Miami Heats Hassan Whiteside, right, defends against Atlanta Hawks Kent Bazemore in the first quarter of an NBA basketball game Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
What a weekend! Our NFL lineup optimizer put in nearly the stone cold nuts as its top overall lineup, and our NBA lineups powered through to reasonable finishes in spite of all time worst performances from Durant (Friday), Boogie (Saturday), and Giannis (Sunday). As of this writing Giannis has played 5 minutes and netted 2.5 fantasy points in the first half. Daily fantasy basketball, baby!
We return to a larger slate on Monday, with 7 games and lots of potentially wild game scripts. As of now things look relatively sane, so let's get to breaking down some value plays to send us back to the top of the cash game charts!
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Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 55.86 DK - 58.84
A bigger slate promises at least a couple of punts, and the hottest payoff for punting right now is almost assuredly Russell Westbrook. Westbrook nearly paid 5x points per dollar on these prices in just 3 quarters of work against the T-Wolves, and the ridiculous usage here makes him a play even in a not-so-hot match-up with a slow Miami team. I'm not sure he has the points per dollar upside of a guy like Durant (who could go off for cheaper in a faster paced game), but if you're looking for a high floor, you probably don't need to look any further.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.11 DK - 34.16
Don't mind George Hill, he'll just sit around paying 6x points per dollar on this FanDuel price in 3 of his last 4 games while everyone basically ignores him. I just love everything about Hill's game right now - he's getting in the lane, creating shots for others, and shooting 53% from the field. Hill's shots per minute have increased by 43% in the absence of the ball-dominant players he left behind, and while that number will come down to Earth somewhat with Favors and Hayward playing more time, it isn't likely to change when he squares off with Sergio Rodriguez on Monday night.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 27.1 DK - 29.34
I'm generally reluctant to recommend anyone against the Jazz. They're on their 2nd straight season at by far the league's slowest PACE, and they're returning some of their best rim protectors to full time duty. So what's up with Sergio? Well, he's running the offense for a not-as-bad Sixers team, and looks like he'll be nearly a fantasy point per minute guy in league-average match-ups going forward. The Jazz are something less than that, sure, but even a healthy haircut on Rodriguez's expectation leaves him paying 5x points per dollar here, which should be more than enough to make him a viable double-up option. He's not the guy you want for upside, but the floor here should be quite high.
For upside/headaches, consider Elfrid Payton.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.8 DK - 38
Conventional wisdom has Bradley Beal putting up better totals when John Wall sits, but in watching every Washington game this season, I actually think Wall's presence opens the floor up for Beal quite a bit. Beal is just not a natural shot creator - he's much better when he's using his speed to come off screens and either cut to the basket or pull up from downtown. While it's too early to make any grand proclamations when it comes to defense vs. position stats this season, the Rockets' dead-last ranking in overall defensive efficiency lines up quite nicely with what the eyeball test says - they're clueless as they try to adopt D'Antoni's new "scheme." They've looked ridiculous against the pick and roll, and you can just forget it if they have to switch or rotate. Beal's finding the gaps here - I love him in any format.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 24.95 DK - 27.09
Since he won't be busy playing much defense, you can consider grabbing Eric Gordon on the offensive end! Gordon is a real 1 trick pony so far, but that one trick has yielded 4 5x points per dollar performances in the Rockets' 6 games so far this season. Washington has slowed their PACE down a bit this season, but are still a bottom 10 defense per defensive efficiency. Gordon does so little besides score that you can't really call him a high upside play, but at a generally lousy position, I'm a buyer for cash games.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.13 DK - 28.1
Hood is another member of the Jazz who has no trouble paying 6x points per dollar on these paltry prices, and while he too should be affected by Gordon Hayward returning to full time duty, it didn't play out that way in the Knicks game on Sunday. Hood led the Jazz in minutes, and was 2nd on the team in shots. While he won't average the lofty shots-per-minute total that he's put together so far, he won't need to to be worth more than $5,400 against a terrible Sixers defense.
Whither James Harden? I don't mind Harden today at all, really. It's just that you can only pay up at so many positions, and it's not clear to me that shooting guard is where you'd like to do that. His price has gone up, and while he's likely worth the hefty tag if he's going to run the point, I'm just not sure I want him over Westbrook's consistency or Davis' upside.
Two semi-awkward considers: Victor Oladipo and Klay Thompson. Will they ever find their stroke in their new situations? It seems like they have to, right? At some point catching these falling knives will be correct, though I'm not sure I have the stomach for it until I see it once.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.82 DK - 30.01
Winslow has increased his shots per game by 250% and tripled his assists per game from last season, and his price has only climbed about 25%. The math just don't work. The dip in field goal percentage suggests he might not be up to the task of lofting 15+ shots per game, but again, he doesn't need to to be worth more than these paltry prices. Paying 5x-6x points per dollar has been trivial for him in non-blowouts this season, and while the Thunder have played tough on defense this year, they've also played one of the league's fastest paces. Winslow is an easy inclusion for 50/50 and double-ups for sure.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 40.24 DK - 41.65
It's hard to look at Butler's last game against the Pacers and feel like he won't have more like them going forward. People were worried that the Bulls would have trouble feeding everyone, and the fact that Rondo and Wade made as many field goals (5) on 20 shots as Butler did on 7 shots should tell you what will happen from time to time. The thing is, though, it hadn't really played that way at all until then. Butler's shots per minute are in line with last season's numbers, and he's sitting on career highs in both field goal percentage and three-point percentage. He's also priced at a slight discount to what we needed to pay for him last season, and he seems like a great cash game play against one of the league's consistently worst defenses.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.97 DK - 29.45
A high upside option if safety isn't your thing. Porter has spurts where he looks like the best rebounder at the position (see his 2 13 rebound games in his last 3 games) but also has games where he looks indifferent to everything except getting his on the offensive end (see the 0 rebound game he stuffed between the 2 13 rebounders). When Porter is active and hustling, he's frequently rewarded with more involvement on the offensive end as well. Which Porter will show up against the fast paced Rockets? My hunch is that the increased possessions and frenetic pace will keep Porter involved, and we'll see a nice total here.
The spendy option: Kevin Durant, but can you trust anyone on Golden State in a game that A) should be a blowout and B) could feature anyone as the #1 option? Still, KD seems the safest of the Golden Boys.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.7 DK - 32.47
The most erratic Morris brother has put up back to back games of 6x points per dollar, but he hasn't exactly made it look easy. No one fluctuates from jogging between foul lines and shooting every possession like Markieff, but the Wizards seem oddly comfortable with him taking over occasionally. Well, that opportunity should be there against the undersized Ryan Anderson here. Morris' price has only ticked upward, and he's almost certainly worth something like $6,500 if his apparently locked in 36 minute rotation is to be believed. Love him in any format.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 25.37 DK - 27.37
Anderson sure looked a lot more comfortable draining threes to cut leads from double to single digits in New Orleans last year, but he's not without his uses in Houston. He's only averaged 4x points per dollar on these prices so far this season, but like a lot of guys who has trouble creating their own shots, his value is highly match-up dependent. I have a hard time believing Markieff is going to chase him off screens all game, and I believe he'll instead opt to try and pound Anderson down low. Anderson seems like a high floor option here.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 55.15 DK - 56.58
Probably just an upside play, right? But man, is it a juicy one. The Warriors are playing at a patently absurd 105.1 PACE this season (the highest in the NBA), and they've shown that this new arrangement of pieces hasn't gelled together in quite the same way that the record-setting squad did last year. Enter... Antonio Davis? Brow is one of the few big men equipped to thrive in a fast paced game, and I'm just getting these visions of him grabbing non-stop rebounds and dunking in transition every other possession. And the Pelicans could also lose by 50 while the Warriors prove they're gelling just fine. I'm prepared for anything, and that's why Davis will be in a lot of my big tournament lineups.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 44.58 DK - 46.01
Are we finally seeing an unchained Hassan Whiteside? The Heat big man has 14 or more rebounds in all but one of his games this season, and was positively dominant in what should have been his toughest match-up of the season with the Spurs. Volume rebounders and put back scorers like Whitside thrive when the game is faster than usual, and the Thunder's 3rd fastest PACE in the NBA should play right into the hands of those hoping to see Whiteside put up big counting stats. Center is pretty thin today (just like it is every day), and while Hassan is not a traditional big money payoff for punting elsewhere, I actually think he has as much upside here after the big 3 of Davis/Harden/Westbrook. The floor is lower as well to be sure, and Steven Adams is no slouch defensively, but I still view Whiteside as the safest center on the board today.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.7 DK - 38.12
The stifle tower at $6,700? In this right match-up, sure. Gobert is back to his old ones this season, putting up a consistent 9/11/2 with a couple of blocks per game. In the right match-up, though, he can simply dominate down low. I believe this to be that match-up. When Embiid is out of the game the Sixers don't have another plus rebounder in their front court, and the unsophisticated drives of guys like Rodriguez and Stauskas are a blocks feeding frenzy waiting to happen. This price is just a little steep for what I'd like to pay ideally, but this has all the makings of a 15+ rebound 4+ blocks game, which should make him worth it.
Also considered: Steven Adams. An increased role has been kind to him this season - his minutes are up, sure, but he's shooting and scoring more minute than last season, and has nearly quadrupled his steals rate. It's a tough match-up with Whiteside, but I believe the upside is there to consider him.
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View Comments
I have to take Embiid every single time he plays, if for nothing else but enjoyment.
I agree Vince. Amazing what he could do if they turn him loose for 30+ minutes.
I will limit my criticism today as it appears that Ty Lawson has an off day. Looking forward to seeing his name here tomorrow.
Actually I think Darren Collison will be back from suspensions for tomorrow's game Jerome so we won't have to read about Lawson anymore!
George Hill is questionable tonight
Took Hill out and put Teague in. I thought long and hard about Rondo. I did two line ups tonight and went a different way with each. I actually like these game tonight.
Also, he's on here, but Hood seems like a really good play. Sixers don't bother to guard 3-point shooters.
so Westbrook/Durant or Westbrook/The Brow??? Advice???
No love for Tyler Johnson at $4900?
Do we like Tim Frazier today? Played well against GS last week and the minutes should be there with no more Stevenson. And who is the play if George Hill sits?