Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 204 - 10/8/16

DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

 

Shuffle, shuffle, H-BOMB! It’s the final fight in the storied career of Dan Henderson and while I don’t think we’ll see that overhand right, except for the countless replays of the first Bisping/Hendo fight, I’ll be glued to my seat for the main event. Which, by the way, is going to take place at about 5 am local time in London to keep the fights in prime time here in the U.S. It’s an interesting fact but I don’t know exactly what impact, if any, the time of day will have on anyone in the entire card.

It’s a pay-per-view so naturally there are more causal players on DraftKings, which equals more money in the pool. We are still adjusting to the new scoring rules and I think the most interesting challenge of this card isn’t picking winners but finding the fighters with the most fantasy upside in those wins. It’s an important distinction, especially this week - let’s take a look at my favorite fantasy plays in each price tier.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

 

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Gegard Mousasi ($9,400)

Vegas Line: -335
Finish Prop: -220
Career Record: 39-6-2
UFC Record: 6-3
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  3.56
Finishes: 20 KO / 12 Sub / 29 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round TKO – Thiago Santos

There are tons of guys in this price range who I think will win their fight, and even a few who could finish, but I think the best value in the tier lies with Gegard Mousasi. Mousasi has seen and done it all with 47 pro fights under his belt and viciously knocked out Thiasgo Santos at UFC 200. He’s a cool customer in the Octagon, is technically solid, and has one of the best chins in the division.

Vitor Belfort, on the other hand, is clearly on the downswing of his career and after his TRT fueled renaissance has looked very ordinary since it was banned. Belfort will flurry early and Mousasi will either counter or weather the storm, which historically has rattled Belfort and marks the beginning of the end. I just don’t see many paths to victory for Belfort and almost all roads seem to lead to a Mousasi win by stoppage. Roster away in all formats.

Prediction: Mousasi – 2^nd Round TKO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

Daniel Omielanczuk ($7,700)

Vegas Line: +155
Finish Prop: +316
Career Record: 19-5-1 (1 NC)
UFC Record: 4-2
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  3.02
Finishes: 3 KO / 9 Sub / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, Majority Decision – Alexey Oleynik

I’m here to help you out, there are a variety of plays that you’ve probably heard about in this price tier and while they are safer, Daniel Omielanczuk is a guy who can really bring your roster together with his $7,700 price tag. Omielanczuk is a heavyweight who has never been finished and I have major questions about Stefan Struve. This one is not going to be pretty, at all. I expect Omielanczuk to grind his way to a win but if a finish comes it should come from him.

Struve has found himself in early trouble a few times of late and just hasn’t looked like himself since the Mark Hunt fight - you can dismiss his win over Bigfoot because at this point a light breeze could knock over him over. Omielanczuk is an underdog who I think should be the favorite and while anything can happen in this weight class, with the price point so low, I’ll have heavy exposure to Omielanczuk and feel pretty good about it. Then again, this is the one price point I admittedly struggled with last week as Tamdan McCrory burned me, and a lot of the DFS community, really badly. Can you tell I’m still bitter about his outing last week? Anyway, Omielanczuk will be a go in my cash lineups.

Prediction: Omielanczuk – Unanimous Decision

 

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & UNDER)

Lukasz Sajewski ($7,200)

Vegas Line: +220
Finish Prop: +658
Career Record: 13-2
UFC Record: 0-2
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.01
Finishes: 2 KO / 7 Sub / 7 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:  1 Sub
Last Time Out: L, 1^st Round Submission (Armbar) – Gilbert Burns

I’m mixing a gut feeling with some of my basic philosophies to give you Lukasz Sajewski as a value play. His opponent, Marc Diakese, is going to be extremely popular despite making his UFC debut on Saturday night. Sajewski is a short notice replacement but he’s 0-2 in the UFC and clearly fighting for his life within the promotion. Guys with their backs up against the wall are dangerous and I typically shy away from fighters in their UFC debut. Also, Sajewski drew two really tough matchups for his first two fights in the UFC with a decision loss to Nick Hein, 8-1 in his last nine, as well as being caught in an armbar by submission specialist Gilbert Burns in July.

In the end, this is just a much closer fight than +220 and $7,200 would indicate so while I’m not running to bet on Sajewski, he gives me the upside I look for when making room for the higher priced fighters. I think the UFC jitters and Sajewski’s experience get the best of Diakese early and I expect the ownership to be really low. Fire away in GPPs and roster if you need the space in cash games.

Prediction: Sajewski – 1st Round Submission (Rear Naked Choke)

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.