Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 4 10/2/16

Happy week 4, everyone! After a very nice week 3, we're riding high and excited to continue churning out projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. As the NFL season chugs along, it becomes more and more important to sift through the seas of information and parse the signal from the noise. The good news for you? That's why we're here. So take a seat, pour a glass of your favorite beverage, and let's experience the magic.
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QUARTERBACKS

Andrew Luck FD 8900 DK 7400
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 24.21 DK - 25.48
There are two truths going down in DFS NFL this week and they are we have teams facing the Jaguars and the Saints. That’s basically about all you’re going to need to know going in. Now the one issue with the Colts-Jags is the game is being played in London at 9:30 AM EST (thanks a lot England for snootily being in a different time zone) and it isn’t on the main slate of games. That’s a shame because Jacksonville’s continued their futility against really just about everyone and Luck is in a fantastic spot again this week. There are still some shoulder concerns and the Colts didn’t throw the ball a ton against San Diego last week, but they still have one of the highest implied totals on the board. And Luck should remain a high volume thrower. Alas, we can’t play him in the bog tournaments but he alone is almost worth playing the early slate.

Cam Newton FD 9300 DK 7800
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 24.64 DK - 25.35
The Panthers’ fans got a good scare on Sunday when Cam was forced out of the game and Derek Anderson came trotting on to the field. That’s enough to make any fan base take a collective dump in their pants. But Newton returned a play later so all was right in the world. Well, almost right because Carolina went on to lose the game to the Vikings. The good news is the Falcons aren’t anywhere near the defense of Minnesota. They rank near the bottom of the league in DVOA against the pass this season and Monday’s game against the Saints highlighted many of their deficiencies. Cam, sans a quality running game, becomes the de facto offense (even more than normal) and he should be in line for a big game. For the main slate he’s likely the safest cash option. Kelvin Benjamin was shut out last week but I don’t expect that to continue and I think you see Cam work with an elite target guy this week.

Philip Rivers FD 8500 DK 6900
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 19.84 DK - 20.59
Oh baby. The Saints can’t stop anyone. At. All. Matt Ryan and the Falcons had their way with the Saints on offense last week and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of hope in sight for the New Orleans’ D. Rivers isn’t coming super cheap and does get a couple of knocks against him because he is without significant weapons in the passing game. Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead are done and Antonio Gates might be out as well. That’s a lot of high quality targets to lose and you saw some of the issues last week against the Colts. That being said, the Saints’ D is just dreadful, ranking near the bottom of the league in DVOA against the pass while also playing at a decent pace. The Chargers go in as -4 favorites with a 52.5 open. Tons of points expected here and Rivers has a high floor.

For sneaky upside: Andy Dalton.

RUNNING BACKS

LeGarrette Blount FD 7500 DK 5000
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 16.53 DK - 16.7
Getting the season's rushing attempts leader for mid-tier prices across all sites? That's a Blount that I'll happily pass to you. Man, that was a stupid joke, but I'm going to leave it here so a future version of myself can look back on this and shake his head, feeling smugly secure at how far he's come. Meanwhile, the Patriots' clear RB1 has topped 22 carries and found the end zone in each of his three starts this season, and Foxboro's finest seem to have fully moved on from the RB by committee of yesteryear. The huge workload disparity among the guys at the top of the RB food chain and everybody else is one of the great untold stories of this fantasy season. Blount's closest neighbors price-wise on FanDuel are Lesean McCoy and Demarco Murray. McCoy has 48 carries this season, and Murray has 41. This means that Blount (with 75 carries) could likely take this week off and still have had more carries than either. Blount also has the benefit of being his team's definitive goal line back. Buffalo has allowed a league-average number of rushing attempts this season, and in a game where the Pats are projected to be solidly ahead, I suspect we see another big week for their workhorse.

Melvin Gordon FD 7600 DK 6300
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 18.23 DK - 20.27
Gordon owners were bailed out of a lackluster yards per carry performance by a touchdown, but Gordon's job security is a lot of what you're paying for here. And, many times, the clear number 1 running back will also be in line for the goal line touches. While we were certainly hoping for a bigger performance against the Colts' less than stellar defense, Gordon turned in solid YPC performances against both Jacksonville and Kansas City, and this match-up with the Saints should have more similarities with those games than his week 3 effort. I find the fact that no other RB had a single carry for the Chargers particularly encouraging. Gordon is the crystal clear guy, and after watching the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman positively go off against the Saints on Monday night, I think we'll see Gordon combine his solid pass catching ability (4 catches for 43 yards on 7 targets) with a heavy workload out of the backfield for a very solid fantasy week.

Jordan Howard FD 5600 DK 3700
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 13.8 DK - 15.17
The value pick de jour for week 4. Wait a second - du jour means "of the day," right? What's the "of the week" special supposed to be? The RB "du semaine?" Sounds pretty awful. Moving on - the player profile on Howard. I discussed this in Tuesday's podcast, but Howard doesn't exactly cut the profile of the slam dunk fill-in RB at cheap prices. The primary concern here isn't really Howard's talent - his 5 yards per carry and 4 receptions on 6 targets last week look like all you'll want from a running back at what amount to bargain basement prices on FanDuel and DraftKings. The concern is how much opportunity he'll really have going forward. The Bears have struggled offensively, and their 53 rushing attempts this season are good for dead last in the league. But this is one of those cases where less than a full load of opportunity isn't dissuading us. Howard's 6 targets from last week show that the Bears are willing to use him in the passing game, and with Kadeem Carey out this week as well, the 16-19 touches we have him projected for should be enough to return value on these prices against a Lions defense that has been less than stellar this season.

Also considered: David Johnson. Frequent readers and listeners of DFSR media might be surprised to see his inclusion here, given how anal we tend to be about solid opportunity over long, flashy runs. Johnson's proven to be more than just his highlight reel, though. While his 47 carries this season are simply not what you want from these prices, his 56 receiving yards per game and workload in the red zone has made up for his lack of regular carries as compared to his peers. I'm not prepared to call Johnson a safe cash game play - I think his 17 yards per catch are clearly unsustainable, but even if he falls down to 35 yards per game he'll still be a very interesting play against the Rams this week. I believe we saw his floor against Buffalo, and if the Cards are going to give him that kind of run when they're down big, there should be considerable upside here.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown FD 9400 DK 9700
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 22.43 DK - 27.12
We're not exactly breaking any new ground with this one, but Antonio Brown will slide comfortably back into the WR1 role for week 4 as well. If the trend toward a definitive tier of top level opportunity guys has emerged at RB, Brown is the last man standing in the "reliable opportunity guy" at wide receiver. Going off for 12 receptions and 140 yards when your team scores just 3 points is no easy task, and is a testament to just how big a role Brown has to play if the Steelers are going to do anything at all. While Brown is just 2 targets ahead of Mike Evans for the league lead, all of the other guys around him have nowhere near the track record of elite performance AND elite opportunity. This play isn't without risk, though. Kansas City has allowed the 2nd lowest completion percentage and the 7th fewest yards to opposing passers this season. But it's not like Brown has had fantastic match-ups leading up to this point. It's usually wrong to say, but in this case, Brown seems to be the type of guy who is going to get his almost regardless of who he's lined up against, and the prices haven't quite caught up.

Larry Fitzgerald FD 7500 DK 7200
Opponent LA
Proj Points FD - 17.62 DK - 21.41
Old man Fitzy has been a system favorite in the last 2 weeks after he seemed to emerge as the safest Arizona option during their week 1 loss to the Pats. While Fitzgerald lacks some of the flashy downfield plays of his youth, he's topped the Cardinals in targets every single week, and it hasn't been particularly close. His 32 targets this season are good for 5th best in the league, and he seems to be the clear #1 option at the wide receiver position when the Cardinals get near the end zone. Now last week was an aberration on some level, of course. The Cardinals aren't going to average 50 passes per game going forward, and particularly not against a team that's far less likely to blow them out in the Rams. An interesting note on the Rams from week 3 - they let Adam Humphries go off for 9 catches and 100 yards while being a worse version of Larry Fitzgerald. The middle of the field should be open for Fitzy all day, and he looks like a phenomenal play in all formats.

T.Y. Hilton FD 7600 DK 7000
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 18.84 DK - 22.23
If Fitzgerald is a great cash game play, Hilton is his big-play brother from a different mother. The man known mysteriously as "T.Y." has truly been an enigma during his brief NFL career, routinely mixing in absolute eye poppers (like his 8 for 174 last week) with complete duds (like his 4 for 41) the week before that. Who, pray tell, is the real T.Y. Hilton? Honestly, that's the real Hilton. He's always been a huge volume targets guy, but his targets are just the polar opposite of a guy like Larry Fitzgerald's. The long and complicated routes he runs have yielded a very poor reception:target ratio, and have made him one of the more erratic fantasy quantities in daily fantasy football - in spite of his rock solid 17% target share week in and week out. At season's end he'll look pretty much like a WR1, but you'll have sat through a huge pile of duds along the way. The key, then, is finding his big weeks. Teams haven't had to thrown deep on Jacksonville very often this season, Vegas likes this one for a close game with a 50 total, leading me to believe that the Colts will take more chances downfield than the average Jacksonville opponent. Yes, this is high risk - but for big tournaments, that's exactly what you'll want.

Terrelle Pryor FD 7000 DK 4300
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 15.89 DK - 18.61
Um, what? Pryor was the run-away story from week 3, accumulating large chunks of fantasy value on the ground, and while passing AND receiving. After 24 targets in 2 weeks, it sure looks like the Browns are treating this much the same way a high school team would. "Yep, this guy is our best athlete. Can he play WR AND RB? Can he just play defensive end as well?" The Browns are one of those teams where all we really have to go on is a small sample. They've tried 4 different guys (including Pryor) at QB this season, and their best recipe so far seems to be the Kessler-Pryor duo. I don't think bards will write great ballads on their deeds or anything, but Pryor is still priced like a wildly speculative play (on DK in particular), and you just aren't going to get any other chances at wide receivers who were directly involved in 23 of their team's offensive plays last week at prices like these. I think the targets come back to the low double digits, but that Pryor pays this price with his eyes closed. I suspect I'll play him in all types of formats.

Doug Baldwin FD 7400 DK 6100
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 15.42 DK - 18.5
Baldwin rebounded after a perplexingly awful game against the Rams, putting up a phenomenal 8 receptions with 164 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers. While I'm never thrilled about sending a receiver off to Revis Island, it could be that we've moved beyond the stage in Revis' career where the guys opposing him are must-avoids. AJ Green blistered Revis and the Jets for 12 catches and 180 yards in week one, and while Baldwin arguably doesn't have the same upside that Green does, he's also far less likely to get shadowed by Revis here. These same Jets have also allowed a league worst 10.7 yards per passing attempt this season. We've talked about this before, and yes, Baldwin will never replicate last season's touchdown performance. But these prices don't force him to. I think Baldwin remains a viable cash game value play for week 4, and wouldn't be surprised if he gobbles up lots of yardage up the middle while Revis is chasing the faster Seahawks receivers down the sidelines.

Strongly consider: AJ Green. It was a down week against the Broncos, but a lot of offensive players are going to have down weeks against the Broncos. Green has a wonderful opportunity to turn his consistently high targets into big yardage and big money for his fantasy owners if he can find the end zone.

TIGHT ENDS

Zach Miller FD 5000 DK 2700
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 10.17 DK - 12.61
As Chicago continues to lose skill players, it has been interesting to see Miller rise into a much more active role in the team's offense. He is their clear first option in the passing game down there (as evidenced by last week's multiple touch down performance), and his snaps and target share have risen steadily as the weeks have gone on. After 68 snaps and a 14% target share in week 3, Miller's stock is soon to burst. Absolutely ridiculous value on DraftKings, and a great play on FanDuel as well.

Coby Fleener FD 5400 DK 3200
Opponent SD
Proj Points FD - 10.61 DK - 13.09
Fleener was a not-so-sleeper for many in the fantasy football industry going into week 1, and after 2 terrible performances, he lost a lot of supporters. Fast forward to Monday night, and fast Willie Snead's absence has Fleener going off for 7 catches, 109 yards, and a touchdown. I'm not sure if we can count on performances like that going forward, but that game coming on the heels of a game where he garnered 17% of his team's targets against the Giants has me buying Fleener stock as well. Both of these guys are just such tremendous values that it's really hard to imagine paying up at the position today.

Also considered: Both Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta. Though at similar prices, I prefer the above guys.

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

Houston Texans vs. TEN
The case against the Texans is they had some issues stopping a New England team operating with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. That's something of a tell for sure. But you have to factor Coach Billy B. into that mix and the Texans had some key fumbles that put the Pats into scoring position with ease. Vegas has the Titans as the lowest implied total going into this game (17 points) as they have little to speak of in the explosive offense department. The Titans looked dreadful against a defensively-challenged Raiders' squad last week. Mariota couldn't get anything going and it stands to reason the Texans will work the clock a ton here behind Lamar Miller and the ground game.

Minnesota Vikings vs. NYG
The Giants could be in real trouble if they have no running to speak of. Shave Vereen is done for the year, Rashad Jennings has hand issues and they could be relying on dudes like Orleans Darkwa to get anything established there. The Vikings on the other hand are playing outstanding defense and had no issue taking the Panthers out of any rhythm last week. Minny is ranked in the upper echelon of defensive DVOA and could dial up the sacks if the Giants are forced to pass more than usual.

Football's here, baby!

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