Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/11/16

Some slower, more defensive teams hit the schedule tonight leaving us to pick around the edges to find the best matchups. But have no fear, this is why you came here. We've got you covered for a big Friday in the NBA.

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $11500 DK - $11300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 59.7 DK - 63.34
Chris Paul is a real good defender so I am a little worried about this pick tonight. But there really aren't a lot of superstars going in general and the ones who are taking the court don't have the best matchups. OKC is projected to keep the game close with the Clips though that hasn't been easy for opposing teams. Lob City's been blowing the doors off teams this season and the last three games have been epic blowouts. But that shouldn't be the case here. Look, we all know Russ is a one man wrecking crew and even though he's trailed off from his early season triple-double ways, saying he's trailed off is only relative to his own success. On this slate I'm fine paying up and hoping OKC stays in the game at home. Which I think they will.

Jeff Teague FD - $6300 DK - $6700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.94 DK - 34.35
Since making the move to Indiana in the off season, Teague's seen a per minute increase in both his assist and rebounding numbers. And really the only reason the scoring's down per minute is because he's run a little bad from the field. Teague's only shooting 37% from the field (44% career average) and 24% from three (35% for his career). If you think he's due for regression in those spots then he's been underperforming expectations this year. He isn't a candidate to see huge minutes, but Philly's still a solid DFS matchup for point guards considering they don't have a ton of athleticism in the backcourt and are a bottom third team in defensive efficiency.

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Shooting Guards

DeMar DeRozan FD - $9000 DK - $8200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.97 DK - 43.33
He's been able to sustain a level of scoring I didn't think possible after his early season dominance. But Demar's just throwing up so many shots game in, game out that he's a candidate to continue the scoring pace. Over his last five games he's still putting up 23 shots per game and getting efficient looks in the lane. The driving nature of his game also has him getting to the line a ton (more than 11 times per game) and that alone gives him a higher scoring floor on any given night. And finally, the most important piece of safety for Derozan is the minutes. He's running close to 40 each night. That time on the court helps him overcome his lack of rebounding and assists. I'm fine paying up here on a night with a bunch of tough defensive matchups.

Avery Bradley FD - $6900 DK - $7000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.98 DK - 34.74
With Horford and Crowder shelved in the short term we've seen a couple of key contributions from Bradley. Most notably, the rebounding is way up this season. After averaging just a little more than two boards per game last season, he's tripled the output and it is now close to eight per game. That's a marked shift in style for Bradley and it's yielding major fantasy upside. In the past, Bradley was mostly a scorer who would chip in here and there along the rest of the stats. But now he's added an almost elite level (for a SG) skill on the glass. Love the floor if that trend continues.

Courtney Lee FD - $3900 DK - $3800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 21.52 DK - 22.86
Lee isn't the first, or second, or third (or maybe even fourth) option on offense which will limit his upside on a nightly basis. But he's a dude who falls under the solid minutes category and that makes a big difference considering his prices. But he is seeing about 9 shots per game with minutes in the 30's (even more of late) and faces a Boston team really struggling this season on defense. The Celtics rank dead last in defensive efficiency thanks in some parts to early season injuries to Al Horford and Jaw Crowder. They've had to sort of throw together rotations which aren't totally working. Lee is a cheap dude at a rough position and I'm happy to get away from it without allocating too much in the way of salary.

Small Forwards

LeBron James FD - $9900 DK - $10200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 48.71 DK - 51.35
Washington isn't playing as fast a pace as last year, but they are still rough on the defensive end ranking in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency. Lebron's balanced game lends itself to a very high floor on a nightly basis though he's unlikely to hit top tier upside considering he doesn't go crazy in the scoring department. Lebron's game is more balanced and he's been deferring shots to guys like Irving and Love in the offense. That means that while he's relative "safe" he rarely hits the stratosphere. I do love the matchup here against the Wiz and as always he creates major mismatches for them on defense.

Gordon Hayward FD - $7400 DK - $7200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.99 DK - 41.07
He's come back from the early season injury and hasn't missed a step at all. Hayward's come out firing on all cylinders and is already putting up a ton of shots. He's averaging 18 looks a game in his first three and two of the first three games saw him putting up eight threes. If he's going to be this kind of usage guy in the Jazz offense then there's a lot of room for growth in his prices. Hayward also isn't a one trick pony. He's averaging 6 boards and 3 assists as well. This is a good matchup against an Orlando team struggling to find any kind of identity on either side of the ball. Hayward's an easy cash game play for me on both sites and I suspect he goes somewhat under-owned mostly because others will trend to slightly more popular names.

Carmelo Anthony FD - $7700 DK - $7400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 38.93 DK - 41.07
I worried what the addition of Derek Rose to the Knicks' lineup would do for a guy like Melo. After all, Rose has never been known to create shots for teammates and I worried this was a team with at least two totally ball dominant players. What I didn't really consider was just how bad the Knicks' point guard play's been in years passed. It was so far below replacement level and Rose, just from and athleticism standpoint, is a major upgrade. Melo's still seeing his shots though the rebounds and assists are down a bit. That's built into the price and he's facing the worst defensive efficiency team in the league today.

Consider Mo Harkless on the cheap

Power Forwards

Derrick Favors FD - $5900 DK - $6200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 30.89 DK - 31.97
The Jazz eased him along slowly after sitting the first couple of games this season. But it appears he's good to go with the minutes increasing into the mid 30s for his last matchup. The price isn't anywhere close to this kind of opportunity and I think (assuming the Jazz don't manage his minutes) he's about a must play in cash games. Besides just the security in minutes, Favors is getting his on the inside with double digit looks per game and strong rebounding performances. We are buying so, so low on this kind of production and he will be in cash games for me almost without a doubt. The Orlando interior defense is weak and he should be able to take advantage.

Kevin Love FD - $7500 DK - $7600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.82 DK - 40.21
I made mention of it in the Lebron writeup, but there's been a slight shift in the Cav's game plan on offense this season. Lebron's been shooting less with guys like Love getting a few more looks. He's seeing more shots (and specifically threes) per minute this season and is even runnng a little off his career averages from beyond the arc. That being said, the rebounding and assists are down some because of this new approach. I like love in what should be a moderate temp boost for the Cavs against a weak defensive team in the Wiz.

Marvin Williams FD - $5000 DK - $4800
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 25.31 DK - 26.76
Toronto isn't a fantastic matchup from a pace perspective and Marvin doesn't necessarily jump off the page at you. But this guy's playing 30 minutes on lock and I'll take that from a guy in the $5K range. The season his field goal attempts are way up mostly because he's shooting 3x the three pointers he was last season. That's a crazy jump in outside looks and he's even running above his career efficiency from beyond the arc. I don't think the six trey attempts per game continues but the fact that he's even getting them is nuts.

Centers

Mason Plumlee FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.44 DK - 31.69
The Kings have a number of big bodies they can throw down low meaning Plumlee should see heavy court time in this one. He actually can range a bit to deal with the Boogie mismatch or body up Koufos. I think he sees more of the former in this game so of course foul trouble is a concern. But again, the Blazers have incentive to play him somewhat major minutes or else risk being completely outsized on the blocks. Plumlee can score inside in the right matchup and if on the course long enough should have no issue hitting value on these prices. What I'm looking for the most is the minutes and the potential double-double which could follow if his run's in the low-to-mid 30's.

Joel Embiid FD - $5200 DK - $5900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 37.3 DK - 38.45
He's still just too cheap. Dude, imagine if this guy played a full compliment of minutes each night! And sure, I just dropped a "dude" on you but it's mostly because I'm excited about this guy's potential. Even at a projected 24 minutes (his cap) and at a $5200 FD salary he's still a value.  Seems crazy that could be the case, but here we are. In only 21 minutes per game this season Embiid's averaging a crazy 18/7. There aren't many guys in the league who can do this on such limited time. He's a future star for sure and the only thing holding these prices in check is the minutes' cap. It likely won't be lifted this season, but I think you'll see the price continue to climb. Because when he's on the court he just straight dominates. He'll get a weaker Pacer interior defense tonight and could make the most of his limited run.

DeAndre Jordan FD - $6700 DK - $6600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.85 DK - 35.99
The Clips haven't had to play in close games lately keeping Jordan's price low across the industry. But it's worth noting that his shots per minute are way, way up over last season and the rebounding is right line with his per minutes averages from last season. That could mean big things if this game stays close and he sees run in the mid 30's. Jordan won't ever be a huge scorer because he mostly relies on the pick and roll to the rim as well as put back shots. He's not a post player. But again, that's priced in here. This game projects to stay close and we are buying him way cheap.

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