Golden State Warriors' Draymond Green (23) reacts after scoring against the Houston Rockets during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA basketball playoff series Wednesday, April 27, 2016, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
If it isn't my first NBA article of the season! Let's be real, here. DFS is fine for other sports, but it really shines for the NBA. As of this writing we've cashed 10 of 10 slates for this NBA season, and I am sure I'll manage to jinx the entire operation by pointing that out. But hey - early season is the only time when you can bat 1.000. So you take your victories where you can.
Tonight we're back to an 8 game slate, and we actually have some lousy defenses and sweet big money plays. Let's do this thing.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 62.41 DK - 66.16
Westbrook's first game of the season is pretty much in line with what he did without Durant last season, which is to say that he's probably worth almost another full $1,000 on these prices. He's not going to be match-up proof up here in the stratosphere, but playing him against the hapless Suns feels like a total no-brainer. The Suns played the 4th fastest PACE in the league last year, and paired it with the league's 6th worst defensive efficiency. Bledsoe isn't a horrible defender necessarily, but trying to run the offense AND keep up with Russ should be too tall a task. 50/50, double-up, big tournament - it shouldn't matter. Westbrook will be hugely owned everywhere.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.6 DK - 30.72
Welcome to early season NBA! The Warriors were a pretty horrible match-up for opposing point guards last season, but Frazier's price is simply incorrect. He put up 15/11/5 with 2 steals is 37 minutes against the Nuggets, and he fouled out! The Pelicans just don't have anyone else that can competently dribble the ball down the court, and while this one is fairly likely to get out of hand, they really don't have a lot of other options. Point guards are at a much smaller risk in games where they are a heavy dog than, say, big men, because he'll need to have the ball in his hands regardless of how things progress. Frazier looks like an easy bet for 5x points per dollar almost no matter where the game script takes him, and only foul trouble should stand in the way of him putting up some numbers here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.46 DK - 32.27
Hill was a big winner for us in his first game of the season, and he seems to be a big upgrade from the poo-poo platter of losers the Jazz cycled through the role last year. And the crazy thing? His great game 1 performance could have been even better if his shot was falling. The big thing to note here is the incredible 18 shots he hoisted. While there are superstars who average more, Hill is still priced like the guy who didn't take 18 shots in a game all season last year. Leaving behind a few high usage guys like Monta Ellis and Paul George could wind up making a huge difference for Hill's season long usage this year. He averaged just 10 shots a game in 35 minutes a game last year, and improving that by 50% would be huge for his production. In a great match-up with the Lakers, Hill should be a great play in any format.
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.87 DK - 32.84
Another year, another season where we can play a bunch of dudes against the Lakers. LA and Houston looked like dueling matadors out there in their opener, and Hood is the type of player who makes sleepy defensive rotations pay. He lit up Portland for 26 points, and I feel confident that he can at least duplicate that performance against last year's most inefficient defensive team. The Lakers also ranked dead last in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards last year. Like Hill, Hood could see a dramatic price increase if this is how Utah wants to run the offense, and he should easily return value in what amounts to the best possible match-up.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.48 DK - 27.63
What to make of Wes Matthews' first game of the season? It's sort of hard to interpret. We don't want to get carried away based on one game's worth of performance, but you have to love the minutes and the shot volume. Yes, it was an overtime game, but given the generally slim pickings at shooting guard you'd be happy with the opportunity he had in regulation. It's not all roses, though. Last year was the worst shooting year of Matthews' career, and following that up with a 19% shooting performance in game one doesn't feel great. Still, the D'Antoni led Rockets seemed completely disinterested in playing defense against the Lakers, and the Mavericks are a much more professional offensive basketball team. I can't say I'll feel great about Wes until I see the shooting get back under control, but I think he'll be a solid option at these prices in elite match-ups like this one.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 34.95
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.3 DK - 25.39
The new-team guys. The case for Gordon is pretty straightforward. He's cheap, played lots of minutes, and was fine on this price in an admittedly great match-up with the Lakers in their opener. He's probably priced too cheaply if he's going to play that big a role in the Houston offense, and you're probably getting him at a 10% savings to where he'll end up. Oladipo is a more interesting guy to consider, to me. He was stone-cold awful against the 76ers, but he took a remarkable 16 shots in just 26 minutes out there. He's clearly not going to fill Kevin Durant's considerable shoes, but if he's going to be option B on offense, he'll occasionally put up some big totals. It's an excellent match-up with Phoenix, and if there's a time for him to turn it on, this would be it.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.16 DK - 27.74
Your new-look Jazz, y'all! Johnson, like those before him, benefits mostly from a phenomenal match-up here. But there's more to it than that. Hucking 16 shots (and making 12 of them!) in just 30 minutes is no joke, and I was frankly astounded to see him handily lead the Jazz in scoring in game 1. Here's the thing with these three Jazz guys - they're basically playing 3 on 5 on offense with Gobert and Diaw out there, and all three of their perimeter guys are competent enough shooters to spread things out for the others. Johnson showed plenty of signs of life for the Heat last season, and a strong shooting performance in game 1 has me very bullish for his chances to pay off these paltry prices in an even better match-up with the Lakers.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 43.34 DK - 45.93
The Warriors were blown out in embarrassing fashion in their opener against the Spurs, but you can't pin that on Kevin Durant. The newest arrival in the Golden State made it look easy in a very tough match-up, shooting 11 for 18 en route to a 50+ point fantasy performance while not turning the ball over a single time. Well, today he'll go from one of the very worst match-ups for small forwards to a great one - the Pelicans were the proud owners the league's 3rd worst defensive efficiency last season, and they simply don't have anyone that can hope to hang with KD around the perimeter. KD is still priced like he's going to lose significant usage on a stacked Warriors team, but with Thompson looking like the early odd-man out, Durant simply looks to cheap to pass up on.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 21.38 DK - 22.39
With Wade and Deng gone, it looks like we're finally going to see what Winslow can do on the offensive side of the ball. Winslow's 15 shots in game 1 were the highest in his career, and it was a welcome sign to see him play 5 more minutes than his 2015-2016 averages as well. The Heat clearly have bigger plans for him than just using him as a defensive stopper, and if he's going to continue to be priced like a defense-only guy, we'll keep cashing in on the bargain. Charlotte has a bunch of capable wing defenders, but there's no real reason to think that will eat into Winslow's shot total, and he's likely a value against any opponent at these prices with what looks like his new opportunity. I'll reserve the right to change my mind on Winslow going forward if his usage dips back down, but he should have a very solid floor at a shallow position.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 28.5 DK - 29.94
Now HERE is a mess of a position, but I actually think Serge is a decent position-topper. He shot terribly in their opener, but you have to love the increase in both minutes and shot per minute on last year's no-show. Ibaka is still priced like the guy who stood around doing nothing in the corner in Oklahoma City, and it seems clear that the Magic plan on utilizing the full range of his offensive game, such as it is. He falls squarely into the category of guys that will be more expensive when they don't run bad on increased opportunity, and he should be a high floor, high upside play even in a less than stellar match-up with the Pistons.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 30.41 DK - 31.63
Continuing with the theme of guys whose price doesn't reflect their current opportunity, enter Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas topped 30 minutes just 10 times last season, and going off for a career high 32 points in 35 minutes is a big... green flag here? What's the opposite of a red flag? It's a good sign, that's what it is. Sure, the Cavs are not really a great match-up on any given night - but Valanciunas' price could easily $7,000 in a week on the basis of his minutes uptick alone. In what should be a hotly contested game, I like Valanciunas for a very smooth 5x points per dollar performance here.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 35.92 DK - 37.89
Green was an absolute wild-man in the Dubs opener against the Spurs, and while that didn't translate into a W this time around, it was awesome to see him trying to avenge last year's unfortunate ending. You can believe he'll bring that same chip on his shoulder into a match-up with the always-future-MVP Anthony Davis, and I expect him to fill it up with some combination of boards, points, and steals. For all of Davis' ability to protect the rim from opposing drivers, the Pelicans ranked an awful 26th in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing power forwards last season, and I think a blowout is really the only thing standing between Green and a very solid fantasy total.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 45.49 DK - 46.76
Consider: Enes Kanter. It's always tough to go with a bench guy, but he was good off the bench last year and the minutes and usage continue to be there.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 31.16
The break-out center from opening night, Turner destroyed the normally tough Mavs front court for 30 and 16, and threw in 4 blocks and 2 steals for good measure. He got the benefit of overtime, sure, but also may have lost minutes due to foul trouble (we won't know until rotations shake out more thoroughly). And tonight he'll go from a tough match-up with the Mavs to a phenomenal one with Brooklyn, who allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing centers last season. We might be seeing the rise of a star, here, and daily fantasy basketball sites are notoriously slow to adapt to them. While Turner isn't exactly priced to move here, don't be shocked if you need to pay 10-15% more for him by the time Christmas rolls around. I'm a buyer at this opportunity level until he's priced at $8,000 or so, making him a terrific value here.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.63 DK - 26.75
Capela was routinely a great punt last season with Howard out, and with Howard gone for good, it looks like he'll be a solid fantasy play on relatively cheap prices. You don't love that he only got 26 minutes in a close game with the Lakers, but the 16 and 9 on 8 of 11 from the field is just fantastic. He'll have a much stiffer test with Bogut in this one, but his rebounding ability should give him a nice floor regardless. I'm really looking for Capela to slide into a 30+ minute role, which might never come with D'Antoni running things. If he does, though, the Rockets' new blistering pace could put him in position for some monster games.
Also considered: Roy Hibbert. Wild break-out game for him, but do you believe in the minutes AND the production? Our lineup optimizer liked him on DK at 22 minutes for game 1, and if you think he's topping 30 again, he might just be a must play.
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View Comments
What about Steph? He's about $3000 cheaper than Russ, and will easily throw up some shots? Granted, this new Warriors team is looking a little bit iffy with all the stars.
I like Gobert a lot tonight. Lakers miss a lot of shots and have crappy big men. I could see big numbers.
Loving Rodney Hood !!
Anyone else Kelly Tripucka goes off tonight?
yes i agree
I just want to start by saying that I usually think the advice in your articles is great but when I read the intro today that said you had cashed in 10 out of 10 slates I was surprised after last night. Some of the picks yesterday were rough.
Schroder less than 3x
Redick less than 3x
Korver less than 4x
Bazemore less than 2x
Aldridge less than 3x
Jordan less than 3x
Hopefully things return to normal tonight but I was thinking it might be a nice addition to the injury updates article each day to have a quick review of the night before, what hit, what didn't and thoughts on why. Thanks for all your work.
The picks articles and the actual optimal lineups aren't always the same when things are all said and done.