Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/23/16

Welcome to Friday baseball. There is one day game today with the Cardinals facing the Cubs in Chicago. We the purpose of the following picks we will be concentrating on the 14 game main slate. The pitching landscape is pretty awful tonight with Danny Duffy coming in as the most expensive option on both sites. This will make it a great night to roll with value pitchers and load up on the bats. Let's get started.

 

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PITCHER

James Paxton FD 7300 DK 8400
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 29.16 DK - 19.05

I wasn't kidding about dipping into the value pool at starting pitcher today. All three pitchers listed are below $10K on both sites which is going to open up the opportunity to roster a ton of top bats tonight. I lead off with Paxton who is a power throwing southpaw whose fastball averages 96.9 MPH and tops out around 100. It is surprising he doesn't have a higher K rate(8.26 K/9) but he has improved ten fold with his control walking under two batters per nine for the season. He is also producing just under a 50% ground ball rate and excellent 3.51 xFIP. He gets a tremendous matchup vs. a Twins team with the baseballs worst record and sit 29th in wOBA(.271) with a 26% K rate over the last 14 days. The Mariners are still have a ton to play for sitting just two back in the American League wildcard. Paxton is safe in all formats.

 

Drew Pomeranz FD 8700 DK 8700
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 36.57 DK - 24.12

Most people might fade Pomeranz tonight after back to back tire fires against the Yankees and Orioles. I won't be one of those people as I love the opportunity for Pomeranz to pick up a win and crush his value on both sites. Since joining the Red Sox he has been much better on the road and has has held opponents to two earned runs or less in four straight starts. For the season, he sits with an elite 9.86 K/9 rate and struck out 11 Rays when he faced them at the end of August. The Red Sox are red hot winning seven straight and eight of their last 10 games while pulling away in the East division. Look for the trend to continue in Tampa on Friday.

 

Alex Meyer FD 5700 DK 4000
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 23.77 DK - 15.83

If you wanna completely punt at pitcher tonight in GPP's Alex Meyer is much better than his salary. He doesn't have a stable floor as he has only gone into the 5th inning once in three starts with the Angels due to a lack of control as he has walked nine batters in 12.1 innings. He does have big upside for the price if he can harness the control. He is striking out well over a batter per inning and is coming off a start where he impressed limiting the Jays to two hits in five innings while striking out seven.  He will be facing the Astros who have had some quiet bats lately .284 wOBA, 77 wRC+ and 23.8% K rate over the last 14 days.

 

CATCHER

Victor Martinez FD 3400 DK 2900
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @DET
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.95

The catcher position is one that I don't really like the guys at the top. Gary Sanchez has struggled against left handed pitching and while Evan Gattis has been red hot I think he will be over owned due to the lack of options and recency bias.  My top option today is going to be Victor Martinez who some might avoid due to his latest injury that kept him out of the lineup in two straight games leading up to Thursday. He returned as a pinch hitter in the first game of the double header Thursday afternoon and hit a huge three run homer and is currently in the starting lineup for the night game where he has recorded a single and a walk. The price is right for a player with a high floor (.346 OBP) and a ton of upside(24 HR, 77 RBI).

 

Jacob Realmuto FD 2600 DK 4100
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.01 DK - 7.51

Realmuto is a it pricey on DraftKings where you could just pay another $200 or $300 for Lucroy or Posey but on FanDuel he shows up as a top value from a PTS/$ perspective. He is much stronger against right handed pitching(.328 average vs. a .220 vs. LH) and has even spent time in the leadoff spot and two hole throughout the year adding additional at bats and value.

 

 

FIRST BASE

Paul Goldschmidt FD 3900 DK 5600
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.25

For all the money we are going to save with pitchers and catchers tonight we better spend it somewhere. Paul Goldschmidt offers a ton of value for any format with a .413 OBP which gives him a very high floor. He may have seen a slight decline in power this year but has once again scored over 100 runs and is 10 RBI away from 100 plateau. Goldy has also produced 27 stolen bases which obliterated his career high of 21 set just last year. He is also coming in red hot with three home runs in his last two games and has hits in eight of his last 10. He is an elite play in any format on both sites.

 

Chris Davis FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.15 DK - 10.59

Crush Davis once again ranks very highly on the projection system on both sites due to his enormous power potential and favorable matchup. I am convinced that if the Diamondbacks were actually in a playoff race there is no way they would still be throwing Shelby Miller out to the wolves every five days. He hasn't pitched into the 7th inning since mid June and has surrendered four or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts elevating his ERA to 6.75 for the season. Davis is definitely not safe for cash games as he strikes out 33% of time but comes in with huge upside with 38 home runs,82 RBI and 94 runs scored.

 

Adam Lind FD 2400 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.51

Lind is an excellent punt play on FanDuel at just $2,400 if you need the savings at the position. He gets a nice positive park shift going from Safeco Field to Target Field and comes in on a bit of a hot streak with hits in six of his last seven games including a two home run effort against the Rangers. The matchup lines up well as Kyle Gibson struggles against left handed batters(.386 wOBA, 33.2% hard contact and under 6K/9 against LH batters) and Lind's power comes against right handed pitching where he has recorded 19 of his 20 home runs with a .214 Isolated Power.

 

 

 

SECOND BASE

Robinson Cano FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.24 DK - 9.51

Cano has been an elite player at the position all season as he is back to putting up big power numbers. Coming into tonight he has recorded 33 home runs, 90 RBI  and 95 runs scored, which are his highest totals by far since becoming a Mariner in 2014. He has been struggling in September hitting just .224 but has played 13 of 19 games at home in Safeco where  his season average sits 40 points lower. He and the Mariners, especially the lefties get a great matchup against Gibson tonight in Target Field.

 

Jason Kipnis FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.64

Kipnis is another high end bat at second base tonight that gets a favorable matchup. Miguel Gonzalez doesn't give up much in terms of the long ball but sits with a 4.65 xFIP this season while striking out less than 6.5 batters per nine. This should help Kipnis out tonight who has been striking out 19% of the time in September which has lead to a low .239 average. He has been getting on base a .357 clip in the month which is going to give him plenty of opportunities to hit value on Friday night.

 

Dee Gordon FD 2500 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.46 DK - 9.1

The price on FanDuel continues to sit in the mid $2K range on FanDuel making Gordon a viable punt play for tournaments on Friday night. He has been ice cold with the bat in September hitting just .215 but has recorded eight runs and eight stolen bases hitting out of the leadoff spot. The Marlins are in a great spot tonight to score some runs against Matt Wisler and his 4.71 xFIP which gives Gordon excellent run scoring value if he can get on base.

 

 

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.61

Despite his high end price tag, Carlos Correa shows up as a top PTS/$ value play on both sites. He hits in the very favorable cleanup spot for the young Astros and provides a fantastic combination of power and speed. Combine that with an above average OBP(.362) and he projects as a top play on a day to day basis. He appears to be heating at the right time with hits in five of his last six games including three multi hit efforts. It's exactly what the doctor ordered as the Astros sit just one game back of the wildcard.

 

 

Francisco Lindor FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.97

The Indians are in a great spot on Friday as they are early -185 favorites in a game with a 8.5 projected total. Unless something dramatic changes you will most likely see them in the stacks article coming out later today. If you want to go contrarian at shortstop, Lindor is in a great spot to snap out of his latest slump(2 hits in last 12 games). He still found a way to contribute last night with two walks, a stolen base and two runs scored and has been terrific over the course of the season with a .306 average and .354 on base percentage.

 

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.45 DK - 7.38

Looking for consistency at an affordable price? I sound like a used car salesmen and kinda am with the veteran Cabrera who is posting some decent numbers in his 10th MLB season(21 HR, 52 RBI, 61 runs). Back to the consistency. Coming into tonight he has recorded a hit in 17 of his last 20 games pushing his second half average up to .309 which is close to 60 points higher than the first half. The Mets are currently in extra innings as i write this and sit in a three way tie for the NL wildcard spots and have everything to play for down the stretch. Look for another big effort from Cabrera tonight.

THIRD BASE

Adrian Beltre FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.8

Beltre has been great all year and has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet over the last 14 days slashing .373/.407/.667 with four home runs and a 185 wRC+. Luckily for us DFSers his price never seems to catch up as he continues to sit in the low end of the mid tier on both sites. I usually don't mind fading a hot player if his price has reached its peak but Beltre's is nowhere near that and he will continue to be an elite play until he cools off or the price takes a big jump. Play him in any format with confidence.

 

 

Manny Machado FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.89
Pedro Alvarez FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.36 DK - 10.18

After getting swept in a four game series to the Red Sox the Orioles now sit in a tie for the second wildcard spot. They are going to need a big effort this weekend in an inter-league series vs. the Diamondbacks who hold the leagues worst team ERA(5.19).  If they are turn things around they will need their center piece to get hot. After going hitless in the first three games against the Red Sox he finished the series off with a pair of hits and run scored. While he has completely ditched the stealing he provides a ton of power with 36 HR, 93 RBI and 102 runs scored on the season.

Alvarez would be the contrarian play at the position with most people siding with Machado hitting out of the three hole while Alvarez hits down in the six and seven spot. He is always a GPP consideration when facing weak right handed pitching and has hit 20 of his 21 home runs against rigthies with a .268 Isolated Power number. They will get to face Shelby Miller who has disappointed in his first season with the D Backs with a 2-12 record, 6.90 ERA and 5.08 xFIP. Look for the Orioles to get back on track in a big way on Friday.

OUTFIELD

Andrew McCutchen FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @PIT
FD - 12 DK - 9.46

Looking at the projections for both sites on Friday, Andrew McCutchen shows up right at the top on a PTS/$ basis. He comes in blazing hot with hits in 10 straight games including six multi hit efforts with four doubles and two home runs. It has been a long season for McCutchen and due to his horrendous start we get him at a tremendous price down the stretch. Take advantage before the playoffs start and he most likely at home watching on TV.
Mark Trumbo FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.3

I am seriously not going to stop picking on Shelby Miller and the Diamondbacks tonight. In four starts since returning to the rotation Miller has allowed 14 earned runs in just 20.2 innings and is only striking out just over five batters per nine. Trumbo may not be the safest option as he strikes out a ton(25.6%) but like his teammate Davis comes with huge upside and leads the majors with 43 home runs on the season. Trumbo also comes with some nice reverse splits with a .375 wOBA, 134 wRC+ and .286 ISO against right handed pitching.

 

Josh Reddick FD 2700 DK 3100
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.99 DK - 7.8

After an incredibly painful first month with the Dodgers where he hit .170, Reddick has heated up down the stretch slashing .413/.449/.565 with a 180 wRC+ in the month of September.  He is a platoon player which is great for DFS as his price sticks in a very affordable spot night after night. So far in 2016 he has crushed right handed pitching with a .368 wOBA and 136 wRC+ and while the matchup vs. Gray isn't elite the price is hard to beat.

 

 

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