Mets at Orioles 8/19/15
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Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TOR
FD - 32.4 DK - 16.72
Stroman comes into this game as the -147 favorite and offers a chance to save some money on DraftKings in the SP2 slot. He's put together a fine enough peripherals season, striking out about 7.5 per nine and keeping the walks under 2.5 per. His 3.41 xFIP is much better than the 4.37 ERA which could be in large part due to his heavy GB% number. Stroman is elite in this category and it's the thing that allows him to pitch longer into games. I'll take him for the savings and hope he can get through a K-happy O's lineup.
Opponent - TOR (Stroman) Park - @TOR
FD - 26.35 DK - 13.25
I'm less inclined to play Tillman here as the underdog against a Blue Jays lineup which is fairly stacked at the top of the order. Tillman's been a below average pitcher this season and it says a lot about the O's that this is who they'd have to turn to in a must-win game. His 4.54 xFIP is rough and is about a 2:1 K:BB guy. He's my least favorite pitcher on this slate and it isn't that close.
The Blue Jays are the team to target in cash games for sure. In fact, for this short slate of games, double stacking this game is probably the way to go. I suspect that's the chalk move for about everyone. Considering the implied run line in this one as compared to the Mets-Giants (8.5 to 6) you'd probably be making a cash game mistake going against the grain. The park is solid and I'm looking to get four Jays into my cash lineups. Jose Bautista, Devon Travis (if hitting leadoff) and Josh Donaldson are of course the main targets here but really the whole team is in play.
On the Orioles' side of things, Hyun Soo Kim is still coming very cheap if he's hitting in the two hole while Manny Machado and Adam Jones are of course top of the order guys you should consider. Again, I can't overstate just how much better this game is than the Mets-Giants.
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Opponent - SF (Bumgarner) Park - @TOR
FD - 36.16 DK - 20.55
Opponent - NYM (Syndergaard) Park - @TOR
FD - 34.44 DK - 19.23
From a pitching standpoint, this is the game you want to be all over. It has a super low implied total (6) thanks to two of MLB's best pitchers taking the mound. Syndergaard's been elite this season with a 2.67 xFIP and K rate well above 10 per nine. He's on a short list of best pitchers in the league. The only issue here is the low money line relative to price and the idea that the Giants don't K a ton.
On the other side of things, I'm actually okay with playing Bumgarner and Thor together on DK. There are potentially ways to fit both of their salaries and both have such higher floors than either pitcher in the other game. Bumgarner is also an elite K guy, striking out almost 10 per nine this season but the xFIP is merely in the average zone in the mid 3's. I like both pitchers but will nod to Thor on FD.
I don't want much to do with this game simply because the pitching is so awesome. You can fill out lineups with some of the cheaper hitters in the hopes of getting luckier, but this is mostly a stayaway if you can avoid it. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes are two cheaper options that help round out some infield plays, but overall no thanks. Brandon Belt would also make a decent cheaper option if he sticks in the two hole.
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View Comments
Would like to do both, but the bats would suffer. Who do you go for Bumgarner or Syndergaard?
I am roatering bumgarner, im 18 points behind so I'm thinking of doing a late roster change. I just dont know who will score more, posey span garner, or thor, cespedes and posey?