Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
After a short slate on Tuesday we really get things going on Wednesday with ten games and bunch of DFS goodness. We've got a Durant-less Russ, Harden with an uptempo coach and some interesting point guard plays. Let's dive into Wednesday NBA.
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Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 55.37 DK - 58.99
The only question you have with Westbrook this season is how much you're willing to pay for the dude. The sites put you to the test right from the jump with crazy $12K and $11.5K respectively. And it just might be worth it. With Durant exiting stage G-Dubs, the entirety of the offense falls on Westbrook's shoulders and we've seen what happens from a fantasy perspective when he's without Durant. He was the highest usage player in the league without Durant and contributed in every facet of the game, going balls to the wall on seemingly every possession. He's likely to be the highest projected player for every slate he plays this season.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.96 DK - 35.95
With Darren Collison suspended to start the year the Kings really don't have anything in the way of point guards after Lawson. He could see close to 40 minutes here as Sacramento lacks much in the way of ballhandlers throughout the the rest of the squad. Lawson's coming off a lost season with the Rockets (and the Pacers) though he'll have a chance to rebound some with the Kings. This is the exact kind of situation we are looking for in DFS. It's a player with a dramatically increased opportunity without the price bump along side it. If you think Lawson plays 35 minutes (which feels low) he's still a fantastic value and should be a cash game staple tonight. He gets the added bonus of facing a fast-paced and defensively challenged Suns' team that looks an awful lot like the mess from last season.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.17 DK - 31.26
It's pretty close between Frazier and Lawson for me and they are coming around the same price. Jrue Holiday is on leave from the team and Frazier will man the point with the first unit. I'd put him behind Lawson only because the Pelicans do have Langston Galloway and a couple of other ballhandlers behind Frazier. But Frazier did log minutes at the one last season and can contribute through scoring, assists and even the rebounds come nicely for a point guard. The Pelicans are slight favorites against a moderate mess of a Nuggets team and Frazier fits solidly in that middle tier of value.
Consider Jeff Teague in a new situation with the Pacers and TJ McConnell who's in a similar situation to Lawson and Frazier with Bayless out.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 52.95 DK - 56.14
Harden is the best player on the team with the highest projected total today (115 points!) and is coming a bit less than Westbrook at a much thinner position. Harden tore up the preseason in Mike D'Antoni's offense and he'll be the primary ball-handler with Patrick Beverley injured. It would be nice to play both Harden and Westbrook because their floors are about as high as you'll ever get in this price range. Harden has no issue just chucking and getting to the line and the Lakers are coming off a season in which they were the worst team in defensive efficiency in the league. That plus the idea of a high tempo D'Antoni offense and you have a ton of projected points here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.2 DK - 29.48
He's going to start at the two and much of the reasoning behind Harden applies to Gordon with the expected pace of the game and overall volume of scoring. Obviously Gordon and Harden aren't created equally (they aren't priced in the same hemisphere either). There aren't a lot of other guard types with track records for the Rockets which could lead the Harden and Gordon pushing up against 40 minutes each. Gordon needs to knock down the three to hit value and he should have ample opportunity to do so.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.04 DK - 28.97
On FanDuel, I think it's a perfectly viable strategy to try and start three (or maybe even four) Rockets on this slate. I won't go through all the reasons again (mostly because I'm going to again in power forward) but Ariza is another high volume guy who should be out in the open floor with this team. I like the FD price much more though the chance at threes for DK is on my radar as well. Small forward is about the worst position on this slate and I don't want to go spending up for guys like Paul George in a mediocre matchup.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.05 DK - 28.26
This one is for sure speculative as the Nets project to be just an atrocious squad this season. Just running down their roster is a crime against humanity, but they still have to field 240 minutes worth of plays and Hollis-Jefferson does appear locked into the starting two guard. That plus Randy Foye is sitting the opener leaving even more room for minutes for RHJ. He'll rebound some for a two though he's not much of a scorer all things considered. This one is mostly about the possible minutes and the price. I don't want to spend anything for small forwards today and I am just looking for a little production on the cheap.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 24 DK - 25.5
Jared Sullinger is out to start the season which could mean pusing Carroll to more small ball four lineups for the Raptors. He's healthy to start the season and Toronto may have to go with smaller lineups seeing as how they lack much in the way of big bodies. The biggest question though stems from Carroll's minutes. They were managed because of injuries last season but this is a guy who's shot 40% from three over the last two seasons and does get after it on the defensive end.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 51.27 DK - 52.59
Another season and another campaign of playing Brow Roulette with your lineups. Anyone with any experience in DFS knows this story. Dude has been made of glass and has cost folks countless dollars with him mid-game injuries. He's been injured in every conceivable way it seems and we all have a little PTSD with the guy. But it's also the reason his price isn't in the same tier as guys like Westbrook and Harden even though he has ridiculous fantasy upside. Of the big money guys he's the first one to go today mostly because of the uncertainty. But it's a tough fade because of how he can pile on points. The Denver front court isn't a defensive unit and allowed worse than average fantasy production to opposing fours last season.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.85 DK - 34.44
I'm happy to mostly take a stars and quasi-scrubs approach to lineups tonight because the value is definitely concentrated at the top end of the pay scale. But guys like Randle do help round some things out. His minutes were jostled around a fair amount last season but the Lakers are a new squad this year without Kobe and with Luke Walton running the show. I think you'll see Randle's run stabilize and this is the perfect matchup to start things off. The game has the highest over on the day (223) and should be a track meet. That is fine with Randle's style and he can get out in the open court. The Rockets didn't get better on defense now playing Ryan Anderson at the four and Capela at the five. Randle is in a plus matchup and could be a double-double dude this season.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.57 DK - 30.61
There's a reason you are seeing a lot of Rockets on this list today. They are a new look team that will play an up and down style and they have a ton of projected points going up on the board. Anderson's no longer a sixth man but will instead operate at the four for the Rockets and could benefit from a drive and kick Harden on offense. It stands to reason you see his rebounding increase some this season as he's asked to possibly play a little more inside and just the volume alone should boost his stat line in that regard. There's the question of how many looks he gets playing on the court with Harden, but I think the pace makes up for some of that.
Consider Patrick Patterson on the cheap if he's starting for Toronto. Enes Kanter is also interesting coming off the bench if he's rotating into both the four and the five for the Thunder
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.11 DK - 35.65
In the past, the biggest issue for guys like Nurkic (or really any Denver big) was trusting the minutes and rotations. This is historically one of the most fickle situations and only with widespread injuries on the squad could we trust Nuggets' run from the four and five. That might change some this season. Denver will have to go super small to play anyone else at the five and Nurkic has shed some weight in the off season. He's always been a per minute beast on the boards and last season averaged an 8/6 in only 17 minutes per game. That could translate to big time rewards here if he's playing solid minutes in the mid to high 20's. The Pelicans aren't a good defensive team on the interior and Nurkic is coming cheap.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.63 DK - 50.3
Honestly, center is kind of a mess after Nurkic who isn't even the safest guy in the whole world. That tells you all you need to know about the position. Of the high-priced guys I like Boogie the least though he makes an interesting GPP play if you want to fade either Russ or Harden. Davis likely fits the GPP mold as well but Boogie has as much upside as anyone in this price tier. Cousins had some injury (and tanking) issues last season but when he played he averaged a 27/12/3. You won't see much better than that and this game should go at a fast pace.
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View Comments
In my opinion, you have to use Westbrook and Harden tonight. I think you guys nailed that. There is enough value elsewhere. I also like Clint Capela and Joel Embiid at center. I'm just excited for tonight.
How about if you can get West, Harden, and Davis in the same lineup?
Should I avoid Gordon, Harden, Ariza, and Anderson in the same lineup?
I did a line up with Westbrook, Harden and Davis but switched Davis for PG-13.
Added a Westbrook, Harden, Davis lineup. I think that's the way to go (three superstars). There is a ton of value everywhere else.
watch me be wrong but I disagree that you HAVE to go Westbrook. Obviously Harden will be a must play and chalk but his salary is slightly more palatable and he projects to put up similar stats. With this being said there is a ton of value and I have myself doing Harden, Davis, and Cousins. Westbrook at $12k is just too much IMO unless you can guarantee me his floor is 50 pts.
Do whatever you want, but I'm a Sixers fan and watch them all the time. We don't have anyone that can guard him (except maybe Embiid and that's not happening). Our defense is also terrible. Can you put together a different type of line up? Sure. I just can't see him not going for 60 or more points.
Any thoughts on this Lineup for tonight
PG Terry Rozier
SG James Harden
SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
PF JaMychal Green
C Marc Gasol
G Ish Smith
F DeMarcus Cousins
U Julius Randle
His floor is probably higher than 50 points, I'm sure he will triple double. There is no way I fade Westbrook tonight. Who else do they have?
Westbrook is expensive are you sure he's a must start?
My Lineup
PG D'Angelo Russell
PG Tim Frazier
SG Eric Gordon (Switched from D Booker 2 Mins before)
SG James Harden
SF Robert Covington
SF Trevor Ariza
PF Anthony Davis
PF Serge Ibaka
C Jusuf Nurkic