Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 95 - 9/24/16

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UFC Fight Night 95 – where low level fighters get thrown to the wolves. Seriously, there are a few straight up maulings waiting to happen on this card, including in the main event where Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino should annihilate Lina Lansberg. There are three other fights that I expect to be total blowouts – it’s going to be an ugly night. From a DFS perspective, lineup construction is very challenging this week with several very high priced favorites. Where should you be looking? Let’s get to it.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

Cristiane Justino ($13,000)

Vegas Line: -1300
Finish Prop: -820
Career Record: 16-1 (1 NC)
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  7.69
Finishes: 14 KO / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 1^st Round TKO – Leslie Smith

We all know it’s obvious, but you just can’t write anything about this card without talking about Cyborg. Lina Lansberg, welcome to the UFC! You get to face the scariest woman on the planet. She’s -1300…-1300!...to win and a just as insane -820 to win inside the distance. Now for the other obvious, but worse, news. Cyborg will cost you $13,000 on DraftKings. I’m going to try my best to find a way to roster her and an almost guaranteed 100+ points but you will need to pivot down to the next tier of heavy favorites if you want any kind of lineup balance. The one thing I won’t do is stack Lansberg, which I’ve heard some people talk about, because I honestly think she has a good chance of putting up 1 point and a ceiling of maybe 10 points. It's an option, but it just doesn't fit my playing style. I’m about to write my prediction below and all I can think of is Mr. T, “My prediction, pain”.

Prediction: Cyborg – 1st Round TKO (I'm thinking about 17 seconds)

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Gilbert Burns ($9,800)

Vegas Line: -175
Finish Prop: +170
Career Record: 11-1
UFC Record: 4-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  2.01
Finishes: 3 KO / 7 Sub / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round Submission (Armbar) – Lukasz Sajewski

This usually isn’t the case, but there are very few fighters I like in this price range for this week. Gilbert Burns is the rare exception and you should tread lightly with him in cash games. However, Burns has plenty of upside in tournaments with a 91% finish rate in his pro career, including a pair of first-round wins in the UFC as well as a stoppage of Alex Oliviera. The problem is he is reliant on the submission and that means if he doesn’t get a stoppage this could be a very low scoring fight for the Brazilian. His opponent, Michael Prazares, has never been finished, but also doesn’t stop people on his own – so Burns should have plenty of time to look for a submission. I like Burns to get a stoppage but as I mentioned, nowhere near enough to trust him in cash games.

Prediction: Burns – 1^st Round Submission (D’Arce Choke)

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Luan Chagas ($8,800)

Vegas Line: -160
Finish Prop: +141
Career Record: 14-1-1
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Record In Last 5: 4-0-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.07
Finishes: 6 KO / 8 Sub / 10 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: Draw – Sergio Moares

Luan Chagas. The fighter I’ll be going to in order to make up the salary for at least one of the heavy favorites I need to roster. The odds for this fight are all over the place depending on the site you look at, but the one thing that stands out to me is the +141 inside the distance prop at a price tag of $8,800. Chagas made his UFC debut on short notice and worked his way to a draw, which was not a bad showing. Now he gets a full camp and you have to love that he has a 100% finish rate in his victories. On the other side of this fight is Erick Silva, a tough veteran who has been in the Octagon with some very high level fighters. I think this is a close fight but the value of Chagas is too high for me to ignore and he has an appealing ceiling at $8,800 – he’s a go in all formats for me.

Prediction: Chagas – 3^rd Round TKO

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