Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) drives the lane in the first half of an NBA basketball game against the New Orleans Pelicans in New Orleans, Saturday, March 26, 2016. The Raptors won 115-91. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
It's a full Wednesday slate in the NBA and we are keeping the good times rolling around here. The season is off to such an amazing start with the optimal lineups and we've found value around every edge. There's more on tap for tonight.
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Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.16 DK - 33.5
He continues his steady ways holding down the point guard duties for the Pelicans and the opportunity isn't going away any time soon. New Orleans isn't a good team, but unlike a squad like the Nets say, we aren't too worried about them screwing around with the rotations. Frazier is locked into his mid-to-high 30's minutes on a night basis and he contributes in basically every facet of the game. We can't expect Memphis to run out the trainwreck of a squad they employed against the T-Wolves last night so expect the pace to come down quite a bit. But Frazier hasn't seen the FD price move much at all. He's getting too close to the breaking point on DK considering Memphis will likely slow things down. But I'll take the savings on FanDuel.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 50.74 DK - 54.16
He's coming on the second half of the back-to-back tonight after the loss to the Warriors last night. I'm not worried about the Blazers managing his minutes or anything and he has a dream matchup against the Suns who've spent the better part of the last couple of seasons just getting steamrolled by point guards. Opposing ones just have a field day with this team, conservatively scoring 10% (probably closer to 13%) more than league average. The Suns play at a fast pace and have little idea what their doing on the defensive end. I love Lillard in this matchup and think he's pushing up against safe even at his prices. The shots are there for sure and though the spread indicates blowout risk it would likely be on the back of his effort.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.4 DK - 40.53
Lowry was in something of an early season shooting funk before breaking it out of it against Denver on Monday. He dialed up a 29/7/5 line as he was able to drive and penetrate agains the weaker Nuggets' interior defense. The three point shooting still hasn't been there, but if he's creating off the dribble then I think he has a fine floor. The Wiz did play at a quicker pace last season, something that should benefit Lowry's usage and volume in this game. He's still a value play on both sites where he sits considerably less than the top tier point guard type. If you think the three point shooting is due for some regression then there's even upside in an uptempo game.
Strongly consider Kemba Walker
A note on Russell Westbrook: He's been amazing that's for sure. He's also been gifted with playing the Suns, Lakers and Sixers to start the season. The Clippers are a different animal and I think if you want to fade the triple-double machine then this might be the spot.
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 40.9 DK - 42.34
It didn't stand to reason Demar would be able to keep up his insane early season usage rates where he averaged 27.5 shots per game through the first two contests. He came down a little in game three against Denver but that was to 23 shots against Denver on the way to a 33/5/1 line. It's clearly fine for the Raptors to allow Derozan free range to drive the lane and get midrange looks. This is a solid matchup against Washington who's come out in the first two games with the lowest defensive efficiency in the league. They played at a fast pace last season and are basically the same squad. Derozan needs to score to hit value as he doesn't contribute in many other ways across the box score. But man that usage is so enticing. He'll have a game where the shot simply doesn't fall and we'll be left holding the bag. But Demar's come out of the box hot and few other players see this kind of shot volume.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 26.42 DK - 28.34
We don't typically like recommending plays against the Raptors because they are a slower team, but the perimeter defense isn't fantastic and Beal is coming very cheap. He isn't a 39 minute a game dude like the Wiz used to run him for, but that's built into the price. It's tough to evaluate the Wiz so far this season after really only playing in one game (first was a blowout) and the second went to overtime. Beal needs to shoot and shoot a lot to hit his price considering he doesn't get involved in many other facets of the game. But he will put up about five threes a game and has run a little bad to start the season. The Raptors do allow less than average fantasy production to opposing two guards, but it's hard for me to get away from the mid tier price at a weaker position.
Consider Kyle Korver if you think he sees a full compliment of minutes against the Lakers. Devin Booker is also in a good spot I think but the injury is worrisome.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.63 DK - 30.53
The bad news is the Suns suck. The good news is Warren's come out of the gate willing to put the ball up which is no easy feat when sharing the court with guys like Bledsoe and Booker (or Brandon Knight). But Warren is averaging the most field goal attempts per game on the squad now at nearly 17 per. That's definitely an inflated number so I wouldn't pencil him in for that going forward. But with PJ Tucker still banged up and the Suns needing everything they can get on offense, he's still a solid high floor cash game play. Portland's coming on the back-to-back and the Suns have been willing to play starters deeper even in possible blowouts mostly because why the hell not?
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.99 DK - 42.05
The Knicks are slight favorites in what Vegas has as one of the higher implied totals on the night. It says more about Houston than it does about New York but we'll for sure take an upgrade in pace for Melo. He did play 35 minutes last night which has me slightly concerned if Hornacek decides to manage the playing time on no rest. But the encouraging sign is Anthony saw fit to get up 18 shots last night against the Pistons. He's seeing slight decreases in his per minute rebounding and assists which make sense considering the new players around him in Zinger, Rose and to a lesser degree Noah. I still like the lower prices on him though as a volume shooter and this game should have some pace to it for the Knicks.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 36.97 DK - 38.55
Butler (and the rest of the Bulls) haven't had to play a full run of minutes lately mostly because they've handled their two games against the Nets and the Pacers with relative ease. That's left Butler's minutes and overall production on the lower side of things. And yet we need look back only to last week in the Bulls first game against the Celtics to a reasonable comp for Butler's projected run in a close game. He played 37 minutes on his way to a 24/7/3/2 line. The big change for Butler this season is the increase in three point looks. He's shooting about 50% more from beyond the arc which was one thing we were worried about for the Bulls this season. And yet guys like he and Wade are filling that need for Chicago. Like I said, Butler's price has stayed in check because of the blowouts but this is a good time to get him out there.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 58.65 DK - 60.11
It's tough playing anyone in DFS against the Grizzlies because of their slower pace and interior defense thanks in part to Marc Gasol. The latter sat last night on the front end of the back-to-back and will be back out there tonight. The Pelicans went small last night against Milwaukee with Cunningham at the four and Davis at the five. You might see Asik back tonight to front Gasol early moving Brow back to the four. He's been such an animal with just another ho-hum performance last night to the tune of 35/15 and 3 blocks and steals each. It's just getting dumb and the FanDuel and DK price continue sitting under 11K. I'm fine running him even in a less-than-deal matchup.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.6 DK - 39.75
We've seen the Rockets willingness to just allow opposing teams to score over, and over and over again this season. Cleveland racked up 127 in regulation last night and they've allowed a ton of points in general. This is a big time pace upgrade for the Knicks and considering the Knicks' starters didn't see a ton of run last night you have to think it will be there tonight. Kristaps isn't a guy who gets out in the open court, but he does provide some mismatch opportunities especially against the Rockets' personnel.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 26 DK - 27.75
We had Saric as a value play in optimal lineups and he came through solidly with a 23/1/1 line that more than paid his salaries which haven't moved for today. The two things we though would happen would be a minutes increase and some regression in the field goal percentage. Both hit and he knocked down 3-4 from beyond the arc. He probably isn't a 31 minute a game guy with the current Philly rotations and the addition of Ersan Ilyasova but he should still be locked into minutes in the high 20's as the Sixers' staff gets more confident in his game. He's still a value play all around and though he ran hot from three the rebounds weren't there last night. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle and I'm fine running him out there again on the cheap.
Strongly consider Tobias Harris
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.94 DK - 36.27
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 32.1 DK - 33.11
They are facing each other don't have true backups and neither is known for their interior defense. This could be a center match made in heaven! Jonas has seen a massive spike in his usage and shot attempts this year as Toronto isn't getting away from him early in games like the past couple of seasons. He's seeing more consistent minutes and putting up over 14 shots per game. He's also beasting on the boards with over 12 per game and seeing that number increase on a per minute basis as compared to his career averages. It's just coming together for the guy as he no longer has a logical defensive replacement like he had in the past with Biyombo. I see him as very safe tonight.
On the other side of the ball is Gortat who has seen decidedly less shots this season. He's put up 9 total in two games. That number is worrisome though they were against Marc Gasol and Dwight Howard. That will effect a C's usage and I like him tonight on the upswing in a much better matchup against Jonas. With Ian Mahinmi still out the Wiz will need Gortat to front Jonas here without much frontcourt depth. He's still coming very cheap though I am just a bit concerned on the lack of shots.
Strongly consider Andre Drummond
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View Comments
Keep up the great work, making a little headway every night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This has been very helpful thank you!!!
Fantastic 5 x my money last night on DK Thanks Mike
how many big guns do you guys use in your Draftking lineups
Al Horford is out tonight just a heads up
Who is the best injury replacement play for tonight? Jerebko, Black or Nance, Hollis Thompson or Gerald Henderson.
How are Thompson or Henderson injury replacements? I love Amir Johnson. I think he should get a solid minutes bump.
I think it's Tyler Zeller for 3k with Horford out.
The reason Henderson is starting is because Embiid is sitting.
Yea. Henderson, a SG who has started the teams first 3 games is now only starting because Embiid, a center, is sitting lol. Okafor is starting for Embiid. This won't have any influence on the backcourt.
Lin vs DET or schroder vs LAL?