Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
Welcome back everyone. What else can I say but welcome back. I don't know about you, but I've been jones-ing for NBA every since Lebron stuck that ball against the glass in Game 7 and the Cavs took the 'ship. And it's been a crazy off-season in between with KD heading out to the Bay Area to make the super-est of teams and some other movement that lends itself to DFS considerations.
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Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 40.32 DK - 44.2
The Warriors open the season as "The Team" with the off season acquisition of one Mr. Kevin Durant. There's no doubt they're a powerhouse and barring some kind of injury to the key 4, could make a run at the all-time wins record. Curry is still the man here and running the point allows him the chance to continue fantasy dominance considering he'll still have first crack at the usage. But as we saw last season, the DFS implications for the Warriors stem from them just boat-racing teams on an night in, night out basis. Curry averaged under 33 minutes per game last season, about the lowest you'll see from any superstar mostly because G-Dubs just didn't need him in the fourth quarter. They open the season as a -9 favorites over the freaking Spurs which points a lot to how we'll see the Vegas lines for them when they play crap teams. Curry still has a great floor and if San Antonio can keep it close should pay off at least his FD price. But the blowout always looms large.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.67 DK - 35.99
Speaking of potential blowouts, that's kind of the theme for the first short slate NBA night of the season. Every game is currently -6.5 or more with the Cavs as double digit favorites against the revamped (but still probably crappy) Knicks. Kyrie, more than most other point guards, relies a ton on scoring to get his fantasy production. That can make fore some volatile performances as he doesn't raise his floor through dishing or rebounding. He averaged 20 per game last season and 5 assists though he ran into some Curry-like minutes issues. He'll square up against Derrick Rose who's not a good defender evidenced in some part by Chicago allowing more points and assists than league average to opposing PGs last season. Irving is in a good spot here, but again the blowout concerns are real.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.5 DK - 29.68
How exactly Rose fits in with his new team remains to be seen. There are a lot of question marks with the Knicks and it's tough to see this season working out for them in any kind of positive way. Sure Rose is a name, but he's long removed from those MVP days and now is a ball-centric PG who really can't shoot. But the price reflects the uncertainty and we could (emphasis on the "could") see him hit value on these salaries. Irving isn't a good defender and if Rose isn't inclined to give it up to Melo and get out of the way then we could get some fantasy production if the minutes aren't capped.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 29.23 DK - 31.54
I'm more inclined to play him on DraftKings where I get a little more flexibility considering his PG/SG status. The Jazz aren't a great DFS matchup by any stretch of the imagination but considering this is a short slate the shooting guard position is the thinnest of them all. I don't want to spend where I don't have to, but I also want a solid floor in minutes. McCollum meets just about in the middle of those two issues. He isn't overwhelmingly cap prohibitive and averaged minutes in the mid 30's last season. He does take over PG duties when Lillard is off the court but does need to get the three point shooting going to bust it out of the box. He's a volume shooter and not much else, but having him control some of his own fate at the one does place him into cash game consideration even against a slower Jazz squad.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.4 DK - 30.35
When Gordon Hayward was off the court last season Hood saw a massive bump in usage (from about 18 to somewhere in the 24 range per NBAwowy). Hayward is shelved to start the year which should open up more shots throughout the starting five. That being said, this is a very different Jazz squad. George Hill takes over the point guard duties, an upgrade for sure but uncertainty in exactly how the offense will run. There's also Joe Johnson slotting into the three and some question marks about Favors. This is all to say, I think Hood is a solid high floor guy especially if he can fire from three but am hesitant because we don't have solid samples on this rotation. The Jazz are dogs to the Blazers in this one, but Hood strikes me as a solid cash play.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 19.93 DK - 21.11
Lee was often forced into huge minutes last season with the Hornets because of his versatility. He isn't much of a scorer and really only got his way to value when he was coming cheap and gobbling up loads of run. He should be taking over the Afflalo role on this Knicks team and if you think he gets up and over thirty minutes then he's a value at these prices. Because shooting guard is so weak I'm fine basically punting it here with a guy like Lee who could see a few more three point looks in this offense.
Consider Jonathon Simmons if he actually gets the start at the two for Danny Green.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 38.19 DK - 39.63
Defensively, the Spurs are going to need everything they can get from Kawhi in this one and it likely still won't be enough. He should be able to log heavy minutes right out of the gate and last season did average around 34 minutes per game and a 19/8/3 against the Warriors in four meetings. It's mostly the minutes I'm looking at there as the the actual line is too small a sample size to make any real judgments. We want to target Kawhi in games where he'll see the run as well as high paced teams like the Warriors. Assuming we can't fade the blowouts on such a small slate it's best to just shoot value and Kawhi's pricing is advantageous considering how many ways he can accumulate fantasy points.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 43.43 DK - 45.38
There's this up and coming guy I want to turn you on to. Not many people know about him yet, but they will. Physically, he's basically the prototype of what you'd put into a basketball player 3d printer and from a b-ball IQ piece he's basically coming in at machine learning. Haven't heard of him yet? Don't worry, you will. Anyway, it's Lebron and I don't really know what else to say here out of the tongue-in-cheek variety. The only question you ask yourself with guys like Lebron (or Russ, or Harden, etc) is whether the price is worth it. Tonight it's close because of the potential blowout. But with just a little bit of savings elsewhere you should be about to fit him in.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 23.72 DK - 25.13
This is assuming he draws the start for the injured Gordon Hayward and sees a majority of the Jazz small forward minutes. Johnson is a pain to actually watch play and can turn into something of a ball-stopper on offense. But at least on DraftKings he's coming very cheap and helps fit in some of the superstars further up the salary chain. He fits into multiple positions there which helps his case and I can see him on the chalkier side because of the price and opportunity.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.34 DK - 35.93
Another season of the NBA and another season of power forward being an awfully thin fantasy position. It makes sense in a lot of ways. Many teams have even gone smaller playing a stretch four (who sometimes doesn't even qualify for the position on FanDuel) and those ground and pound dudes don't have the same kind of fantasy upside. It's more of a hybrid position now, unlike what we've seen in the past and the fantasy value gets mitigated some. Love does fit the stretch four category, but he's definitely the third option on offense which can be a problem at his prices. But with the soft opening night salaries his price is much lower than we saw it at the end of the season, especially on FanDuel. I'm fine just running him out there on the three point upside with the possibility he gets on the boards some as well.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.94 DK - 38.76
The biggest question for LA is how Pau Gasol effects his fantasy production. This is one of the bigger question marks for the Spurs from a fantasy perspective. They've eschewed the small ball schematic prevalent throughout the league and decided to go a bit all in on big men. I trust Pop so I don't want to poo-poo the idea, but it is definitely divergent. Aldridge isn't cost prohibitive (no one is on this slate really) so there's plenty of reason to get him in there at a weaker position without many secondary options. But there's significant volatility with this play.
Strongly consider Trey Lyles if Derrick Favors sits and dude is probably a must play in cash at his prices
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 38.42 DK - 39.6
Center is pretty tough on this opening slate mostly because it's hard to trust the minutes from many of the big men. And it isn't like Gasol is the safest guy in the world. We are making certain assumptions about his role with the Spurs but we won't really know how Pop's going to function this offense until we get some games under our belt. There's some blowout concern as well. But that's the case with all of the games. Gasol enters a totally new situation with the Spurs though many parts of his game are tailored to what this team does on offense. He'll slot into Tim Duncan's role and should see plenty of rebounding and scoring opportunities.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.41 DK - 33.17
I don't think you can trust someone like Noah on this slate and really after Gasol and Gobert the pickings get extremely thin. Gobert's minutes are rather established and his defensive prowess is well regarded. Gobert's major issue is he just doesn't score. He averaged only nine points per game in more than 30 minutes last season. That's a very low number and you basically need to count on the rebounds and blocks on his way to value. This is a guy who took about one shot every five minutes for the Jazz last season. So yeah, the scoring isn't going to be there. The Stifle Tower is a D-first dude and that isn't likely to change. But he should be out there enough to at least cover the glass and keep the floor higher.
Consider the aforementioned Joakim Noah if you think the minutes are there.
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View Comments
Did you start the season by calling the spurs a crap team and then follow that by suggestioning half the team? This is gonna be fun season for sure
He's saying the spurs are good so at a 9point dog, imagine what line a crap team will have against GS.
You misread. I didn't call the Spurs crap. I said imagine what crappy teams spreads will be against the Warriors.
I totally disagree on the Knicks Phil Jackson is a smart man don't be surprised to see the Knicks at the top of the food chain this year and you know I'm a personal friend of rose I've seen him in action this year during the off season and my boy is back know that
I have a feeling they are a total trainwreck. Just a million injuries waiting to happen.
Start Jennings over Rose, buddy
I thought about Jennings. That's a weird projection t give. I think Jennings should probably be playing over Rose in real NBA, but the Knicks won't run that way.
Ahhh.... Dfsr and basketball.... it seems all is right in the world...
Hey doug thanks for the write up, any recommended tourney plays tonight?
Please tell me these guys are better at NBA than baseball. I know the game of baseball but could use some advice in basketball until I figure it out. During the baseball season, I was wondering how this site existed as the advice was often laughable.
Thanks for reading!
I didn't do badly at baseball, finished 2nd in a tourney, won a few 20 person leagues, if you know things, add some advice, go based on current trends, you can do well, especially 50/50 type playing.
who will give me a starting lineup for a tourny that i can tweek a little?
kyrie
mccollum
kawhi
lebron
aldridge
joe johnson
lyles
lee
thoughts?
what about KRISTAPS PORZINGIS, it seems he could have a decent night against Thompson and Love
The issue with Zinger, in my mind is he's playing now with at least two guys on offense who aren't inclined to pass much in Melo and now Rose.
I personally prefer Porzingis > Love...
What do you all think of Mason Plumlee?
Plumlee has a terrible matchup against Gobert
Gobert is too tough of a matchup for Plumlee in my opinion