Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
The Division Series continues on Friday with our first four game slate of the playoffs. There has been no shortage of runs so far with the Jays beating up on the Rangers 10-1 while the Indians are currently leading the Red Sox 5-3 late in game one. Even with ace pitchers on the mound anything can happen in playoff baseball. Let's take a look at the games.
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Game two brings us a matchup between J.A. Happ and Yu Darvish. While game one was a blowout where the Jays put up 10 runs on Cole Hamels, I expect game two to be a lot tighter and much lower scoring. Darvish is 2nd most expensive on FanDuel and 4th on DraftKings and comes with the most upside of the two with an elite 11.84 K/9 rate this season while the Jays struck out 22.4%(7th worst) against right handed pitching. Happ would be my favorite value play of the day as he comes in as the cheapest option on both sites. He had an excellent first season back with the Jays recording 20 wins and pitching to 3.18 ERA despite only striking out around 7.5 batters per nine. He closed out the season strong limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in five straight starts. He faced the Rangers just once this season, back in May, where he went seven innings limiting the Rangers to just one earned run.
The early Vegas total sits at a high 9.5 despite the quality pitcher son the mound making this one of the top games to target today. The Jays bats woke up in game one where their four star players(Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki) all had multiple hit games. Darvish gets into trouble when he starts putting batters on base via the walk(2.78 BB/9) so look for the Jays to be a little more patient on Friday to try and get the pitch count up early and multiple base runners. Michael Saunders will be back in the lineup vs. the right handed Darvish and makes a nice value play under $3K on both sites. Devon Travis also fits the profile of an excellent value play in the $3K range hitting leadoff.
On the other side I fully expect the Rangers to put up a better effort than yesterday. They were dominated by Estrada and only recorded four hits on the game. For the season they have been a better team against left handed pitching where they ranked 8th in wOBA(3.25). Much like Darvish, Happ can get into trouble with walks so I look for the Rangers to be more patient as well today. Adrian Beltre would be the top option as he lead the team(with at least 100 AB) against lefties with a .418 wOBA and 163 wRC+ on the season. The other top options are going to be Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Lucroy, and Ian Desmond who all hit lefties very well this season. If you are looking for a low owned value play consider Shin-Soo Choo who, in limited action, had a impressive .432 wOBA and 172 wRC+ against left handed pitching.
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The starting pitchers got hit hard last night in game one as both Rick Porcello and Trevor Bauer were unable to make it through five innings. The Indians ended up winning the game as the Red Sox comeback effort fell one run short. Game two gives us a nice matchup with former Cy Young award winners David Price and Corey Kluber going head to head. They finished the 2016 regular season with very similar stat lines:
David Price - 17-9, 3.99 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 8.92 K/9 rate, 1.96 BB/rate
Corey Kluber - 18-9, 3.14 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 9.50 K/9 rate, 2.39 BB/9 rate
Both pitchers had their struggles throughout the season but battled hard exceeding 200+ innings each. I will be avoiding both pitchers for the most part as this series pits two of the top five offenses head to head. I see this as one of the highest scoring games of the day. Not to say these pitchers can't shut down the opposing offense, it just isn't worth the risk unless you are playing multiple lineups.
Both teams have stacked lineups and make viable options on a night when all eight pitchers are good to great to Kershaw. The Red Sox lead the league in runs scored(878) this season on the back of their leader in his final season, David Ortiz. He was phenomenal and is walking off more than he is walking away with 38 HR, 127 RBI and 79 runs scored in 2016. The lineup packs a lot of punch and outside of Ortiz six other batters hit 15+ home runs. Mookie Betts sits right behind Ortiz with 31 and also added 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and added 26 stolen bases. Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. also offer terrific value today.
From the Indians side of things they were better against right handed pitching on the season but have some excellent value options who crushed southpaws. Jose Ramirez, Mike Napoli, and platoon player Brandon Guyer were all elite against left handed pitching with a wRC+ north of 120 for season. Napoli and Ramirez are sure to be in the lineup but watch for Guyer who has been a platoon player over the course of the season. There are some excellent values at 2B today and Jason Kipnis is one who could get avoided due to the lefty/lefty matchup but Kipnis was decent against southpaws this season with a .336 wOBA and 109 wRC+.
The pitching duel of the day! It pits National League Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer against the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. Scherzer put up an outstanding season with 20 wins in 34 starts with a 2.96 ERA and supporting 3.37 xFIP while striking out an elite 11.19 batters per nine innings. He comes into the playoffs on a roll winning eight of his final nine starts. He will face a Dodgers team who was great against right handed pitching on the season ranking 6th in wOBA(.331) but will be facing Scherzer for the first time in 2016. The floor is high with strikeouts and the ceiling is there if the Nats can get runs off Kershaw or even the bullpen late in the game.
On the other side the Dodgers come in as -150 road favorites as they toss their ace and best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw to the mound. If not for the injury that took him out for about two months, Kershaw would most definitely be the favorite to win that Cy Young award. In 21 starts in 2016 he recorded a 1.69 ERA, 2.28 xFIP and the most impressive part is the 172 strikeouts to just 11 walks. What??? He made four starts at the end of the year when he returned in September and slowly built his pitch count up and went seven innings in his final two starts. The only red flag in a sea of green flags is the fact that Kershaw has struggled mightily in the playoffs in the past with a 2-6 record and 4.59 ERA.
This definitely won't be the game I will be targeting bats in today. If you want to get a little crazy and go against the grain and the super low 6.0 Vegas total then there are a few viable options. For the Dodgers I would target the left handed bats(Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Josh Reddick) as Scherzer has dominated right handed batters holding them to a .206 wOBA while left handed batters have recorded a .323 wOBA. For the Nationals it's even tougher to pick out bats as Kershaw has held right handed batters to a .227 wOBA while holding left handed batters to an even lower .137 wOBA on the season. Trea Turner has been great this season with a .342 average and .937 OPS but is the most expensive option. If you want to throw in a value play take a shot with Jayson Werth in the $3K range on both sites. He sat out the final two games of the regular season but should a full go in the playoffs. I will be avoiding the bats in this game today.
From a PTS/$ perspective I will be laying my money on Jon Lester today. The Cubs were the class of the majors this season with 103 wins and come in to their first game of the playoffs as the biggest favorites on the slate(-170). Lester took a huge step forward in his second full season with the Cubs recording 19 wins with an elite 2.44 ERA and 8.75 K/9 rate. He will face a Giants team who got by the Mets in the wildcard game on the back of Madison Bumgarner who threw a four hit shutout. The Giants ranked 24th in wOBA(.307) and 26th in ISO(.135) against left handed pitching this season.
If you are playing in a large field tournament and want to differentiate yourself you can take a shot with Johnny Cueto and the underdog Giants. The Cubs are a scary matchup but in Cueto's defense he has been great down the stretch with a 2.21 ERA limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts with a 8.15 K/9 rate.
The obvious choice is going to be the Cubs who scored the 3rd most runs(808) in the major leagues this season. Although they are a bit better against left handed pitching they still ranked 7th in wOBA(.328) against right handed pitching on the season. They have elite choices in Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler, Willson Contreras and Ben Zobrist who all had a wOBA north of .350 against right handed pitching for the season.
The Giants don't have a ton of attractive hitting options as they struggled against left handed pitching as a whole this season but could be sneaky from an ownership perspective and we know anything can happen in the playoffs. The top options are Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence who all recorded a wOBA north of .350 on the season against southpaws.
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