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Sheshan International Golf Club(West) - Shanghai, China
Par 72 - 7,261 Yards
I can't believe we are already two tournaments into the 2016/2017 season already. The CIMB Classic wrapped up on Sunday with Justin Thomas proving he is one of the best players in the world. He defended his title in the place where he captured his first PGA Tour last season and did it in style. He closed with an impressive final round 64 coming from four shots back to take the trophy. It wasn't all smooth sailing for Thomas as he ran into a wall on Saturday going Bogey, Double Bogey, Bogey on holes 10 through 12 but showed resilience but paring the 13th and finishing the back nine with five straight birdies to get back into contention. In two CIMB Classics Thomas has has now gone a whopping -49 under par. Can we place bets on next year yet?
If you missed the final round check out the highlights below courtesy of PGATour.com:
This week the PGA Tour travels North from Malaysia to Shanghai, China for the first World Golf Championship event of the season. Sheshan International Golf Club will host the HSBC Champions for the 7th time(was held at Missions Hills GC in 2012). It is a Par 72 that stretches 7,261 yards. I will be looking at Total Driving as both distance and accuracy are important. Two of the Par 5's are reachable in two by the entire field while the other two will be layup holes for most of the field besides the bombers. Accuracy will be important off the tee on the Par 4's with doglegs that require proper placement to have any chance at getting a green in regulation and birdie chance. On top of that I will be looking at Scrambling and Sand Save % a bit more this week as there are a ton of bunkers, especially around the green. As always I will be weighting Birdie or Better % and Bogey Avoidance as they both correlate closely with fantasy scoring.
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NFL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's). I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (2)
Vegas Odds (7/1)
Draftkings ($11,900)
FantasyAces ($6,000)
Coming off his best season as a professional where he picked up three wins including his first major championship at the US Open. He couldn't quite finish off the TOUR Championship with a final round 73 but did win the Player of the Year and was a part of the winning US Ryder Cup team. There are two options at the top this week and both DJ and McIlroy make excellent plays ranking 1/2 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and both ranked near the top in Total Driving last season. I side with DJ as I think his ownership will come a bit lower but I don't blame you if you got the other way as I think both could frequent the leaderboard on Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (10)
Vegas Odds (19/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FantasyAces ($5,700)
I have gone back and forth since salaries were released on a projected ownership for Matsuyama and I will most likely change my mind six to eight more times. As of now I think he will be relatively low owned due to the 25%+ that McIlroy and DJ will likely carry this week. Those who follow tournament/course history closely will likely fade him as he has withdrew from this event here at Sheshan two out of the last three tips and finished T43 in the one he finished. If his ownership falls below that 20% mark I think it is well worth going overweight this week as he comes in with tremendous form. He shot under 70 in all four rounds in last weeks CIMB Classic after a nice 5th place finish at the TOUR Championship. With last weeks finish he became the first Japanese born player in 18 years to crack the World Top 10. Look for the momentum to continue.
Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (7)
Vegas Odds (34/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FantasyAces ($5,550)
There is a lot to like about Patrick Reed here at the seasons first WGC event. It is a much stronger field this week but the #7 ranked player in the World seen his salary drop over $2K and comes in 9th in salary on DraftKings. There is also a very good chance he will be low owned due to recency bias coming off a disappointing 54th place finish last week. Don't worry though, he always seems to get up for this strong field events. Don't believe me? Check this out:
I realize this isn't the Ryder Cup. I really just wanted a reason to watch that video 83 more times. From a PTS/$ perspective and salary savings , Reed is my top GPP play this week.
Also Consider - Sergio Garcia
Russell Knox
World Golf Ranking (20)
Vegas Odds (41)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FantasyAces ($4,950)
He broke through with his first career PGA Tour win last season right here at the HSBC Champions and this week has a feel much similar to the Justin Thomas narrative last week. He won last year by finishing inside the Top 10 in Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation and Putting Average. The putter may have been a bit fluky as he ended up ranking 107th in SG: P and 145th in Putting Average last season but rest assured he is an elite accuracy player and fits the course. He ranked 9th in GIR and 11th in Proximity last season including 17th in Proximity from 200+ and 22nd in Par 3 Scoring. Why is that important? All four Par 3's exceed 200 yards this week. Lock him in for at least another Top 10 and at a mid $8K price that makes him an elite play. in any format.
Bernd Wiesberger
World Golf Ranking (47)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FantasyAces ($5,000)
Due to the large number of European Tour and Asian Tour players this week I made second spreadsheet compiled of just raw stats to get a better scope of how these players rank among the PGA's best. Wiesberger is one of the players that stood out to me as he ranked 7th overall in model this week. Of all the players in the field he ranked 33rd in Driving Distance and 37th in Accuracy while sitting 3rd in Greens in Regulation. Now I understand they play different courses but getting a golfer who hit close to 75% of greens in 2016 is never a bad thing. He is coming in with some nice form as well finishing 7th or better in his last four Euro Tour events. Some people might see his missed cuts in the majors last season and shy away but I won't one of them. I don't think he is safe for cash but an excellent high upside GPP play. He finished 35th here last year and 8th back in the '13/'14 season.
Andrew Johnston
World Golf Ranking (83)
Vegas Odds (126/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FantasyAces ($4,250)
Beeeeeef! If he fails to entertain you I am sorry, you are just a fun hater. LOL. He is nowhere near safe for cash games but has sneaky upside and could grab a Top 20 or better this week. His form isn't the greatest coming off a T28 and T63 his last two tournies but have a strong 3rd place finish at the European Masters back in September. Looking at the raw stats on my cheatsheet he ranked 27th in Drivin Distance and 13th in Accuracy while ranking 7th in GIR.
Also Consider - Richard Bland
Joost Luiten
World Golf Ranking (65)
Vegas Odds (101/1)
Draftkings ($6,400)
FantasyAces ($4,000)
Another Euro Tour player in my picks this week who hits in a lot of areas this week, ultimately ranking 22nd on my Raw Stats model sheet. He has average distance off the tee(288 yards) but with an average accuracy of 64% he ranks 15th in that category. He is also elite when looking at GIR as he hit nearly 75% in 2016. He played here two years ago and finished 28th and I could easily see a similar result or better this week. He picked up a huge win at the KLM Open in mid September but has faltered since with three straight finishes outside the Top 35. Look for a big rebound this week at very low ownership.
Also Consider - Jhonattan Vegas
Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for The WGC HSBC Champions? Chris has his targets and cheatsheet for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces. Fill out the form below or Purchase Through PayPal.
WGC HSBC Champions
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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