Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 98 - 11/5/16

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Daily Fantasy MMA is back! After a brutal one month hiatus thanks to a cancelled card, the UFC returns Saturday night in Mexico City for Fight Night 98 – Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson. It’s a good, not great card, but it’s filled with one thing strategic DFS players can take advantage of – recency bias. There are tons of plays that look great or terrible based on a fighter’s last outing. It’s important to look at recent form, but you need to dig deeper than one fight. Obviously, sometimes the popular (recent) perception is correct and sometimes it’s very wrong and that’s where we can make our money. With that said, let’s get to the picks for UFC Fight Night 98.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Enrique Barzola ($9,500)

Vegas Line: -600
Finish Prop: +146
Career Record: 11-3-1
UFC Record: 1-1
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  3.10
Finishes: 4 KO / 4 Sub / 2 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Sub
Last Time Out: L, Split Decision – Kyle Bochniak

I’m not exactly going out on a limb with this one as Enrique Barzola is the highest priced fighter this week, but on a lack luster card for dominant fantasy options he has to be mentioned. The pick isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Barzola but more of an indictment of his opponent, Chris Avila, who simply isn’t a UFC caliber fighter. Avila found his way onto the last Diaz card as he trains with the brothers and lost a unanimous decision to Artem Lobov. Barzola isn’t a world beater but he should steam roll Avila, which is supported by Vegas with -600 odds to win and +146 to finish. Fire away on Barzola in all formats as I think there’s enough value out there to make up for the salary.

Prediction: Barzola – 2^nd Round TKO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

Tony Ferguson ($7,900)

Vegas Line: +125
Finish Prop: +173
Career Record: 21-3
UFC Record: 11-1
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  4.56
Finishes: 9 KO / 8 Sub / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 2^nd Round Submission (Brabo Choke) – Lando Vannata

There are quite a few fights on this card that I don’t think will be particularly fun, but the main event should be worth the price of admission. Off the bat, I’m probably going to stack the main event in cash games but Tony Ferguson will be my preferred GPP option. That recency bias I mentioned earlier works too ways with the other half of the main event, Rafael dos Anjos. In his last bout, RFA was KO’d in the first round by Eddie Alvarez to lose the lightweight title (he’s better than that) but to win the title he KO’d Donald Cerrone in the first round (he isn’t that good of a finisher).

In his last 20 fights, Ferguson has twice as many first round stoppages as dos Anjos but that’s because he hunts for them super aggressively, which is great for DFS but does leave him open to being countered. Vegas doesn’t expect this fight to go to the scorecards and I totally agree with that as it should be an action packed fight filled with fantasy goodness. I’ll have plenty of exposure to the main event but if a quick finish comes, I expect Ferguson to have his hand raised and finally get a title shot.

Prediction: Ferguson – 4^th Round TKO

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & UNDER)

Jason Novelli ($7,300)

Vegas Line: +145
Finish Prop: +329
Career Record: 11-2-1
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 3-1-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 1.25
Finishes: 3 KO / 6 Sub / 4 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:  1 KO
Last Time Out: L, 2^nd Round KO – David Teymur

Before I get to Jason Novelli….go watch his opponent’s last fight, Marco Polo Reyes vs. Dong Hyun Kim. Seriously, go watch it. Fight of the Year candidate and if either guy had any name recognition it would win Fight of the Year, hands down. Did you watch it? Good, now let’s break down Saturday’s fight.

Novelli did lose his UFC debut but I really think David Teymur is a guy who is going to make some serious noise in 2017. Despite being the underdog versus Reyes, Novelli has the better inside the distance prop at +329 and his opponent has been finished in the first-round three times in his career. Reyes is also vulnerable to the submission, tapping out twice in nine fights while more than half off Novelli’s wins have come via the sub. Depending on roster construction and because of his salary, Novelli may find his way into a few of my cash lineups despite the matchup being a little more volatile than I’d like.  Novelli’s real upside here is in tournaments as a tailored made GPP play and I expect him to be really, really low owned.

Prediction: Novelli – 1st Round Submission (Rear Naked Choke)

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.