Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy football with DFSR. Stacking continues to be the name of the game for tournaments and below I will go through my top four stacks for the week four. I will be using DFSR's Player Lab tool to help narrow down the options to help identify the not only the best stacks but some of the best values within the stacks. Let's dig in!
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Stack #1 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
QB - Ben Roethlisberger
Elite Options - Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell
Value Options - Jesse James, Sammie Coates(If starting)
If you listened to the Week 6 podcast where I joined Doug to talk Stacks, among other things, you know these filters above is where I start every week on the Player Lab. I have the "High Vegas O/U" set at 46, the "Poor Defense vs. Pass" set at 20 or worse and the "High Opp Allowed Pace" set at 67. This spit out just two quarterbacks this week. I think both will be chalky but I lean the Steelers as Cam is coming off a concussion and not been playing well and Kelvin Benjamin showed up on the Thursday injury report. The Steelers are a team I would consider doing a full team stack as they are projected to blow out the Dolphins and their 25th ranked defense vs. the pass. They have shown in the past they can get ahead with Big Ben and Antonio Brown soaking up the yards through the air with Le'Veon Bell getting a heavy workload in the second half and racking up the points. Jesse James makes a nice value play at the TE position. He has recorded a TD in three of his last four games and is coming off a season high eight targets. They will be chalky but that doesn't mean you have to go elsewhere. It just means you need to differentiate yourself with your other positions.
Stack #2 - Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
QB - Brock Osweiler
Elite Options - DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller
Value Options - Lamar Miller
This stack will go a bit under the radar as Brock Osweiler has been less than impressive so far in 2016. He has yet to record a 300 yard passing game or three touchdown game and has more interceptions(7) than total touchdowns(6). This could very well be the week as everything seems to be lined up perfectly. The game has the second highest total of the week(49) with a thin spread meaning the game should stay close enough for Brock to have to continue to chuck it up. He is projected for just over 38 attempts vs. a Colts team that ranks 26th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab tool. DeAndre Hopkins is the #1 option in the pass game but has been struggling to start the season with just one 100+ yard game which was also his only game with 10+ targets. With a price that keeps dropping combined with some recency bias he makes a great play on his own or together with Brock. Looking at the play Lab tool above I broke down "High Vegas O/U" with "High Yards/Reception" to get some deep threat home run plays. Four guys showed up but Will Fuller stands out above the rest. He has received the most targets per game(8), has a terrific matchup vs. the 26th ranked Defense vs. the Pass and comes at a discount from my second favorite option Snead. If you think the game is going to go over, the Texans are another team like the Steelers that you can add a RB into the mix. One of my favorite filters on the Player Lab tool for RB's is the Load% rating. It shows how much of the rushes a player gets for his team. Outside of Todd Gurley no RB on the Sunday slate has a higher number(75%) than Lamar Miller. He has also received 3+ targets in the passing game in each of the last three weeks.
Stack #3 - New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
QB - Drew Brees
Elite Options - Willie Snead
Value Options - Brandon Cooks, Michael Thomas
Finally we get to the highest projected total of the week with the Panthers/Saints game in Louisiana. I will address the elephant in the room before we move forward as you all probably think I am crazy listing Willie Snead as an elite play instead of Brandon Cooks. It feels like week one all over again. I am going out on a bit of a limb here but not really when you look at the overall scheme of things. First of all, he is the cheaper option on both sites making him a better value from a PTS/$ perspective. Next he has the better matchup of all three of the Saints wideouts. He plays primarily out of the slot and will most likely matchup against Roberto McLain, the Panthers lowest rated corner(per Pro Football Focus). That's not all. He is almost certain to be the lower owned option as well as he has been dealing with a toe injury but says he is back to about 95%. Sold? If not just play both or just Cooks. I just know I will be overweight on Snead this week. While on the defense before anyone even read the picks I almost forgot to mention Drew Brees. He is an elite play this week and is projected to throw the most passes(43.8) than any other QB on the slate. Let's the Saints come marching in.....to your bankroll.
Stack #4 - Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
QB - Ryan Tannehill
Elite Options - Jarvis Landry
Value Option - Kenny Stills
I don't always want to just give you the chalk stacks that you will find everywhere with one search. I have decided to do at least two, sometimes three, stacks that correlate very closely with the Player Lab tool and most times will be the chalk but like I mentioned chalk isn't a bad thing, it just comes down to the rest of your lineup construction. With the fourth stack I want to go very contrarian and find some low ownership in larger Guaranteed Prize Pool tournaments. I only recommend these stacks if you are multi entering.
My favorite contrarian stack of the week is the Dolphins coming off a brutal effort in week five. The Titans held Ryan Tannehill under 200 yards passing and sacked him six times while star WR Jarvis Landry had one of his worst games as a pro with three catches for 28 yards. Keep in mind the Titans are ranked 7th overall in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab tool. While the Steelers are no push over they rank 17th in Defense vs. the Pass. The Dolphins are also projected to be down almost the entire game meaning there should be a ton of volume from Tannehill to Landry. Tannehill has shown us the upside as he had back to back weeks with 300+ passing yards and multiple touchdowns while Landry has received 10+ targets in all but one game and sits tied for 8th in overall targets(48) on the season.
Honorable Mentions: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals & Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
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