Welcome back for another night of daily fantasy hockey. We are now almost two weeks into the new season and some clear trends are starting to take shape. Avoid playing your offense against the Montreal Canadiens. They lead the league in both goals for and against per game for a league best +13 goal differential. The Capitals and Devils may not have the same offensive output as the Habs but both teams are also allowing under two goals per game. The biggest surprise of the early season is the 5-1 Edmonton Oilers who are tied with the Habs with the top offensive scoring 3.83 goals per game and have won four of their five by two or more.
Tonight we have a big 11 game slate with just two the Philadelphia Flyers and Calgary Flames playing on back to back nights. Let's take a look at some top plays from the projection system.
Hockey is back and with it come our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 12.87 DK - 3.22
Like almost every night in DFS hockey I will be paying up for my goalie in cash games. The good news is that my top goalie tonight comes at a bit of a bargain, at least on DraftKings as the 3rd in salary. The Devils are -165 home favorites to the Arizona Coyotes who won their season opener but have since lost four straight. They are in the midst of a grueling six game road trip and so far have been outscored 18-10. Schneider comes with a terrific win potential and has a nice floor as he has been facing 30+ shots per game through five starts. Lock him in all formats tonight.
Opponent - CGY
Proj Pts FD - 14.59 DK - 3.65
When looking for value at goalie I always look for backups getting the start for good teams. This is the case tonight as the Blues will put Hutton between the pipes for his second start of the season. He was impressive in his first start stopping 33 of the 35 shots he faced against the Rangers to pick up the win. He gets a much easier test tonight against the Flames and it shows as Vegas has the Blues as the biggest favorites(-225) on the slate. HE receives the biggest discount on FanDuel where he is safe in all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Petr Mrazek (DET)
Opponent - CGY
Proj Pts FD - 11.77 DK - 3.71
Looking at the center position Jaden Schwartz shows up as a top play as he has the highest PTS/$ projection of anyone with a salary north of $5K tonight. He returned from an elbow injury two games ago and the coaching staff ramped up his ice time right away as he has gone an average of 18 minutes per game. He picked up his first point last game vs. the Flames and comes with big upside with sniper Vladimir Tarasenko on his wing. He is safe in all formats.
Stack With: Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron
Opponent - CAR
Proj Pts FD - 10.76 DK - 3.29
The Red Wings have been experimenting with line combinations since the start of the season, trying to find some combos that work without superstar Pavel Datsyuk on the team. Nielsen spent last game in between Dylan Larkin and Gustav Nyquist which end up sticking and come with some offensive upside as all three players finished last season with 43 or more points. Nielsen has also spent time on the top powerplay unit with Henrik Zetterberg further solidifying his large role on the team. He doesn't have the shot volume I would like for cash games but the opportunity is most definitely there to mark him as a top GPP play tonight.
Stack with: Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 9.61 DK - 2.96
After a '14/'15 season where he recorded a career high 72 points, Johnson seen some regression last season as he recorded just 38 points in 69 games for the Bolts. He has started off this season slow with just two points in five games but will get a great opportunity to add to those totals tonight vs. an inept Maple Leafs defense who is allowing over 3.5 goals per game. The Bolts have also been shuffling lines as Johnson and Stamkos switched lines last game with Johnson playing with Palat and Drouin. Look for the Bolts to get their offense going tonight.
Stack with: Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin
Opponent - SJ
Proj Pts FD - 13.19 DK - 4.21
Perry is top play tonight who comes at a discount on both sites. The mathcup isn't the best as the Ducks visit the Sharks in San Jose but he comes with a high floor sitting around 15 shot attempts per 60 minutes. He also provides multi point upside and has recorded 5+ DraftKings and 18+ FanDuel points in four of his six games so far this season. He is safe in all formats.
Stack with: Ryan Getzlaf, Nick Ritchie
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 13.15 DK - 4.03
You are going to be seeing a ton of Mike Hoffman in my picks this season. You are probably wondering why after he has gone scoreless in four of his first five games. If you are a baseball guy you will understand this analogy well. In baseball there are some things to indicate whether a player will have positive or negative regression. For batters we look at BABIP to see if they have been getting unlucky or lucky which is usually a great indicator of future average. For me in fantasy hockey it comes down to Corsi(shots on net+shots that miss the net+blocked shots). This gives us a clearer look at players that are more aggressive and fire the puck more so while Hoffman has no goals and just three assists he leads the league in Individual Corsi per 60(29.26). To put this into perspective Alex Ovechkin led the league last season with 29.1 iCorsi per 60 and finished the year with 50+ goals. While I don't expect Hoffman to ever reach that point it is a good sign that there may an offensive outburst on the horizon.That was long winded. You can tell I was laying in bed for two hours last night thinking about this one.
Stack with: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 8.05 DK - 2.4
Dipping down into the lower tier for some value we find another Lightning player. After being moved to a line with Stamkos last game he recorded his first points of the season with a goal and an assist on just over 15 minutes of ice time. If he is back on the top line again tonight he is one of the top punt plays on both sites with a price under $4K in a matchup vs. the Leafs.
Stack with: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn
Opponent - ANA
Proj Pts FD - 15.58 DK - 5.07
Both elite D men are in action tonight but it is Burns who tops the projections. I could see Karlsson being a viable play, especially on FanDuel where the gap between the two is $900 but on DraftKings it is clearly Burns tonight. He is just $300 more and averaging over a full fantasy point per game more. He has already recorded nine points in just six games played so the upside in undeniable and the floor is also very high as he is averaging close to five shots on goal and two blocks per game.
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 7.75 DK - 2.34
If you followed my picks last year you most likely realized I am a huge Flyers fan. I try not to let that bias affect my decision making in fantasy and believe I have done a pretty good job of that. I absolutely loved Gostisbehere last year in his rookie season and pleaded you got exposure to him early before he reached an elite price. This season it's rookie Ivan Provorov who is all the rage in Flyers circles. He hopes to make a similar impact as Ghost and is touted as being a complete player. While the shot totals aren't quite there yet he is offering a high floor averaging two blocks per game. His price is near punt value but won't be for long. Take advantage.
Also Consider: Morgan Reilly (TOR)
Hockey is back and with it come our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get accessto our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
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