New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady looks to pass during the first half of a preseason NFL football game against the New York Giants Thursday, Sept. 1, 2016, in East Rutherford. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Happy Week 5, everyone! Week 4 wound up being a weird one. Just 5 300 yard passers, a couple of unexpected 15+ target guys, a few key (and bizarre) injuries, and an extremely bizarre running back situation. Things turned out pretty well in DFSR land, but it was definitely a week where we needed to spread out exposure over all slates to avoid a few notable duds (Hi, Cam.). Either way, we've geared all the way back up for week 5, and we're ready to provide the picks you need to win fortune, fame, and fantastic looking significant others. Or maybe we're just sharing our opinions on fantasy football. Either way, it's bound to be a good time.
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Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 20.98 DK - 21.8
I have to admit, it feels weird putting Tom Terrific on this list. It fundamentally goes against everything we normally preach, primarily because we haven't seen Brady throw a single pass this season, and he's pretty darned old. With Brady, though, the #narrativestreet is too strong to ignore. Brady missed the first four games of the season due to suspension, not injury, and the Pats are coming off a humiliating game where they got shut out by the Bills. They've been slowly ramping up Gronkowski, and have been mostly relying on LeGarrette Blount to rumble their way to a solid 3-1 record. So what to make of Brady for this week? Well, you aren't exactly getting Brady cheaply here. Paying these prices means you believe he'll be back to his old self, and taking him against a very slow Cleveland team means you think that the #narrativestreet will overcome possible game script issues. And you know what? I think it might be worth it. The national hype over Brady's return will be so strong here that Brady will be hugely owned in all formats, and I can't really disagree with what people are projecting him for here. I think we see Blount and the rest of the running backs take a back seat here, and we see a vintage Brady/Pats game.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 22.06 DK - 22.67
I hemmed and hawed about writing up Rodgers or Andrew Luck in this spot. The hemming and hawing stemmed from me not liking either a ton but our system being high on both. I get why on the latter piece. The Giants rank 23rd against the pass this season and have had trouble keeping the offense on the field with in their last couple of games. Rodgers isn't coming cheap but the pace of this game should help him. The issue with Rodgers is he's clearly not the Discount Double Check dude of old. His accuracy's taken a hit and the Packers are throwing a little less this season. But they have the second highest implied total on the week and should have no problem getting things going against the G-Men. The Giants are banged up in the secondary and though they've theoretically controlled WR1s this season, they haven't played much in the way of upper level talent there (Cooks, D. Jax, Diggs, etc). I think Rodgers is a solid tourney play and does have a decent floor in cash.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 20.09 DK - 20.85
I referenced this in the opening paragraph, but last week saw just 5 300 yard passers. One of them was Philip Rivers. Many pundits (myself included) made a big deal about Rivers' lack of weapons going into the Saints game, but Rivers and the Chargers game-planned in a way that it simply made little difference. Rivers' completion percentage was down, but he was still reasonably efficient (65% completion percentage) considering that he's working with the B team right now. Critics will rightfully point out that Rivers' solid performance was against the 2nd worst passing defense, and that a less than spectacular performance against them might be more damning that it is reassuring. Except when you realize that his week 5 opponent is the very most generous team to opposing passers. If you would have named "Benjamin, Inman, Henry, Williams, and Gordon" as the top receivers on a team before the season, I'd guess that 75% or more of casual fans wouldn't have known which team you were talking about. Well, Rivers has made it work so far, and I suspect we have at least one more week of "Good Phil" before we need to reconsider.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.25 DK - 18.08
Is it a week to go cheap at quarterback? I'm certainly intrigued. Hoyer has turned in back to back 300+ yard and 2 TD performances. While he arrived at those nearly identical results in somewhat different ways, the consistency is certainly welcome on these extremely cheap prices. After watching Cutler melt down season after season, it stands to reason that John Fox and the Bears might be interested in a guy who can actually pass the ball in a way that his own team catches it, instead of the other team. And Hoyer has certainly offered that. His 70% completion rate as a starter this year is fantastic, and you have to love that the Bears aren't asking him to do too much regardless of game script. He took the same approach in a close win over Detroit that he took in a bad loss to Dallas - short passes to reliable ball catchers that steadily move the chains. Hoyer has some proven weapons in Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, and Zach Miller, and seems to be developing a relationship with Kevin White that could be something. After a week where he was one of 5 300 yard passers, you could do a lot worse than paying dramatically less for guys that have achieved less results this season. Throw in a match-up with a flailing Indy defense, and I'm very interested.
Keep an eye on: Cam Newton. It's an excellent match-up with the Bucs, but the concussion protocol thing is obviously pretty terrifying from a daily fantasy perspective. My gut tells me that it's probably wrong (from a safety perspective) to play a run-first QB who's a hit away from missing a quarter (or the rest of the game) given that we have some solid match-ups elsewhere, but don't let him slip off your radar. After an underwhelming week 4 performance, Cam is at least a very interesting big tournament target.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 17.59 DK - 19.09
Well he's back. Any questions about if Pittsburgh would ease the dude back into the mix were dispelled pretty quickly. In a total Steeler rout, Bell carried the ball 18 times for 144 yards and also went 5/34 on six targets. Staying out of the end zone was the only thing that kept him from having an epic day instead of just an awesome one. Between Bell and Antonio Brown (who we'll get to in a second) you likely capture most of the Steelers' offense output and playing even both in cash will give you a high floor week in and week out. The Steelers have the third highest implied team total going against the Jets who rank 28th in defensive DVOA though they are significantly better against the run (3rd best in the league). Even with that latter piece, Bell is still the highest raw point running back in the system and if you go cheaper at quarterback then Bell is the high floor player to fill in the salary gaps.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 16.41 DK - 18.21
Gordon is a bit of an enigma heading into week 5. On one hand, the undeniable opportunity he's brought to the table so far paints the picture of a running back that should be priced in the $8,000s. You just won't see a lot of running backs who get all of their team's goal line carries AND 25+ touches per game priced in the $7,000s the way he has been. Oakland has also been positively brutal against the run this season, allowing a league worst 5.1 yards per carry and allowing more total yards than any team except their buddies across the Bay, the 49ers. There are two big questions you need to ask yourself before deploying Gordon this week - do you think he gets back up to 4+ YPC in this game, and if not, do you think his team will go to more of a timeshare in the backfield? It's not clear to me, but this is such a fantastic match-up that it's hard to imagine not considering Gordon once again for cash games in week 5.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 18.88 DK - 20.39
Howard was a chalk week 4 play on prices far cheaper than these, and it might be a little surprising to see him on the short list of running backs for week 5. The underlying numbers on Howard support him even at these prices. He put up a very consistent 111 yards on 23 carries, gaining positive yardage very consistently and helping the Bears grind away their first win of the season. While Detroit has been softer on a yard per carry allowed basis than Indy, the Colts are still in the bottom half of the league at defending the run this season. Howard was also not quite as featured in the passing game as he had been, but that seemed to largely be a function of the fact the Bears were actually leading in this game. The Bears' willingness to give him 23 carries in a win and their willingness to use him a great deal in the passing game during a loss in the previous week leads me to believe that Howard will be a part of the game plan regardless of game script, leading me to believe that he'll be one of the safest backs overall going into week 5.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 16.4 DK - 18.1
In the interest of full disclosure, we haven't called Murray's number a single time in this resurgent season. We had big concerns about Derrick Henry eating into his workload, and it wasn't clear that he'd come anywhere close to justifying RB1 prices. After week 4, I'm feeling a lot more confident. Murray topped 20 touches once again, and got all of the Titans' goal line work. While he didn't garner the same targets in the passing game that he did week 3, it was very reassuring to see Derrick Henry being an afterthought in every phase of the game. Teams have attempted to run the ball against Miami a league leading 139 times this season, and while those carries have only netted 3.7 yards per carry this season, teams clearly see Miami's run defense as highly suspect. While there are a number of consistent running backs in the $8000+ range, Murray's explosive yards per carry ability and potential opportunity as a pass-catcher on a team with very few options has him ranking as one of the highest upside plays at the position this week.
Also considered: Terrance West. With Forsett out of the picture (again?) West racked up 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against an admittedly soft Oakland team in week 4. That's obviously a great performance, and West is quite a bargain industry-wide if he's going to get be the primary ball carrier in Baltimore. The annoying thing here, though, is that that's not totally certain. He was on the field for just 39 of the Ravens' 56 offensive plays, and wasn't featured as a pass-catcher at all. And boy, do I hate me some "hot hand" talk. I'm going to wait and see if we can't get a little more news here before committing anything major on West.
A not-so quick note on big ticket wide receivers for this week
We normally feature a big ticket wide receiver in these articles, since there's almost always one (and occasionally two) in our optimal lineups from week to week. This week? It's not so clear. When we think big name receivers for DFS purposes, our minds should immediately conjure up Antonio Brown. Well, he has a weird match-up with the Jets this week. On one hand, the Jets have been the stone cold worst against the pass this season, yielding an unfathomably bad 9.7 yards per attempt (the worst in the league). On the other hand, the Jets have not been destroyed by WR1s this season - they held Doug Baldwin and Jeremy Maclin in check, for instance. On the other other, other hand, AJ Green destroyed them in week 1. What will become of Brown in week 5? I'm not entirely sure. Revis Island seems a lot more hospitable than the days of old, but I'm sure I want to invest in it just yet. Ya dig?
And then there are a few other options. Odell Beckham is out of the elite WR1 picture for me for the time being. AJ Green has a super slow match-up with the Cowboys. DeAndre Hopkins' face is on milk cartons all over the country.
And then there's Julio Jones. So, yeah. That happened. Our main criticism of Jones was that the Falcons were spreading the ball all over the place.... and then, they didn't. Jones proved at the very least that 1) he's healthy, and 2) he still has 15+ target top (top) tier performances in him. That's great. But for this week? Oy. Denver has literally been the worst overall match-up for opposing wide receivers this season. Their 5.6 yards per attempt allowed is stifling, and their 55.4% completion percentage allowed is the 2nd best in the NFL. It's not a week I'm willing to trust Jones, but I don't blame you if you're rolling him out there.
Julian Edelman FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 15.87 DK - 19.59
Meet Mr. Cash Game for week 5! Edelman has basically tread water this season thanks to a mishmash of back-ups lining up under center for the Pats, but with the Golden Boy returning for week 5, he stands to have a pretty huge resurgence. His price is just absurdly low compared to where it's likely to be when the Pats settled back into doing Pats stuff, and with Brady working to catch back up to game speed, you can believe his favorite possession receiver will be in the middle of it all. With Gronk still operating at less than 100%, I expect double-digit targets for Edelman and 100+ yards receiving to go with it. I'm also guessing that this is easily his lowest price of the season going forward - the value here is just undeniable.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 16.46 DK - 19.28
It's always interesting to recommend a guy the week after he comes crashing back down to Earth. After being a ubiquitous cash game play in week 4, Pryor's ownership for week 5 is mostly a mystery to me. It stands to reason that Cleveland will basically be out of this game from the opening whistle, and given their general lack of options, it's hard to imagine him not being the focal point of the offense. But how much is that really worth? Pryor was transcendent against the Dolphins, sure, but also had plenty of opportunity in lackluster performances against the Bills and Redskins. All the opportunity in the world isn't worth a whole lot if your quarterback simply can't get the ball to you. That said, I can't even figure out what other options the Browns DO have this week. They aren't going to be able to line up and run the ball down the Pats' throats, and they really don't have a lot of other viable options in the passing game. I suspect Pryor is going to be an erratic receiver in the mold of TY Hilton or Mike Evans going forward, but that's normally worth a salary about 10% higher than what we're seeing here. If you're willing to welcome a bit of risk into your daily fantasy football life, Pryor is certainly a guy who can make it worth your while, and at these prices his floor is high enough that he's not super likely to kill you from week to week either.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 9.61 DK - 12.09
Through the first four weeks of the season, Kyle Rudolph is third in the league in targets among tight ends. And that’s with only three games under his belt. Rudolph is actually tied with Stefan Diggs for the team lead and he’s played one less game. It’s hard to overrate this kind of volume for the tight end position. And the price hasn’t climbed to reflect the opportunity. Houston’s been solid against the pass and plays at a relatively slow rate which does cut into Rudolph’s overall chances here, but I see him as the cash game in this price range and he allows you to spend up elsewhere.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 10.1 DK - 12.29
Look, tight end is real tough this week. There are three tippy-top options in Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski being somewhat cost prohibitive considering they aren’t necessarily elite target guys. That leaves us digging around the cheaper options hoping to hit something. Henry is a guy I suspect is popular again this week after catching a TD and hitting value in Week 4 against the Saints. If Henry can get about 6-7 targets this week then I like his chances at hitting value against the Raiders who have been below average against tight ends this year.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 10.93 DK - 13.53
Well the good news is he’s averaging more than six targets in his three games this season. So he has that going for him. Unfortunately he’s turned them into only 11/159 good for an average of 3.6/53. Those game totals leave a lot to be desired and Mariota’s struggles with accuracy could mean this kind of conversion rate continues. The matchup against Miami is about as good as it gets from a bad pass defense standpoint which does give him some upside though he isn’t exactly cheap either.
New England Patriots vs. Cleveland
The Patriots open the week as the biggest favorite with the Browns coming in as the second lowest implied total on the slate. We can expect the Browns to have to pass a ton to even think about trying to keep with Brady and company which could lead to both interceptions and sacks. Cleveland's had trouble with both this season, ranking below average in those stats. And not to go all #narrativestreet here, the Pats likely come out fired up here.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston
I suspect these two teams are the chalk plays for Week 5. Minnesota is clearly in the "elite defense" category, ranking third overall in DVOA and basically shutting down offenses on the regular. They've handled the Giants and Panthers in back-to-back weeks and Houston comes in as the lowest overall implied total this week. Brock Osweiler's been interception prone this season and most likely isn't a good quarterback (groundbreaking take there). The Texans haven't allowed many sacks, but they've run the ball a ton this year which cuts into that number. The Vikings should be more expensive and you are getting them at a discount in this matchup.
Football's here, baby!
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Gronk or Bennet?