Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/6/16

Sunday Funday, y'all! All day basketball, all day NFL, what more could you ask for? Sundays are my favorite day to fire off daily fantasy basketball lineups because way too many people are overly focused on football. Don't get me wrong, football is great and all, but my heart will always be with hoops. Today we've got a lot to parse, and as of this writing (the night before), there's still a lot of uncertainty around potential starters and news. Still, I'll do my best to do a general overview, and you'll just have to check back in closer to line-up locks tomorrow to get the full picture. Just say hi in the chat or sign-up for the line-up optimizer for more info on who we land on for each specific slate.

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Point Guard

Kyle Lowry FD - $7500 DK - $7700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.52 DK - 44.58
At this point there's no doubt that DeMar DeRozan is going to carry the majority of the offensive load in Toronto, but our projection system believes that there is still a lot of value to be had grabbing Kyle Lowry at these reduced prices. Lowry has paid these prices and then some in 2 of his last 3 games, and given the incredible minutes he's playing right now, it's hard to believe that he's not still an $8,000 player. He's had some health struggles in the past, but the superb steal totals in the last 3 lead me to believe that some of his early season woes were nothing more than waking up on the wrong side of normal variance. It's a plus-plus match-up with Ty Lawson and the Kings. While the Kings have played much more slowly this season, their defensive efficiency is still among the bottom 5 in the league, and Lowry should have a great spot here.

Ty Lawson FD - $4900 DK - $5000
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.17 DK - 28.94
But, hey, not playing a lot of defense doesn't mean Mr. Lawson is worth less than $5,000! Lawson is well settled into a 34-36 minute rotation, and his 6.6 minutes of time of possession (per SportVU data) per game actually ranks ahead of guys like Kyle Lowry and Kyrie Irving. It's certainly still the Boogie show in Sacramento, but Lawson will have a hard time not being worth at least 10%-15% more if he continues with this level of possession and minutes. Rudy Gay likely being out again only sweetens the deal - Lawson is a great play in any format.

Early slate special
George Hill FD - $6000 DK - $6400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.82 DK - 32.59
George Hill took a step back against San Antonio, but that was to be expected against such a fantastic defensive team. The Knicks are a lot of things, but being solid on defense ain't one of them. Their putrid 109.1 defensive efficiency rating this season is tied for 3rd worst in the NBA, and given that Hill has been solidly better than 5x points per dollar on these prices all season, I'm thinking he should at least replicate those totals against the hapless Knicks defense. Gordon Hayward's return gives me a little bit of pause from a usage perspective, but his 20 or so minutes shouldn't affect things too much. Hill seems fine in any format on a 2 game early slate.

If JJ Barea starts again, you can consider him as well.

Shooting Guard

Devin Booker FD - $5900 DK - $6100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.38 DK - 34.42
It's been something of a bumpy ride for Booker during this young season, but coming off one of the best games of his career against the Pelicans, I'd guess his confidence is at an all time high. He shot 13-22 for 38 points, and while he continues to contribute very little outside of his scoring, it was nice to see him get to the line 9 times. On a short slate today he'll get to square off against some combination of Nick Young and Lou Williams - two guys who are great scorers but have never stuck in a starting lineup anywhere thanks to their complete ineptitude (or indifference) on the defensive end. I'm not sure Booker is a $6,000 player going forward, but he should play 38+ minutes in a very favorable match-up, which ought to be enough at a shallow position today.

DeMar DeRozan FD - $8800 DK - $8300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.78 DK - 43.29
DeMar DeRozan has averaged a Herculean 25.4 shots per game this season. If he maintains that pace, it will be the most field goals per game attempted since Kobe Bryant in 2005-2006. Which is to say, he's probably an underdog to maintain anything like that pace for a whole season. Honestly, though, he really doesn't need to shoot 25 times per game to be worth these prices, particularly in a great match-up with the Kings. He's averaging 12 drives per game (5th in the NBA) and shooting 62% on those drives - just a super efficient rate for such a high volume driver. If DeRozan's offensive game is really maturing the way it seems to be, we could see him put up huge points on a combination of field goal and free throw attempts tonight.

Some cheaper options: I actually don't mind Nick Young today. He's been paying his minimum prices pretty handily, and Booker isn't exactly a stud on the defensive end himself. Wes Matthews continues to remain a high upside enigma. If he maintains this volume and his shots start falling he's worth 20% more. But if he's really going to shoot 20% he's probably not even worth current prices. Either way, he's worth keeping on your radar.

Small Forward

Jaylen Brown FD - $3800 DK - $4000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.47 DK - 30.09
Boston unleashed their first round pick to maximum effect on Thursday, and Nets fans everywhere (okay, just in NJ and Brooklyn) cringed in horror. Brown flashed his incredible athleticism and motor, which was to be expected, but also demonstrated way more polish than most assumed he'd have coming out of college early. It'd be shocking if he shot anywhere near 50% from 3 for the season, but the fact that opposing teams even need to respect him from downtown is a big disaster for them defensively. As of now the assumption is that he'll start for Crowder again on Sunday, which should make him an absolute chalk play against a terrible Denver defense.

Harrison Barnes FD - $5100 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.41 DK - 31.92
Aside from his one huge game against Houston, it's hard to say that Barnes is flourishing in Dallas. But he has been solid. He's playing big minutes while Dirk collects some early season rest, and frankly, the Mavs just don't have a lot of options at the 3 right now. The Bucks, meanwhile, have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. That number should give you a little pause since it's such a limited sample size, but their top ten PACE and bottom 10 defensive efficiency make it look fairly likely that they're at least below average here. I expect Barnes to be a good cash game, if a limited ceiling guy here.

T.J. Warren FD - $6300 DK - $6700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.26 DK - 34.28
In the market to spend up a little for more upside? How about TJ Warren! I'm delighted to brag that we've had TJ Warren in our optimal line-ups since he started going off this season, and frankly, he's been a huge reason why our line-up optimizer has been so successful this season. He's starting to brush up against being too expensive at these prices (particularly on DK), but he could honestly be worth even more than this in the right match-up. He's playing 36+ minutes per game, taking 18 shots per game, and chipping in solid totals on the boards and on the defensive end as well. PJ Tucker is a distant memory here. It's a great spot against the Lakers, and I don't think Warren turns into a pumpkin just yet.

Power Forward

Omri Casspi FD - $3900 DK - $3900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 22.79 DK - 24.21
Only if he gets another start, of course. As of this writing, though, Casspi has a rather effortless 13 fantasy points at halftime of the Kings-Bucks game. Casspi has big time punt pedigree, being worth mid-$5,000 totals when given starters minutes in the past. With Gay and Barnes both dealing with rib-cage issues, he stands to continue to be in line for 30+ minute rotations. At these prices, that basically makes him match-up proof.

Al-Farouq Aminu FD - $4900 DK - $4700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 25.12 DK - 26.67
It's pretty dire straits at power forward tonight, but I actually trust Aminu here quite a bit. He's been making the most of his 30-32 minute rotation, turning in 5x points per dollar in 4 straight games. Memphis isn't the devastating match-up for opposing big men that they have been in the past, and at a position where you're really going to want to get away cheaply, Aminu is a high-floor way to do so.

Julius Randle FD - $6300 DK - $6200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.34 DK - 29.72
Randle has been pretty up and down so far this season, but that's served to keep his price below where it will eventually be when the Lakers figure out exactly how to use him. He was dominant against 3 great opponents this year - GS, OKC, and HOU - and pretty much sucked against everyone else. Still, his scoring/rebounding package is in line with guys priced in the mid $7,000s when everything is clicking and he gets his minutes. But will he get his minutes? It's sort of anyone's guess. I'm hoping to only fire Randle off in big tournaments today, but I'd be willing to roster him in 50/50s if Casspi winds up going back to the bench in what should be a super-fast paced game with a poor defensive team in Phoenix.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $9700 DK - $10100
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 52.9 DK - 55.25
It's the second half of a back to back and all, but Cousins has had plenty of rest this season thanks to constantly being in foul trouble. Err, do I damn him with faint praise? At any rate, Cousins' overall shots per game are down so far this year, but that's largely an illusion thanks to his getting to the line so frequently. His usage is basically the same as last year. While he's not a tremendous value in a tough match-up with a slow Toronto team, you're going to need to find payoffs for your excellent punts somewhere, and he's a fine option at a shallow position. The Raptors have lost a lot of defensive bite down low with the departure of Biyombo, and the offense-first Valanciunas will have his hands full here. There's real foul trouble risk here to be sure thanks to Valanciunas' solid post game, but I'm willing to stomach it to get the highest upside big money player today.

Tyson Chandler FD - $4700 DK - $4600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.8 DK - 26.9
Speaking of high upside, have you seen what Chandler has been up to this season? He's rebounding at an absurd rate - pulling down 18 boards in back to back games - and chipping in just enough put back/pick and roll finishes to pay his prices and then some. With three games of 29.1 fantasy points or more in his last 4, it looks for all the world like he's a $5,500 center at the moment. It's an all-world match-up with the Lakers even if Mozgov does play 18 minutes or whatever, and I'm tempted to just roll with Chandler and try to pay up with elsewhere. The only thing that might stop me are the schizophrenic Suns, who change their minds about who gets the minutes way too frequently for me to trust anything. Still, Chandler seems like by far the highest points per dollar upside guy at the position.

Consider: Jonas Valanciunas.

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