Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 6 10/16/16

Week 6 is coming down the pike and there are some interesting big money plays to consider. This week doesn't have the "punt" element we've seen in other weeks which could make lineup creation tricky.

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QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger FD 8700 DK 7500
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 21.46 DK - 22.27
Stacking the Steelers as a team will be a fairly popular play this week and for good reason. They come into the week with the second highest team implied total this season and are content to throw the ball around forty times a game. Big Ben is expensive but has so many weapons (many of whom we will get to shortly) that his floor remains high on a week-to-week basis. Even last week in a relative blowout he threw 47 times for 380/4. We can’t pencil him in for that kind of production each week, but he’s facing a Miami team who allowed Marcus Freaking Mariota a career game last week. They look to be in real trouble here as well. The only thing that keeps Big Ben out of cash game consideration as opposed to his teammates is the price. I’d rather pay for the Bell’s and Brown’s of the world. But Big Ben’s a top play this week.

Tom Brady FD 9000 DK 7700
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 20.44 DK - 21.24
Ever heard of him? Brady came back with a bang last week going 28 for 40 and a 403/3 line that flicked off any of the perceived rust coming off such a long hiatus. Brady is likely the safest quarterback week-over-week considering how much the Patriots are willing to pass even in games where they have things well in hand. He has enough weapons in Gronk, Edelman plus auxiliary pieces like Hogan, Bennett and White out of the backfield. And they can keep defenses honest with Blount chewing up yards in the ground game. I don’t love the matchup against the Bengals (their performance against the Cowboys aside) and New England could turn this into a blowout early. Though I'm not sure that totally matters for Tom.

Alex Smith FD 6800 DK 5700
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 17.66 DK - 18.29
Wanted to throw a cheaper QB in the mix because, well, you can't play all the high-priced guys and quarterback is a spot we can sometimes reduce variance along the lower price points. Smith has actually thrown a ton this season thanks in part to two games (San Diego and Pittsburgh) in which he threw 48 and 50 passes respectively. That's what happens when you're playing from behind. That might not be 100% the case this week with Oakland as only a -1 going in, but the Raiders are struggling to stop other teams through the air this season. This game total (47) is right up there near the top and unlike some of the other higher implied totals, it projects as close. I think Smith is a fine cheap option and even pushes up against cash games if you want to stack high priced plays at the skill positions.

Strongly consider Cam Newton against the Saints. Our system has him projected as the top overall points quarterback though I get a little hesitant with players coming back from concussion. There's also talk of him running less with the contact concerns.

RUNNING BACKS

Le'Veon Bell FD 9300 DK 7900
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 24.94 DK - 27.81
Look, this one’s in the obvious camp as well and I suspect he’s the chalk play on both sites this week. Bell just dominates the Steeler offensive touches (which is really saying something) and is coming off a week of of 20 carries for 66 yards and 9 receptions for 88. The only thing that kept his game from being “elite” rather than just “awesome” was getting kept out of the end zone. He’s still an integral part of the Steeler red zone strategy so I’m not worried about his upside there and the Steelers are in the best spot for cash games this week because their production is rather concentrated as opposed to a team like the Patriots. Again, Bell is likely the chalk play even at his price simply because among the safest players out there in terms of floor.

Demarco Murray FD 8800 DK 7700
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 19.54 DK - 21.52
The Titans have shown their hand over the last couple of weeks with Murray just dominating the running touches and he’s in just the right situation for a starting RB. The Titans are one of the bigger favorites at -7 against a decimated Browns squad ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA against the run. And of course there’s Murray’s usage this season, especially in the short term. He’s averaged 26/108/1 over that time good for mid 20’s per game fantasy production. He’s proven to handle the load in the past and the Titans seem fine to use (overuse) him in the run game. The price has crept up to reflect the season output so he’s far from a bargain. But considering how the Titans use him in the passing game as well, he is coming close to the kind of safety Le’Veon Bell gives you.

Jordan Howard FD 7700 DK 6200
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 17.14 DK - 18.43
The Bears aren’t going to be favorites many weeks, but such is the case when you’re playing a team like the Jaguars who, to put it mildly, have issues. Now the Jags have been better against the pass this season, but are still bottom-feeding against the run. Howard is in that group of three down backs who won’t get their production buzzed off either on third down or on the goal line. He comes in about 20% cheaper than the two guys above and is coming off a week with 16/113 on the ground and an additional 45 yards through the air with a touchdown. That he’ll play in any situation (winning or losing) and dominates running back touches still makes him a super safe cash game play. He was chalk on DraftKings last week and could be in contention for that again this time around considering the price didn’t tick up too much.

Note: Check back later in the week for our Running Back Value column in which we break down some of the cheaper values on the slate.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown FD 9700 DK 10000
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 23.62 DK - 28.57
Sammie Coates FD 6400 DK 4700
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 13.89 DK - 16.1
I’m putting them together in the picks not because I see them as comps but mostly because they’re on the same team and some of the contextual pieces line up for Brown and Coates. Like Big Ben and Bell above, both Bell and Coates have a fantastic matchup this week against the Dolphins. Brown continues his target dominance, ranking second in the NFL with 56 on the season, good for a bit more than 11 per game. He’s elite and that doesn’t stand to change any time soon. He still is targeted in the end zone and yeah, he’s Antonio.

Coates on the other hand is an odd case. The price has come up some thanks in part to a dominant game against the Jets that saw him with 11 targets, good for a 25% target share when he was on the field. It’s that last part which is interesting because he only played about 60% of the Steelers’ snaps. It’s hard to trust a guy in cash who isn’t in a vast majority of offensive packages, but the production has been phenomenal. If he were to step up and play even more than I’d put him firmly in the “safe” category but as it stands he does need a lot to go right when on the field to hit value.

T.Y. Hilton FD 7900 DK 7700
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 17.1 DK - 20.18
Speaking of target monsters on the 2016 season, Hilton is third in the league behind Brown (and Mike Evans) with 55 (11 per game). Hilton’s issue as opposed to someone like Brown is he (historically) has converted less a percentage of those looks. This season they are on par with each other though of course the sample size isn’t huge. Hilton’s fifth in the league in total receiving yards and hasn’t seen much variance in his week-over-week looks. He’s steadily above double digits and should be in line for the same kind of production this week. Houston’s been fine enough against the pass this season so the matchup isn’t top tier, but few other WR1s are getting the steady usage like Hilton.

Doug Baldwin FD 7600 DK 6500
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 15.77 DK - 18.92
Baldwin’s coming off a bye and before that a week up against Darrel Revis. This week will be a slightly different scenario against an Atlanta team ranked near the bottom of the league against the opposing pass game. They’ve had relative success against opposing WR1s (Evans, Cooper, Benjamin, Cooks so the list isn’t a bunch of nobodies) but I think you see Baldwin return to more in the range of double digit targets he saw against Miami and San Diego. I wouldn’t call him a safe play, but I do like the mid tier value especially on FanDuel.

Mike Wallace FD 6400 DK 5200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 14.81 DK - 17.96
I’m working under the assumption that Steve Smith has a high ankle sprain and won’t be able to play in Week 6. That’s a big “if” but if last game was any indication then Wallace should become the defecto WR1 in Baltimore. He saw a big target spike after Smith left the game early on Sunday and finished with 11 targets and a 7/63 line. The latter isn’t much to write home about, but neither is the Giants pass defense. Baltimore has thrown a bunch this season and their lack of running game wouldn’t dictate any kind of major change there. If Wallace pushes to double digit targets again then I think he’s a solid value and doesn’t have deep play threat levels.

Note: Check back later in the week for our Wide Receiver Value column in which we break down some of the cheaper values on the slate.

TIGHT ENDS

Dennis Pitta FD 5400 DK 4300
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 10.46 DK - 13.2
The reasoning with Pitta is very similar to Wallace in that if Smith were to sit out we'd need to see targets redistributed to a few guys on Baltimore. Pitta was one of those guys last week finishing with a 7/59 line on eight targets. Those numbers won't wow you, but as we discussed on our podcast this week, tight end production has been highly variable throughout the league this year. You aren't paying top dollar for Pitta (reminder, you likely aren't getting top dollar production either) and you should see him used enough in the passing game to keep the floor high. It isn't a position I'm inclined to spend a ton on so grabbing Pitta in the lower mid tier does provide safety.

Zach Miller FD 5800 DK 3800
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 10.92 DK - 13.53
We have Miller and Pitta as basically coin flips this week. I'd probably default to just playing the cheaper one on the respective sites (Miller on DK, Pitta on FD) and call it a nice hedge. Miller saw a 7/73 line last week, converting all of his targets and continuing his good-not-great week-over-week performance that works fine for cash games. He's a red zone target which helps raise his floor even if the targets aren't there and this is a fine matchup against the Jags who admittedly have been above average against tight ends this season. Again, we don't want to overspend at tight end because the production just simply isn't steady enough across the position to warrant committing big bucks in the form of Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, etc.

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

Buffalo Bills vs. 49ers
Well the 49ers are officially a hot mess. They've started off the year 1-4 and are now pivoting to Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. It's no wonder they have the second lowest implied total on the week at 18.5. Buffalo hasn't been a great defense this season, but they are well above average in terms of DVOA against both the run and the pass. They aren't playing a super slow style (ranked bottom third in opponents plays per game) but can disrupt on the defensive side of the ball. Vegas is likely banking here on SF not transitioning well with a new QB in an offense that needs more help than just that switch.

Tennessee Titans vs. Browns
Speaking of teams who are a total and complete mess, I give you the 2016 Browns. Thank goodness Lebron and company took the Cavs to the promised land only a few months ago, or this Cleveland season would only have fueled the sports' demise of that city. They used their fifth quarterback of the season (if you count Terrelle Pryor taking snaps) on Sunday and though Cody Kessler will likely play again this week, does it really matter? The Browns have the lowest implied total on the week and the Titans are coming off a Week 5 that saw them handle the Dolphins with ease. Don't expect much from the Browns by the way of offense and Tennessee slows the game down enough to limit opponent possessions. I think you see these two teams as the chalkier plays considering their pricing isn't that aggressive.

Football's here, baby!

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