Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Personnel
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Texas Rangers
We've basically got three really good hitting environments to choose from tonight, and if you're looking for raw upside, the Blue Jays at home and the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium are good places to turn (especially the latter). But we think it'd be wise to pay up for one of the top pitchers and doing so is going to make it really tough to fit in the Boston and Toronto bats you're going to want. Plus, the Rangers are in a nice spot against Jimmy Nelson, and Globe Life Park is arguably a superior all-around hitter's park compared to every other place in baseball outside of Coors Field. Nelson comes in with a 4.82 xFIP, thanks largely to a walk rate that's been climbing steadily throughout his MLB tenure. We think those free passes stand a good chance to burn him tonight against a Rangers team that has significant pop throughout the lineup and comes in as one of the best offenses in baseball over the last 30 days.
St. Louis Cardinals
I'd prefer not to go as chalky as Vegas' top two offenses on the slate, but the projection system wouldn't have it any other way tonight. The combination of the Cardinals' affordability with the chance to pick on a green starter is attractive and has our optimal lineups littered with St. Louis bats tonight. The Cardinals have been one of baseball's best offenses against RHP this season, ranking fifth in wRC+ and wOBA, and third in ISO. That's bad news for Reds rookie Robert Stephenson. The 23-year-old has a nice scouting report, but has been getting slapped around since being recalled earlier this month. He's given up 12 runs over his last three starts (11 IP), and has yielded seven home runs in 29 innings this season.
As alluded to above, we've got a handful of aces and choosing to pivot away from that group could leave your lineups at a significant deficit. But if that's the route you choose for tournaments (of if you're just looking for an affordable SP2), we think Moore is your guy tonight. Starting with the obvious, he'll be at home in one of baseball's best pitcher's parks, which should help limit the damage. Perhaps equally noteworthy is the fact that the Rockies have been pretty bad against LHP this season, especially when adjusted for park factors (25th in wRC+). Of course, Moore hasn't been very good this year either (4.69 xFIP), even since coming over from the Rays at the trading deadline, so there remains some substantial risk here. But if you're looking to catch some cheap lightning, he's got the ability to miss bats and the Rockies strike out in nearly 23% of PAs against lefties, so there's some respectable upside as well.
Yeah, he's going to cost you, but it's hardly enough to make us care. For one thing, his cost is really only approaching the prohibitive range on DraftKings, and we think you can find enough salary relief elsewhere to comfortably roster Trout and an elite starting pitcher. Meanwhile on FanDuel, his price just doesn't match the expected production or the talent. With all due respect to the mighty Gary Sanchez, Trout is, simply, the most potent offensive force in baseball. He leads MLB in wRC+, and is second to only David Ortiz in wOBA (.421) and OPS (1.001). And while we all acknowledge his greatness, it kinda feels like we haven't fully digested the fact that we're witnessing an all-time great here. Hyperbole be damned, if the past few days have taught me anything, it's that we shouldn't take transcendent talent for granted. Of course, the fact that Mike Trout rules (objectively, speaking), is only part of the reason he's showing up in this space right now. There's also Daniel Mengden. The Oakland rookie has shown flashes of viability this season, but brief glimpses of not being terrible don't exactly scare us in this matchup.
We're a big fan of Adams when he's coming in at these prices, and the matchup makes him a near automatic cash game play on FanDuel. A big part of the attraction is his home in the heart of a potent lineup. And while he can't match the ceiling that you'll get if you choose to spend big at 1B, for a guy with a career .349 wOBA and .198 ISO against RHP, we love the value. Note: Greg Garcia was hitting leadoff last night as Aledmys Diaz went to grieve with the family of his friend, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Carpenter was out with a finger injury. If Garcia is in again tonight and has a favorable spot in the order, we like him an awful lot.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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