Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/12/16

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Point Guards

Tim Frazier FD - $5700 DK - $6200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.49 DK - 31.47
Frazier has definitely been a bit up and down, but somewhat predictably. He has struggled on back to backs in which he played many fewer minutes. Today, he will face off with the Lakers, who happen to be one of the bottom 5 teams in the league against points, per usual. Frazier has plenty of upside, as shown by his 40 point games in the past. In both cash games and tournaments, I think you stack Frazier and AD and give it a shot. While he may not have the upside of the higher priced guys, he will likely have a better FP per $ than most of them, if not all. Frazier is still plenty cheap around the industry and is a good play for all formats.

Marcus Smart FD - $4900 DK - $5200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.07 DK - 30.4
Marcus Smart has quietly returned from injury and put up some big numbers. While we haven't seen the huge game just yet, he has been pretty consistent in the minutes he has been given. He takes on a Pacers team tonight tat has been top 5 in PACE, which plays a huge factor in a guy like Smart as he relies on peripherals. There are many ore peripherals to go around in a fast paced game, which brings some sort of safety to Smart as well. I think he gets a minimum of 30 minutes, and has an upside around 40 fantasy points. He is still priced fairly and can be considered for all formats, across the board.

Rajon Rondo FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.63 DK - 32.12
Rondo's game logs looked a little rough to start the season mostly because the Bulls were playing in an inordinate amount of blowouts. But last game they ran a close one against Miami and Rondo put a stat-filler together with a 16/6/12 line that was one of the top value plays of the night (we know, we had him in optimal lineups). This is a plus matchup against a Wiz team without John Wall and possibly without Beal as well. I don't think we'll seet the same pace from the Wiz, but their defensive rotations are beyond suspect. I'm a bit worried about a blowout but we are buying low on Rondo because of the early season minutes output.

Strongly consider Isaiah Thomas who sees a usage bump without Horford and Crowder in the lineup

 

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Shooting Guards

Devin Booker FD - $6500 DK - $6800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.7 DK - 34.82

Devin Booker is a really good scorer. i would probably argue that he is a top 12 scorer in the NBA. He may not be great at much else, but you don't really need to be when he puts up 35 points. The Nets are another team that has played extremely fast, 3rd fastest according to PACE. With Lin and Whitehead out, Kilpatrick will slide to the 1 and I expect Bogdanovic to man some minutes at the 2. If Booker matches up with Bogdanovic at any point in time, it is going to be an absolute bloodbath. I will look to take advantage of the injury ridden Nets and take some guys that may be able to work a mismatch.

Sean Kilpatrick FD - $5300 DK - $5500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.9 DK - 31.77
On the other side of things, we have Sean Kilpatrick. While he really isn't anything special on the court, he has been getting the usage and has had the ball in his hands a lot. He will continue both of those trends tonight against a Suns team, that like them, likes to run the court at a pretty healthy pace. Kilpatrick is pried below $5500 on both sites, so he really won't have to do too much to reach value. i think he has a pretty good upside as well, as he is a shooter and can get hot out of nowhere. I will look to target this game in multiple ways and I think it has a certain amount of healthy safety and upside.

Keep a very close eye on the Washington Wizard situation. They are playing without John Wall and possibly Bradley Beal. It makes them a terrible team but could give heavy minutes to Tomas Satoransky and Marcus Thornton.

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard FD - $8900 DK - $9400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 48.07 DK - 50.03

The Spurs and Rockets faced off last game and we really didn't see too much. Harden had a decent game and the Spurs ended up with a pretty balanced box score. We have to make sure that we can't use a 1 game sample size to predict the next game. While it is cool to see trends, it is mostly just that, cool, and not too useful. Leonard is a match up problem for the Rockets, especially if he is able to get Trevor Ariza in foul trouble, as he is the only one with a hint of a chance at stopping Leonard. I am willing to go back to Leonard here, and like him a lot more than I did against the Rockets last time. His ownership will be way down and you should be able to get a guy with elite upside for under 10% owned.

T.J. Warren FD - $6100 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.27 DK - 34.38

Yep, we're going right back to this game. T.J. Warren has been an animal this year and has made it quite clear that he intends to establish himself as a really good NBA player. He is extremely versatile, which we love in DFS as he can still have a good fantasy night when his shot is off. I am completely buying in to what we have seen, as that has been the plan all along. He was draft as an extremely raw talent, and has been polished up and spit out as a quality NBA player with a ton of upside in the coming years. The Nets have nobody on defense and the starters will have no chance as Bogdanovic is too slow and Kilpatrick is way too small. Warren is a strong play for both your cash games and tournaments.

 

Power Forwards

Paul Millsap FD - $7800 DK - $8000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.85 DK - 46.98
Moving onto power forward, we are going to look at Paul Millsap. Sure, you could pay up for Anthony Davis, but it might mess up your lineup today with all the sightly expensive guys that are in great spots. I am going to go with a balanced approach today in my cash games, and am willing to go a little crazy in tournaments. Millsap though, will be in both. He has been great this year and as expected, has increased his shots with Teague and Horford gone. The 76ers haven't had a good defender at the 4 position in a few years. They still don't and ill throw Richaun Holmes and Robert Covington at Millsap. Millsap will have huge advantage over both and will look to take advantage early and often. The 6ers also played a long game last night, so should be pretty sired on defense (especially Covington as he covered Paul George less than 24 hours ago.

Derrick Favors FD - $5900 DK - $6300
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 31.07 DK - 32.08
The price hasn't come close to catching up with the minutes Favors has seen in the short term. He's always been a talent but the issue with Favors centers on him getting buzzed off minutes either through injury or rotations. That doesn't appear an issue at this point and he's more than paying these salaries. This isn't an ideal matchup with the Heat who generally play at a slower pace but Miami is a bit banged up now. He's coming off an 18/9 game last night and the only real concern is the minutes getting managed on the back-to-back.

Tobias Harris FD - $5800 DK - $5800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 30.19 DK - 31.73

Moving don into the middle of the pricing spectrum, we are going to take a look at Tobias Harris. While Harris is never the 1st or 2nd option on offense, he consistently finds a way to put up shots and produce. He started off the season very well, and has fell into a bit of a cold spell as of late. I expect him to bounce back very soon and this could be the game. The Nuggets lack any kind of inside presence, which should open up the lane. Aside from there horrid defense, the 6ers tend to give up a lot of peripherals. Harris is a guy who makes a living off of those and should be able to rack up a good amount of them tonight. At his low price, he can be considered in both cash games and tournaments.

Strongly consider Anthony Davis though he's getting very expensive

 

Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $8600 DK - $8100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.4 DK - 41.53

I don't think DeAndre Jordan has the perception of being a bad defender, but he is. The Clippers ranked bottom 5 against centers last year, and look to be doing the same once again this year. Jordan has a tendency to step up and attempt to block shots, which often times leaves the C open for an easy dunk. With all of that being said, you can't play Towns for a few drop-off dunks. He is an absolute match up issue for Jordan. Towns is going to sit at the 3 point line and either drain 3's all night, or attack the rim and blow right past whoever is squaring him up on the perimeter. I am not sure how the Clippers handle this, besides maybe throwing Blake Griffin at him, who does have the athletic ability, but is just not good at defense.

Kelly Olynyk FD - $3500 DK - $3300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 22.74 DK - 24.05

I am definitely worried about the minutes here. it is the 2nd leg of a B2B, and Olynyk is coming off of an injury only a week ago. That being said, if he starts, you can pencil him in for at least 25 minutes. At minimum price, I will take that every time. Olynyk is very good when on the court and almost always will hit value if given the minutes. Against a Knicks team that can't cover centers, I look for Olynyk to get some open shots. Joakim Noah will have no chance of guarding anyone at the perimeter, though he could of 5 years ago before he couldn't bend his knees. All in all, he is a tournament play that brings plenty of upside to the table at his price.

Yes, you can consider Drummond against the lowly Nuggets interior. However, he had a game last night and has historically played many fewer minutes on the 2nd game of a B2B.

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