Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Personnel
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Texas Rangers
We haven't gotten quite as much offense as we've been hoping for out of the Rangers this week, but our projection system (and Vegas) remains bullish on the Texas bats. Tonight they get Chase Anderson, owner of a 4.71 xFIP and 1.66 HRs/9. Those numbers make him one of the juiciest targets on the slate before you even consider the fact that Globe Life Park is arguably the best hitter's park available tonight. The Rangers lineup has had its share of ups and downs this season, even after adding Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy at the trading deadline. Nonetheless, there's plenty to like in the individual pieces, as they can roll out formidable bats throughout the lineup. And despite so-so returns over the past couple of days, the performance has begun to match the sum of the parts recently. The Rangers lead baseball in ISO and rank fourth in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 30 days.
St. Louis Cardinals
Yeah, we're running the same teams back from yesterday. Luckily for us (and for those of you who heeded the advice) the Cardinals paid off much better than Texas last night, homering five times in a 13-hit, 12-run win over the Reds. Tonight's matchup should be a little tougher, as they'll be facing Anthony DeSclafani, who actually hasn't been bad this season. In fact, in terms of both ERA and xFIP, he's among the best taking the hill today (though that's actually more a statement about the relative weakness of pitching on this slate than anything). Regardless of DeSclafani's decent showing, we're high on the Cardinals against most righties. They lead the NL in ISO against RHP this season, while ranking second in wOBA and wRC+. They're also very affordable, which should make them a nice complementary stack with more expensive bats or allow you to pay up a little more at pitcher if you're interested in the higher-priced arms tonight.
Unlike last night, when we felt it was a little risky to pivot away from the elite arms (thankfully Matt Moore came through), we have very little issue with that strategy tonight. Jake Arrieta is the only ace-level SP going, and he gets a reasonably tough matchup with Pittsburgh, and the Cubs aren't likely to push him beyond his comfort zone with their playoff position well in hand. Beyond that we've got Cole Hamels in a fine matchup in a bad park, Michael Fulmer in a bad spot against Cleveland (unless the Indians go with a Quad-A lineup again), and the never-trustworthy Jeff Samardzija. So yeah. Fade City. The options in middle tier are only somewhat more palatable, but we're highly intrigued with De Leon, who's shown us both good and bad in his first three big-league starts. He fanned nine Padres while giving up three runs over six innings in his debut, but got roughed up at Arizona last time out. Based on an impressive minor-league track record (11.57 Ks/9 in Triple-A this season) we tend the think the former is closer to the true talent. And of course the Petco+Padres combo plays a big role in this recommendation. San Diego ranks dead last in wRC+ over the last 30 days and for the season against RHP.
You guys know about Mike Trout, right? He's the best. Like, literally, the best everyday player in baseball. Sonny Gray is something less than that. Actually, Gray is a pretty complex case. He came into 2016 on the heels of back-to-back solid seasons, even if the underlying stats told us not to fully trust the results. Sure enough, the Regression Gods proved their vengeful nature this season, as Gray has been torched by an ugly HR:FB ratio and ridiculously bad strand rate. So what do we make of all that? Other than to say he's not really as bad as this year's 5.74 ERA or as good as last year's 2.73 ERA, I'm not sure anybody can confidently say. But for our purposes here, it doesn't much matter. He will be overmatched by Mike Trout, because so are we all. We've got Trout as the top projected hitter tonight, and if the Nationals vs. Shelby Miller gets rained out, it's really not even close.
If you're playing a slate that include the lone day game, go ahead and grab Altuve, because 1) he's incredible, 2) he's facing a lefty, 3) he's extra incredible against lefties, 4) power plays well at Minute Maid Park, 5) it'll give you at least one spot where you won't be guessing at who's starting tonight. Listen, James Paxton has done some nice work this season. He misses a decent number of bats and he keeps the ball on the ground, all of which is admirable and makes him a tough matchup for most guys. But Altuve is extraordinary: an elite contact hitter (9.8% Ks), with plus power (24 HRs, .198 ISO), and plus speed (27 SBs). And even though his splits have evened out this season, in his career, he's done his best work against lefties (.385 wOBA).
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
I like Trout regardless of who is on the mound, but word is that the A's are only letting Gray go 2 innings tonight.