Anthony Davis (23) de los Pelicans de Nueva Orleáns se desmarca de Derrick Favors (15) del Jazz de Utah el miércoles 10 de febrero de 2016. (AP Foto/Tyler Kaufman)
We ring in the month of November with a little Brow, some Alphabet and a weird 6:00 PM EST game to throw you and family just a little out of whack. It's all good. We've got you covered for another NBA tilt.
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 31.24 DK - 33.74
The price has barely moved on the guy since the start of the year and that's great news for us. The Pelicans are so thin at point guard with both Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans away from the team that they need Frazier's ballhandling. But he hasn't just been a game manager, getting up around 12 shots per game to go with about nine assists per. There's really no one butting up against his playing time leaving the Pelicans as basically a two man show (we'll get to the other man a little further down). Frazier is just the exact kind of cash game play we're looking for when it comes to "safe" minutes and usage.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.51 DK - 34.56
Frank Vogel hasn't brought the kind of consistency in minutes I thought we'd get on the Magic with Scott Skiles leaving, but the uncertainty is basically confined to the front court. He's been steady Eddie with the backcourt minutes and Payton is getting run in the mid 30's. In non blowout games he's good for his volume averaging around 14 points per game in the first three with the assist numbers down just a little off his career averages. He'll take on the Sixers who still play at a top 10 pace in the league without really any vast improvement on defense. I like Payton a bit more on DraftKings where he's cheaper than Frazier.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.87 DK - 46.67
Steph's still coming a bit cheaper all things considered even with having accounted for the 10% or so dip in usage he's seen this year with Durant around. That's fine as the price is down about the same amount. Where he's really seen a hit (and it's something we might see continue) is in the rebounding. With Durant active on the glass (much more so than Barnes) Curry's not getting the boards he needs to keep his floor higher. I see him more as a GPP play, but the matchup against Lillard is nice as the latter isn't known in any circles for lock down D.
Consider Ish Smith on the cheaper side for DK. Also, if you think Damian Lillard goes all crazy usage against the Warriors tonight then have at it. But he's pretty expensive.
UPDATE: Right after publishing this Ricky Rubio was ruled out. That makes Kris Dunn a near must start punt play
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 45.99 DK - 47.47
The rest of the team is basically a mess to try and figure out but there's solid stability in Giannis's projected outputs. Dude's basically turned into the fantasy superstar we've been waiting for, handling more of the offense and basically contributing in every facet of the game. He's averaging a 23/9/5 to start the year with some defensive stats to boot. New Orleans is a dream matchup here as they're playing a top three pace in the league. Like I said, the Bucks are a little helter-skelter with their minutes but Giannis is good for 35 minutes or more on a nightly basis.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.89 DK - 34.76
Do you think he's going to keep shooting 14% from beyond the arc this year? Me neither. Klay's run bad to start the season in his bread and butter area, offering us a nice chance to buy somewhat low on him. $5800 on FanDuel is basically a dare to play him and I think it's a rather easy cash game decision. Sure, some of the per minute stats are down this season. That stands to reason with a fantasy beast like Durant around. But this again, that is more than priced in at this point. The game against Portland projects to be close with by far the highest over/under total on the slate at 228.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.93 DK - 27.53
He's seeing both minutes and shots in this Miami offense and both of those could line up for a solid outing against the Kings tonight. Sure, Sacramento's slowed things down a little from last year without Rondo, but they're still pretty garbage on defense. Waiters is getting up double digit (12.7 per game) looks while contributing bits and pieces in rebounding and assists (5 and 3 per game respectively). I love the price on him for both sites considering his run appears rather secure.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 26.47 DK - 27.66
One thing's more than evident from the start of the season and that's the Heat without Bosh and Wade have plenty of shots to go elsewhere. Winslow's been one of the guys with a significant uptick. He's seeing about double the shots per minute he had from last season helping to average a 14/6/4 through the first three games. Oh and you have to assume the 9% from three isn't going to last. That means there's actually a fair bit of upside with the scoring at these prices. This is basically a lock for me in cash games and he's a fantastic high ceiling tournament guy because Justise finds a number of ways to score.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.95 DK - 32.26
There is a plenty of lower mid tier value on this slate for small forward. I think you'll likely find yourself paying up at the other positions. Gordon suffers from some of the Magic minute uncertainty and saw the run get dumped some with return of Biyombo. Orlando has somewhat of a logjam in the front court which has me a little worried on the guy's safety for cash games. But he can score when given the opportunity and this game represents an up in pace for the Magic.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 28.66
The Sixers can sometimes be a fantasy quagmire because they'll go a mile wide and in deep in their rotations. But we've seen they with play RoCo in closer games on the wing. Philly is only a five point dog going in and Covington played 32 minutes in a close game against OKC. He's a guy who needs to do a little bit of everything to hit value and will need to put up a few threes as well. Small forward (after Winslow) is pretty stain-y and I don't love much of it. But if you think Covington trends towards thirty minutes then you are getting a solid floor at his sub 5K prices.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 61.87 DK - 63.36
Man, I mean what can you say about the guy at this point? He's turning into the dominant fantasy (and real) player we've been waiting for since draft night. Davis has always been a fantasy monster when on the court (and that latter piece is a real thing with the injury concerns) but this season he's taken the leap because the Pelicans have made it rather clear their offensive strategy. They want him to take all of the shots. In his first two games Brow averaged 32.5 attempts and has seen around a 30% increase in looks per minute year-over-year from 15-16. That includes a game against a defensive stalwart in the Spurs. Dude's just been nuts and we'll ride the train until he randomly gets hurt and heads to the locker room mid game (it's coming folks he says only as a half joke). It's hard to fade these salaries too considering the output and on a night without many expensive options Davis is likely the chalk.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.34 DK - 32.61
There's just so much safety in set minutes and with Thibs coaching in Minny now we have it with that team. They've played nearly identical rotations in their first two games, a hallmark of the coach and we can take it to the bank he'll continue his plan. It's not totally clear he and KAT are compliments to each other on either side of the ball, but it looks like Thibs will stick with it for now giving Gorgeous Gorgui a chance to continue his double-double ways. He's gone 13/13 to start the season and is only a few days removed from putting up a 12/14 against this same Memphis team. Memphis continues their plodding ways making them a less than amazing fantasy matchup, but they've been worse on the defensive side of things this season than in the past.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.83 DK - 32.39
Like I mentioned in the Elfrid Payton write up, it is a bit of a dice roll to put any faith in the Magic front court but I do see Ibaka as a tournament play for sure. He was a big play on FanDuel in the Magic opener where he took the second most shots on the team (6-17) but then he suffered the blowout against the Pistons. I think the truth is more like we saw against the Cavs where he went 19/7/1 on twelve shots. That's a touch high on the scoring but it's clear he's part of the Magic offensive plan when things are going okay. Biyombo's return does shave off some of his minutes only because the Magic will go double big from time to time. But I think Ibaka's a fine floor guy in a nice matchup against the Sixers.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.24 DK - 28.84
I'll admit this one is a little speculative. But here's the thing, the Blazers are basically the same team as last year (added Evan Turner but that's about it) and we saw what they wanted to do against the Warriors in that playoff series. Aminu played huge minutes there as Portland needed to go small a lot more often. Is it a perfect comp? No. But Aminu's minutes are often hard to gauge though if there was a matchup he ticks up and over 30 this is it. He doesn't see crazy usage on a team with guys like Lillard and CJ, but the price keeps that in mind. If we are looking for tiny edges in DFS I think this is one of them. The game hasa crazy total and with Portland at home it doesn't project to get completely out of hand (GSW -5).
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.31 DK - 37.37
After busting it out of the box hard in a overtime against Dallas in the first game, Turner came back down to Earth some. The first affair through some folks off considering he got five extra minutes of run. But he's more a 30-32/ min per game guy for this Pacer squad. Playing the five now with Thad Young in the mix (and Ian Mahinmi gone) Turner's been able to up his per minute rebounding since the rookie campaign. That's a great sign in this new role and he's finding his shot even on the court with a bunch of other heavy usage guys. The Lakers under Luke Walton are still a quick team with defensive issues. I like Myles coming in the mid tier considering there are some cheaper options at other positions and center's tough on this slate.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 23.49 DK - 24.46
FanDuel only and it's risky. We basically know we are capping out on 22-23 minutes with Embiid but his price is so low on FD that I almost think you can take the risk. We know there's no Jahlil Okafor tonight and Noel is still out. Embiid showed in game one that he's the real deal going 20/7 on 6-16 shooting in only 22 minutes. Vucevic isn't a great defensive center and that's likely where Joel sees all of his run. Again, it's risky because of the minutes restriction and a lot more can go wrong than right with that constraint. But man the $4500 is tempting considering his skill set.
Strongly consider Marc Gasol on DraftKings.
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View Comments
Did you inadvertently exclude cavs/Houston or did you think all these better plays? I would assume lebron against Rockets would be a solid play.
Lebron is a very solid play. Dfsr has him projected at 47 points, which i think that may evrn be a bit low considering houston's pace. he also shows up in 7 of the top ten line-ups on the optimizer.
Derek, that games not today.
It's at 6pm in Cleveland across from the World Series game. Also included in the fanduel 6pm main player pool.
It is today but not featured on DK.
Embiid Turner or Whiteside
My apologies, yes its in the earlier pool.
Lillard or Giannis DK GPP
Anyone know why the rockets / Cavs game isn't showing up in DraftKings?