Sacramento Kings' DeMarcus Cousins (15) drives the ball past Houston Rockets' Joey Dorsey in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, April 1, 2015, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
We are coming off a really weird night in the NBA that featured a ton of blowouts except for the one we thought would go down. The Pelicans were able to keep it close with the Warriors while seemingly everyone else had the game runaway in one direction or the other. Let's root for a bit more stability tonight with some really interesting DFS matchups.
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.38 DK - 42.65
It doesn't look like Deron Williams is going play against the Lakers on Tuesday and with both he and Dirk shelved we can run out the Maverick value train again. Barea started for Deron on Sunday and went 46 minutes (which included 5 in overtime). Look for healthy run again with the Dallas roster looking very thin at the moment. Barea got up 18 shots against the Bucks and rolled to a 21/6/5 line. His price has come up in the short term especially on DraftKings and he's no longer a punt. But the opportunity is about as good as any starting PG and he's actually probably closer to a $7K player in the current Mavs' make up. The Lakers push the pace and this is a tempo uptick (big time) for Dallas. Barea is a top cash option assuming D-Will sits.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 48.46 DK - 51.86
We were expecting a big game from Dame last week when he played the Suns in what ended up being an OT win by Phoenix. But he struggled from the field and especially from three where he went 1-8. But that was the exception, not the rule, this season for Lillard who's averaging a 32/6/5 as the engine who makes the Blazers go. The Suns are playing the third fastest pace in the league and are a bottom ten team in terms of defensive efficiency. Lillard is definitely a better deal on DraftKings where I see the floor as high especially if he's knocking down the three.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 37.48 DK - 40.07
From a DFS and value perspective there isn’t a ton I love about the Cleveland-Atlanta game. I think it will be fun to watch, don’t get me wrong. But most of the players are a bit too expensive considering the respective matchups. But you have to like what Kyrie is doing this season. His shots are up about 15% and the three point attempts are up around 40%. Sure, the assists are down but that’s because Lebron’s been deferring more scoring going Kyrie’s way. If the trend continues then we are buying low on Irving here.
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.51 DK - 34.75
Dude's spent the better part of the last two games just going into the stratosphere. My goodness. We knew Booker had pedigree and upside, but this is really something. In the last two games (admittedly against New Orleans and LA - dream matchups) he's jacked up 51 shots and 77 points. You can't pencil him in for that crazy kind of volume going forward, but he does lead the team in scoring for good reason. He was pedestrian against the Blazers last week, but that was his first game back from the toe injury. This game has the highest over/under on the night and should see a ton of scoring. Why not get the Suns' leading guy in that case? Price isn't out of bounds though know that Booker needs to be firing to his upside seeing as how he doesn't do much in the way of assists or rebounds.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 22.64 DK - 24.26
This one is a bit speculative because we aren't exactly sure where Kyle Korver's close to 30 minutes per game are going to go but Hardaway does stand to see a minutes' uptick at shooting guard almost no matter what here. He's played well enough on a per minute basis this season averaging 12/2 in only about 20 minutes per. The matchup against Cleveland isn't ideal but we are mostly looking at Hardaway's sub $4K salary on both sites with the prospect of increasing his minutes in the 30-40% range. He'll need to take threes though unlike Korver he is bit more adept at creating his own shot which can help in the usage department especially when changing up rotations.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.35 DK - 33.83
Welp. I know, I know. Feel free to lambast me in the comments section with what a dope I am with this pick. Honestly, I'm torn on Wes. For starters there was last game where he sa an epic 44 minutes and somehow managed only a 9/1/1 line. That's nearly impossible for any basketball player to be so futile in so many minutes but 3-17 from the field (3-14 from three) will do that. And not being able to pick up any other stats in that court time is disturbing. But you simply will not see this many minutes from anyone in his price range and there's a definite usage bump for Wes when D-Will and Dirk are off the court. He's only three games removed from a 25 point game so I think there's hope. But I get it if you want to make fun of me here.
Consider Nick Young on the cheap
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.28 DK - 36.85
Dirk's already been ruled out for this one which means we are going to see a steady diet of Barnes in this one. He's a direct beneficiary of no Nowitzki because the Mavs will tend to go small at slot him at the four in different rotations. He played a whopping 48 minutes in the OT win against the Bucks on Sunday and he could trend up near 40 again here. In that game he jacked up 26 shots from the field on his way to a 34/8/2 line. Of course this will likely be high best fantasy game of the season, but the FanDuel price has barely moved. He gets a nice DFS matchup against the uptempo Lakers who've come right out of the gate as the fastest pace team in the league. Barnes is a pretty easy cash game play here and likely the chalk on at least FanDuel.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.5 DK - 32.45
The price keeps climbing and he keeps paying. Warren's one of the reasons Phoenix has been able to actually win two games this season and fight in some of their losses. He's been fantastic, putting up 18 shots per game on his way to being the Suns' second leading scorer after Booker. That's cut dramatically into Bledsoe's shot selection and honestly the Suns are likely better off for it. Warren will mix in rebounding and this game should be much like the first meeting which saw 233 total points go up on the board in a Suns OT win. Some might look at the price hike on TJ and think he's out of the mix, but I'm still on board.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.51 DK - 31.78
I get a little squeamish about rostering Wiggins in cash games simply because so much of his fantasy output comes from scoring. That gives him both a limited ceiling and a lower floor because he can't make up the difference in other ways. This season 80% of his FanDuel scoring has come from putting the ball in the basket. That's real bad news when the shot isn't falling like last game against OKC. I do like the matchup against a bad defensive Nets squad and think he will provide mismatches on the offensive end. And again, he is a scorer so if the shot volume is there then his price makes him a decent buy. But there's caution in the way he provides his overall scoring.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 52.54 DK - 54.21
Pretty simple really. If the Pelicans can stay in a close game then he's about as good a DFS option as you'll have on a nightly basis. The key of course is that first part because the Pelicans are pretty bad outside of Brow and there isn't much light at the end of the tunnel. He was fantastic last night against the Warriors and almost single-handedly kept the Pels in the game with another double-double and huge scoring upside thanks to the insane volume he's getting. The Pels need him taking shots because the rest of the their options are limited. This is a solid matchup against the Kings and I think Davis will be chalk tonight.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.32 DK - 34.65
I'm aware that the theme of these picks is Mavs and Wolves. That isn't lost on me at all. It's just one of those nights where we get teams with solid minutes expectations playing against rough defensive teams. The other thing about a team like the Wolves is some of their players remain a value because the team's been in so many blowouts this season that they haven't been able to stay consistent with their fantasy production. Dieng's per minute stats are fine enough and he is able to do little bits of everything so that when the shot isn't falling (or he's fourth down on the usage ladder). But he's close to double digit rebounds while only averaging about 32 minutes a game (he'll play more in a close) affair and does chip in some blocks and steals. I think he has a high floor against the Nets if the game stays close.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.95 DK - 24.05
The minutes appear secure enough with him in the starting lineup. The 17 minutes game against the Clips was thanks to foul trouble, something he doesn't run a huge risk of tonight. Green is just a guy, but he's a cheap guy considering minutes in the high twenties-lower thirties are on the table against a weaker Denver front court defense. It’s also a positive sign for his upside that he’s taking more threes this season (around three per game). That gives him some scoring chances we see out of stretch fours.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 54.21 DK - 56.99
It can be hard going to the Boogie well in DFS. You need to fade the emotional outburts leading to technicals, the three quick fouls he'll grab when he gets frustrated and some games where he appears emotionally checked out. But after all of those dodges you have a guy with about as much upside in the league. He's averaging a 26/9 this season with the field goal attempts right in line last year and a big bump in getting to the line where he's going about 15% more than last year in less minutes. He's been hurt a little by not having a good point guard on the court (Ty Lawson) but does get Darren Collison back tonight. The Pelicans get lit up by power forwards and centers alike so no worries about the DVP there. Boogie is coming at a crazy value especially on FanDuel.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.12 DK - 45.22
On paper it can look like KAT's performance has been up and down this season, but that's mostly because two of the first four T-Wolves' games have been blowouts. In close ones he's seeing a ton of floor time (which makes sense under Thibs) and he's still averaging a 22/8/3. Brooklyn and Bro-Lo aren't known for their post defense and KAT is a generational talent. It was good to see him produce without Rubio running the point as well as Minny gets more used to its backcourt situation. I don't think we've seen the top end of his salaries either.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.62 DK - 29.7
It's a little hard to totally trust the minutes as you can't be certain how much the Mavs are willing to run the guy on some older legs. But last game with no Dirk Bogut played minutes into the 30's (again OT helped some there) and he was a monster on the glass pulling down 16 boards. The lack of shooting is a bit of a concern as he's simply not getting up looks in this offense. But the potential time on the court plus the rebounding is almost enough to make him a value play. It will be tempting to be very heavy on the Mavs tonight considering their situation and of all the guys I wrote up for Dallas, I'm least intrigued by Bogut. But he's so cheap.
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View Comments
Nice article today. I can not argue against any of these players. Anyone have any thoughts on a 3K Randy Foye?
It's a trap lol. Dude got me a goose egg in his first game back...
Hey everyone so I purchased the optimizer here at DFSR and when everyone says it’s great and all what places are you guys coming in? Because I’ve had zero luck the past 2WEEKS with it so is there something I’m missing or…….
Let the optimizer be a small part of your research already done. I know with the optimizer and my own research I was up $160 this weekend, plus I ran out 30 line-ups. You can if you want, but....I never use one of the line-ups straight out. I take the line-up and compare it to my research and work from there.
I find the optimizer is really good in 50/50 or double ups. It's a little every day but still making headway.
Yea I mean it a ok guide to follow I guess. I've tried Roto ql as well and I like they're insights
Hi Shawn, if you use only their optimizer its aweful in every format. I have kept track for the past ten days and none of their lineups have won. You jabs to use it as a guide. I also use fantasy labs and won 7/10 for the past few days with theirs. I tend to see what players they both agree on and that helps but never just trust the optimizer although it is helpful to have.
I have to disagree! I've used the optimizer to win quite a bit this year (again). You just have to know what contests tl play. You are probably nlt going to take down a huge gpp, but double ups, 50/50s and small tournements are all fair game. I placed first in 3 mini dribblers, 2 mini swats, and won $150 in a $1 gpp, not to mention numerous cash games and low end cash outs on big gpps.
The last few days the optimizer has been a dud, but that's because the "value" guys have been putting up 9 points. I used it last year and it was great for 50/50, and would get you in the low money for tourneys. It had Favors rank kind of high last night, but I ignored it because of his minutes and the back to back, so sometimes it can provide insight into plays for GPPs that you wouldn't think about.
There are days where just plugging in DFSR optimal lineup works to win in all formats but other days not so much. The best route to go in my opinion is to find a couple guys u really like with Gd matchups and plug them in with 5 or 6 guys from optimizer. I also use fantasy labs which is the perfect tool for guys that know what to look for. This process has me cashing 75% of the time. Last few days have been brutal though since the value plays haven't returned value.
Tyson Chandler missed shootaround and might not play. Alex Len will be a good play tonight if he missed.