Boston Red Sox's David Ortiz follows through on a home run off Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nathan Karns during the fifth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, April 22, 2015, in St. Petersburg, Fla. Catching for the Rays is Rene Rivera. (AP Photo/O'Meara)
The Wild Card games are an awful lot of fun, but the MLB playoffs get underway in earnest today. Unfortunately, we're getting eased into the divisional round with just two games. On the bright side, that's enough to give us a DFS slate, and beggars (guilty) can't be choosers.
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Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TEX
FD - 31.59 DK - 20.86
Here's the thing about the playoffs: there's no clear lineup to pick on. That's especially true tonight in the ALDS, as both parks are pretty hitter-friendly. I never thought I'd miss the Phillies as much as I do right now. What we've got today is one pair of second(ish)-tier arm and one pair of middle-class guys. Unsurprisingly, we like the expensive guys more for raw points, but from a value perspective, Hamels is actually the low man of the quartet. Part of that is due to the aforementioned park factors, as Globe Life Park is one of baseball's best hitting venues. Perhaps even more daunting is the sheer volume of right-handed thumpers in the Toronto lineup. Even though they underperformed relative to expectations and track record vs. southpaws this season, this is a tough order to navigate.
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 26.42 DK - 17.72
Among the cheaper guys, Estrada gets the slight edge over Trevor Bauer, but if you're playing cash games, we think you're probably better off just paying up for Porcello. Estrada is an extreme fly-ball guy, and the advanced stats say he shouldn't consistently gets the results he does. But that's kind of his thing. He's made his career on keeping fly balls in the park more often than he should, and that's a big reason why his ERA this season (3.48) was again well below his xFIP (4.64) this year. He also boosted his Ks in 2016, finishing with 8.48 per 9, which helps make up for the fact that he gave up considerably more walks. The Rangers haven't fully lived up to the sum of the lineup's parts, even after the trading deadline boost. But it's still a dangerous offense, with good contact guys and potent sticks throughout the order. Over the last month of the season they ranked sixth in MLB in ISO and were among the top 10 in the league in limiting strikeouts.
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.91 DK - 6.83
On the surface, Martin's .231/.335/.398 line makes it look like 2016 was just another year, much like most since he first moved to the AL back in 2011. But if you remember the truly epic struggles of April, you know there's more to the story. Back on May 24, Martin had just one extra base hit in 136 PAs and was hitting .172 while striking out in 1/3 of his appearances. After that? Twenty homers in 400 PAs with a .364 wOBA and a .225 ISO. In short, he went from a guy who appeared headed for the scrap heap to an All-Star caliber producer in the season's final four months. Those kind of numbers are tough to come by at catcher, especially at this time of year when the player pool shrinks, and especially at these prices.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.11 DK - 7.11
Lucroy's theoretically the sturdier/more reliable option at catcher; the question is, are you willing to pay? He's been one of the game's better hitting catchers since his breakthrough in 2012, but this year he set high-water marks in homers (24) and ISO (.208), and his wOBA (.362) was 20 points higher than his career average. No doubt, he's an elite guy at the position, and we've got him as the top catcher for raw points on the slate, so if you can swing these prices at catcher, go for it.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.08 DK - 6.9
David Ortiz is our top play of the night at 1B, but if you're looking to save some salary, Moreland's your guy. He'll give you solid upside at a very nice price point (.199 career ISO vs. RHP), but you're giving ground on the floor. He's buried deep in the order, which typically costs you in terms of expected plate appearances and run-producing opportunities.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.44
Two-game slates are weird, you guys. At second base, we get a clear distillation of why, as we like all four guys, but don't necessarily love any. Odor gets the slight edge on the projection, and if you're hunting upside, you won't find much better at 2B (on any slate) than a guy who hit 33 HRs with a .235 ISO this season, facing a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter's park.
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.97
We're going with Travis here, but it's really a three-way coin flip. At least on DraftKings the choice is a little easier, because you can save a few bucks by plugging in the Blue Jays lead off hitter. That spot atop a potent order is plenty valuable, and Travis did nice work in 100 games this season (.300/.332/.454).
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.35
Of all the big right-handed bats in the Toronto lineup, none mashes lefties quite like Donaldson. Of course, Cole Hamels isn't the kind of guy we'd typically look to pick on, but such is DFS life when we've only got two games to choose from. Unless you're going the bargain route at the hot corner today, go ahead and invest your salary in Donaldson's career .409 wOBA and .289 ISO vs. LHP.
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.32
I can probably guess what you're thinking, and no, the projection system hasn't suddenly confused Cole Hamels with Adam Morgan. Two games, people. It's rough out there. Tulo's our top pick for value and very nearly our top guy overall thanks to his career .401 wOBA and .229 ISO vs. southpaws. And while he's no longer the guy he was in his Colorado prime, the power is still there in ample supply (24 HRs, .189 ISO in 2016).
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.43 DK - 8.63
We've got another logjam in the outfield, where Bautista, Ian Desmond and Carlos Beltran are in a virtual dead heat as far as their projections. We're giving Joey Bats the edge here based largely on his DraftKings price. He's never been a guy with notably wide splits, but that's mostly because he's always been pretty good against everybody. His numbers dipped in an injury-plagued 2016, but there's still plenty to like in his .217 ISO, 17 percent walk rate and .355 wOBA.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.89 DK - 9.09
This was not a guy I expected to be writing up as recently as a month ago. But that's about the time he moved to the top of the Texas order and proceeded to slash .333/.387/.652 over the final three weeks of the season. Combine his Rangers resurgence with his not-so-distant history (.360+ wOBA in '13 and '14), and his favorable lineup slot, and you've got our top value OF of the day.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.19
Mazara's DFS usefulness took a hit when Gomez ascended and knocked the 21-year-old rookie to the bottom third of the order. He'll probably be there again today, which hurts, but if you're looking for a lineup filler, he can be had at a nice price. He finished 2016 with a .274/.332/.454 triple-slash against RHP.
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Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 33.13 DK - 21.97
Last year he was 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA while somehow holding a respectable 3.72 xFIP. This year, his xFIP was up to 3.89, while his ERA dropped by nearly 1.7 runs and he won 22 games. It's a weird sport sometimes. The truth of the two contrasting realities is that Porcello probably didn't deserve the numbers he finished with in either season, but it should also be noted that he's done nice work since coming to Boston in raising his K numbers to a respectable mid-7s/9, while also improving his command. It's not an easy combo to pull off. He's still not an elite-upside guy, but he should put the Red Sox in decent shape to walk out with a win, and that, along with his homer-suppressing stuff, makes him our top play of the day at pitcher.
Opponent - BOS (Porcello) Park - @CLE
FD - 26.34 DK - 17.69
Say this for Bauer, he'll probably be the lowest-owned SP today, and in GPPs, that's worth something. The risk here is obvious. The Red Sox had the best offense in baseball this season, both overall and against RHP. Also, Bauer has some gas-can tendencies (seven starts with five runs allowed in the second half of the season). But he can also be pretty tough when he's on. He cut down on his walks this season, and while his Ks also decreased, he still has the ability to miss bats when he's on his game (three double-digit K games this season and two more with nine). All of this probably only confirms what you already know: Bauer is a high-risk/reward guy in GPPs, but not a guy you want to count on for your cash games.
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 13.09 DK - 9.85
Just do it. Pay the price, buy the ticket, take the ride. We've got Papi as the top dude at 1B tonight in terms of both production and value, and you should be able to find enough affordable guys elsewhere that playing him won't be too big of a pain. And just because his MLB days are numbered, let take another opportunity to gawk at the numbers the 40-year-old put up in 2016: .315 avg., 38 HRs, 127 RBIs, .419 wOBA, .305 ISO.
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.35 DK - 7.28
If you're looking for a way to fit Papi in, playing Shaw would certainly help. You'll have to forego the opportunity to play Donaldson, of course, but we think it might be worth it. Not that we expect Shaw to keep pace in raw points, but we do think the stands a great chance of returning greater value while loosening you up to spend freely elsewhere. His numbers won't blow you away (.324 wOBA, .184 ISO vs. RHP), but they're decent enough for these prices.
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.98 DK - 8.01
We like Tulo more for value, but for steady production, you might find it worthwhile to pay up a little here. Bogaerts built on last year's breakout with improvement in every category other than batting average, finishing with 21 homers, 13 steals and a .348 wOBA. And even though they aren't the stats we tend to look at for predictive value, the fact that he scored 115 runs and drove in 89 illustrates how valuable it can be to hold down the three-hole in baseball's most prolific lineup.
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.27 DK - 10.11
If 2016 has been the swan song of one Boston hero, it's also served as the coming out party for another, as Betts has asserted himself as one of the game's true superstars in his second season. He finished the regular season with 31 homers, 26 steals, 122 runs, and 113 RBIs with a .379 wOBA and .216 ISO. We still love Bryce Harper and all, but if Mike Trout's looking in his rearview right now, Betts is the one he sees first. And while we don't want to get carried away with single-season splits, because they take a notoriously long time to stabilize, it's worth noting that he had a .388 wOBA against RHP in 2016.
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View Comments
Estrada is not going to be a pitching option on FD.
Well he is
I doubt Shaw plays, they've been playing Holt at 3rd
If holt is in at third he may be batting 2nd and bogaerts 6th. That was primarily the order in the last week of reg season.
why is Estrada not an option?
I did live chat with FD Support after Estrada was named as starting pitcher but was not an option on their site. The whiz kid that answered said that they set LU options days in advance and can't change/update them. So much for FD Support...
They got him on both sites FD and DK.
cause estrada is a risky play against a tex team i feel best with porcello
Estrada was $$$ yo'z!