After a wild week 6, we're ready to dive in to our week 7 picks. Will week 7 be the week that the NFL returns to sanity, or will this week feature its own set of Jay Ajayis and Golden Tates? Frankly, we have no idea. And don't trust anyone who says that they do. What we do have, though, are the numbers generated by our long-tested and industry-wide respected statistical modeling system. So hopefully that will do for now. Let's dive in.
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Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 22.08 DK - 22.95
Brady is fully back up to his old ones, putting up an average of 391 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first two games since returning from suspension. He's reunited with Rob Gronkowski, created unlikely heroes like James White and Martellus Bennet, and completed a ridiculous 76% of his passes so far. Now some of that is likely destined for a little regression. Basically nobody completes 76% of his passes, and Brady has had the benefit of being able to play from ahead when teams are respecting the run a bit more. But it's not like that's especially likely to change in this one. With Roethlisberger questionable, the Steelers are going to have a tough time keeping up with the high-octane Patriots offense, and they should be able to build on what a much worse Miami team was able to do against the Steelers last week. If you're looking for expensive cash game options, Brady is almost assuredly the guy for you.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 19.88 DK - 20.63
Hey, they don't pay me the big bucks to sit around and talk about the chalk all the time, right? A lot of daily fantasy football players will sleep on Rivers coming into this week after an underwhelming performance against the Broncos, but we aren't. The Broncos have allowed the 5th fewest passing yards to opposing defenses this season, and Rivers' week 7 opponent, the Falcons, have allowed the 5th most. It's not especially encouraging that Rivers is dealing with a serious lack of offensive weapons, but another week of Gates getting healthy and the pseudo-emergence of Hunter Henry softens the lack of skill players at least to some degree. Rivers averaged 300+ yards passing and 2 touchdowns in the 3 games prior to the Denver embarrassment, and I suspect he'll be put in the position to do a lot of passing against a Falcons team that can absolutely put points on the board.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 19.07 DK - 20.19
This is probably more of a big tournament play, but there's a fair amount to be excited about here. The Raiders have been the stone cold worst team in the league against opposing passers this season. If you created a single quarterback out of all of the QBs that have faced the Raiders this season, they'd have put up an average of 313 yards and 2 touchdowns per game - roughly the 4th best fantasy quarterback of the season. And that's just combining the stats of all the random dudes they've faced. Now Bortles is something less than an elite quarterback, but you're getting a significant savings on a guy who has shown explosive potential in the past when playing from behind. The Raiders are still putting up lots of points, so look for Bortles to connect with the competent core of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and potentially put up a monster week on a very affordable salary.
A discussion of expensive quarterbacks
I took a long look at Matt Ryan and Drew Brees for this week for the "expensive QB" slot, and ultimately settled on Tom Brady. I'd like to explain some of the decision making process with you now. Let's start with Ryan. He's on pace to have the best year of his career, and has been reconnecting with old favorites like Julio Jones while finding new loves in Mohammed Sanu and Jacob Tamme. But is the production sustainable? He's now basically the same price as Tom Brady. Well, he's a 31 year old quarterback who is throwing for 50 more yards per game than he ever has on the back of 2 more yards per attempt than he's ever managed. A jump in production this dramatic with no real change in personnel looks like a bubble fit to burst. While I think Ryan will be good going forward, I think Brady should clearly have the higher baseline expectation, meaning Ryan will often be the odd man out at a position where we can only choose one player.
And then there's Drew Brees. He's another guy I like quite a bit for this (and really every) week, but I'm not as high on him going into this one. I actually think I'll end up rostering Brees a decent amount in the future, but in a tough match-up this week with Kansas City I'll likely pass. KC plays slow, and has allowed the 8th fewest passing yards this season. But the other numbers on Brees point to him just replicating his past results with less variance than we've seen in the past. His completion % and yards per attempt are basically in line with what we've come to expect, and I suspect he'll be in a handful of optimal lineups for ours in the future. Just not this week, on the road against a tough defense.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 20.19 DK - 23.0
If most running backs were in Bell's shoes this week, it'd be a pretty easy stay away. He's coming off an uncharacteristically bad week, his quarterback is out this week, and he's in a really tough spot against a team that will probably pound his team's collective face in. Happily for Bell, though, he's not most running backs. If we go back to 2015, we have a nice precedent for how the Steelers will likely approach this one. In the unlikely event that they are ahead in the game, Jones will probably touch the ball 12-15 times while Bell does the rest, a la the Cardinals game last season where Bell carried the ball 24 times. If the Pats get ahead, Jones will probably pass in the high 20s number of times - but the Steelers are very unlikely to trust him throwing deep. That means even more Bell out of the backfield and in the slot. It might not feel super to take a really expensive running back on a team that's unlikely to win, but all indicators are that this should be a solid week 7 play even against a slightly better than average NE run defense.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 18.3 DK - 20.42
Is it a good week to roll it back on DeMarco Murray? On DraftKings, I say yes. Murray has maintained his elite workload and red zone opportunity as the season has progressed, and while he didn't provide the big payoff we thought he would in last week's match-up, I think there's reasons for optimism here. The Colts have allowed an awful 4.8 yards per carry (5th worth in the NFL) this season, and the Titans are a -3.5 favorite here. Given Mariota's erratic play I think we see a lot of Murray in both the running and passing game, and believe he winds up topping 20+ fantasy points once again.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 14.81 DK - 16.11
Michael has slid into the definitive RB1 role in Seattle, and you're still paying something just below RB1 values. This makes Michael a solid, if unspectacular play from week to week. He looked terrific against Atlanta before having to be evaluated under the league's concussion protocol, but still wound up putting up a solid fantasy total on the back of his role as the clear goal line back. Arizona has a big defensive reputation, but they've been basically league average against the run this season. Vegas sees the Cardinals as slight favorites here, but it shouldn't be enough to seriously impact Michael's workload.
The budget RB debacle
I'm writing this on Tuesday, and as of now it's very unclear where the value will come from at running back this week, if anywhere. Paying up for 2 big name RBs frankly doesn't feel fantastic either, so keeping an eye out for value might be more important this week than during most. So I'll just bring up a few guys that bear monitoring as the week progresses.
Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles
Ware outcarried Charles 24-9 in an impressive dismantling of the Oakland Raiders, but how much of this was dictated by an unusual game script? It's not totally clear. The Chiefs could have been preserving the newly healthy Charles, or this could have been the plan all along. If Ware IS the lead guy for the time being he is a phenomenal play this week. Or you could get caught holding the bag if the carries come closer to the middle, which is absolutely in play. Keep an eye out for new from the KC coaching staff on this one.
Eddie Lacy, Knile Davis, and Lacy's health
We thought James Starks might get the start in week 6, and then he wound up not playing at all. Then Lacy went on to tie his biggest workload of the season. Now he didn't do a whole heck of a lot with it, so who knows how much this will matter. And he is banged up. And the Packers DID trade for Knile Davis, even if it is unlikely that Davis will be ready to suit up by Thursday. Still, Lacy is much cheaper than he would be if he were the definitive back, so it's another situation worth monitoring.
Who is the real Jay Ajayi?
We talked about this on Tuesday's podcast, but fantasy owners will have a real decision to make about Jay Ajayi this week. There were a lot of reasons why he shouldn't have had many carries against Pittsburgh, but then he went out and had the most rushing yards of any running back on the weekend. Arian Foster was an afterthought, and Kenyan Drake was nowhere to be seen. Will this be the Dolphins' plan going forward? It's certainly possible, though not especially likely. The Dolphins have a spotty track record of sticking with RB1s in the past (think Lamar Miller) and they paid Foster very well to be here. Still, Ajayi is pretty cheap and a viable Hail Mary for big tournaments.
Note: Check back later in the week for our Running Back Value column in which we break down some of the cheaper values on the slate.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 19.32 DK - 22.89
We're well known for beating the targets drum here at DFSR, so it'll likely be no surprise to you that we're fans of Mike Evans this week. He's tied for 3rd in the league in targets, and is 10% cheaper than most of the guys in the same group with him. There's a reason for this, of course. Evans converts targets to receptions at well below the league average - 50%, as opposed to the top 40 average of 63%. But that's because Evans is used very aggressively in his role as a big play guy. He's had double digit targets in every game this season, and has scored touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 contests. He's the whole Tampa Bay passing game, and he's up against a San Francisco team that has allowed the 5th most yards to opposing offenses. He may not feel safe enough for your cash game purposes, but the ceiling is high enough here given his overall target volume and red zone usage that I'll probably find myself taking a gamble here.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 14.09 DK - 16.83
Ahhh, sweet, sweet value. In an era where players are priced more and more appropriately, Meredith basically stands alone on the "clearly wrong and underpriced" pedestal. He followed up his break-out 12 target/130 yard and a touch performance with FIFTEEN targets for 113 yards in week 6. He's converted nearly 80% of his targets into receptions this season, and on a team desperate for some offensive consistency, he's a breath of fresh air. It's not the first time that a new quartberack has picked someone other than the previously acknowledged WR1 to be his main target, and as long as Meredith and Hoyer maintain this rapport he'll be basically a must play until his price climbs. The Packers have allowed the 5th most yards per passing attempt this season, and Meredith gets the full green light in all formats this weekend.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 17.37 DK - 20.81
Well he's become something of a DFSR favorite, but that's going to happen when a guy is chewing up his team's target share the way Cooper is. Cooper has always been a great deep threat, but the particularly encouraging thing we saw in week 6 was Oakland's willingness to use him for the shorter routes where the Raiders have normally prioritized getting the ball to Michael Crabtree. Cooper has received 25 targets in the last 2 weeks and turned those into 267 yards, so it's hard to imagine that Oakland will try and fix something that isn't broken. The Jaguars seem to be an improved defensive team this season, but Vegas likes this game as having the 3rd highest total of the week. If the Raiders are scoring points, there's a great chance that Cooper will be involved.
Opponent SD
Proj Points FD - 18.26 DK - 21.92
Julio Jones will be the definitive chalk wide receiver this week in the big money division. The SD/ATL game has the highest Vegas total by far, and the Falcons themselves have the highest implied total. As for Jones, he's had some transcendent performances this season thanks to an absurd (and likely unsustainable) 21.2 yards per catch. But there are some warning signs with Jones that are at least worth bringing up. First of all, he's been a pretty clear 14-16 yards per catch guy during his career, so it stands to reason that the 21.2 figure he's posted so far will regress to the mean as we go forward. Next, Jones' targets remain to be way down from last year's highs. He's averaged just 8.2 targets per game this season, and while he's had some huge fantasy games in his last 3 contests, he's really been something less than incredible. He's also just not a red zone guy - there are 6 Falcons with as many or more targets down there this season.
No look, he might still wind up being the best cash game play at wide receiver this week. There's something to be said for grabbing a guy who should have a high floor in a week where playing him means you're basically just playing against everyone else with a $9,200 salary. But something has to give here for Julio to be worth those prices - he's going to need to either get more targets, or sustain a hall-of-fame worthy 21+ yards per catch. The targets are your best bet, but it's quite a big investment to find out.
For the Thursday games: Play Randall Cobb, assuming this back thing is no big deal. He's had back to back weeks with 11 targets, and while Jordy Nelson has seen more red zone looks so far, Cobb has traditionally been heavily included down there as well. He's going to have a huge week at some point, and his price is fully 15-20% lower than it could be if he strings a few good weeks together.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 12.78 DK - 15.76
It feels like a million years ago that the "Gronk or Graham?" question was a real one, but Graham's performance in the last few games has people at least noticing him. He's averaged almost exactly 100 yards per game on 9 targets per game in his last 3, and he's been getting solid red zone looks as well. As good a player as Doug Baldwin is, he really isn't the short yardage target that Jimmy Graham is when healthy, and we could be seeing a changing of the guard here. I don't normally like paying up at tight end, but in a world where there's essentially no such thing as a routine 100 yards a game guy at tight end, Graham is one of our closest appropximations. You can get him at a discount to Gronk and Olsen (for now), and a strong match-up with the Cards could make him cash game worthy here.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 11.99 DK - 14.85
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 11.62 DK - 14.14
The thing that makes it hard to pay up at tight end? There's often very good value on a points per dollar basis that you often can't find at other positions. For week 7, Miller and Henry are the front-runners in the "cheap and solid" tight end category. The case for Henry is fairly well known by now - even with Gates returning, he caught 6 balls on 8 targets for 83 yards and a touch while out-snapping Gates by 13. It'll be a high-scoring game with Atlanta, and he should be a big part of San Diego's offense even if Gates' health continues to improve. Miller, meanwhile, is just a consistent 10+ fantasy points per game guy that gets a fair number of red zone looks and solid (in unspectacular) opportunity between the 20s as well. He's far less likely to have a huge game than Henry or Graham, but is very serviceable as the tortoise to their respective hares. I think he's the safest in the group, though he probably lacks the upside with the emergence of Cameron Meredith as a short-yardage target.
The New England Patriots vs. What's Left of the Steelers
The Pats appear to be priced like they are facing the Steelers, but this Pittsburgh team is just not even close to the same with Landry Jones under center. The Steelers will almost certainly be playing from behind, and while I believe they'll do their best to let Bell be featured on as many plays as possible, they will have to throw it around at some point. If they don't, they won't score enough points to catch up. And if they do, the Pats could be in for a big time turnover/sack performance. They are an interesting play in all formats.
The Denver Broncos vs. the Houston Texans
Brock Osweiler revenge game? Nah. The Texans have a laughable 16.5 implied total this week, and for good reasons. The Broncos have caused more interceptions than they have allowed passing touch downs, and have allowed the 5th fewest total yards in spite of playing a pretty tough schedule. The Texans, meanwhile, have thrown the 3rd most interceptions while also scoring the third fewest points per game. One of the league's best defenses meets one of the league's worst offenses, in what will surely amount to a bloodbath.
Football's here, baby!
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