggets can never figure out their big rotations), and Plumlee's solid fundamentals on the glass and as a scorer should serve him well here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 44.67 DK - 46.52
Probably supposed to be the headliner at the position, and will likely be the chalk pay if people can afford him. Towns is expensive, but he's also an absolute monster, and he seems to thrive most when things are easy and he smells blood. Enter the Lakers! They pair the 3rd fastest pace with a rotating cast of big men that lack anything remotely close to Towns' athleticism, and it's pretty hard to imagine him not cashing in on a 5x points per dollar floor here. This could also play out with Towns getting the ball every position and physically making the Lakers quit by the 4th quarter. Seems like a very safe way to spend up if you have the money left over from savings elsewhere.
Have a great Sunday, y'all - hopefully it will be as fruitful as last Sunday's DFSR clean sweep of all slates for NBA and NFL!
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View Comments
The optimizer is really heavy on GS today. Can we really trust Curry and Durant's minutes against Phoenix?
Jake Layman G.O.A.T