Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/21/16

Welcome back to another day of daily fantasy baseball with DFSR. Today we have another split slate with three early and 12 evening games. We are going to concentrate on the main slate for the purpose of this article but I can definitely see the merit in throwing in a few Rockies or Cardinals stacks in Coors Field where the early Vegas Total sits at a sky high 12.5 runs.

In case you didn’t notice, we just released our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.

You can grab a free trial to test out yourself.

PITCHER

Max Scherzer FD 11100 DK 13300
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @MIA
FD - 38.51 DK - 25.12

Scherzer has been elite all year and has been the beneficiary of an excellent fantasy schedule down the stretch with six of his last seven matchups against non playoff teams. He gets another top matchup tonight against the Marlins who rank 25th in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA over the last 14 days and rank 21st overall in wRC+ against right handed pitching this season. They strike out less than 20% of the time but don't face a Max Scherzer everyday. Max comes with an elite 11.06 K/9 rate and has really limited the power recently giving up just one home run in his last six starts. Look for Scherzer for to dominate on Wednesday night.
Chris Sale FD 11000 DK 14000
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 38.96 DK - 25.72

Reaching the breaking point in terms of price on DraftKings but really the cash game play at least on FanDuel. Sale's been an animal of late of the White Sox. He's gone at least 8 innings in four of his last 6 starts. I say "at least" because he's gone complete games in two of them. Dude's been a beast, striking out 58 batters over his last 50 innings and staying super efficient. The White Sox are content letting him go way long in games (above 110 pitches like clockwork) and that kind of innings safety is almost unheard of. He's a solid -160 favorite tomorrow against a weak-hitting Phillies team. Again, the DK price is probably out of bounds, but FD leaves plenty of room for bats.

Zack Greinke FD 9700 DK 8300
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 35.77 DK - 23.86

It has been a very interesting first season in Diamondback colors for Zach Greinke. At times he has shown signs of the brilliance the D Backs expected when they paid him mega dollars. He has also shown the ability to completely implode as he has given up seven earned runs or more in four starts. The uncertainty of knowing whether we are going to get the good Greinke or the bad Greinke leaves him as a GPP play only tonight but I have a feeling it will be the Greinke we all like to see for fantasy. He gets an elite matchup vs. the Padres who rank dead last in wRC+ and and wOBA against right handed pitching while striking out 24.8% of the time. The price is definitely in a favorable spot on DraftKings where he is at a season low salary of $7,500.

John Lackey FD 9200 DK 8800
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CHC
FD - 39.33 DK - 25.68

The Cubs have dominated all year and with 95 wins have already clinched their division and close to clinching the National League. John Lackey has been a big contributor with nine wins and a career high 8.83 K/9 rate. He has also been much better at home with a 2.62 ERA while holding opponents to a .201 average. On Wednesday he faces a Reds team that sits in the basement of the entire league and appears to have packed it in losing six of their last seven games scoring just 21 runs. He should probably be limited to cash games as the Cubs aren't likely to extend his pitch count very far with playoffs right around the corner but the floor is very high for the price under $10K on both sites.

CATCHER

Willson Contreras FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.5 DK - 7.56

The catcher position is pretty thin tonight but the projections have pegged Contreras as a top value play from a PTS/$ perspective. He cooled off in the second half after tearing it up early and often after Kyle Schwarber went down to injury. He has been better against southpaws but gets a good matchup on Wednesday. He will be facing rookie Robert Stephenson who has struggled in his first trip to the big leagues. He has surrendered eight earned runs over his last 2 starts and while he has high K upside he struggles with control. Contreras is coming in with hits in three straight including a home run last game against the Reds. Look for him to hit value once again today.

Wilson Ramos FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.64

Ramos has put up career high numbers across the board in 2016 and has been one of the top catchers in baseball. He has slowly climbed up the batting order and has spent the last couple games hitting out of the four and five hole for the Nationals. He is coming in on a hot streak with hits in three straight and six of his last seven games including a home run and 5 RBI. The price is right on both sites in a matchup vs. Tom Koehler who has just an average K rate(7.48 K/9) but struggles big time with control walking two or more in five straight starts.

FIRST BASE

Anthony Rizzo FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.59

After cooling off a bit in the second half Anthony Rizzo is starting to heat up once again right in time for the post season. He is hitting just .283 in the  month of September but is getting on base at a .377 clip and has added five home runs and a 155 wRC+. He is an elite player explaining why only David Ortiz is more expensive at the position but the upside is tremendous and he carries double dong potential into any game against a non elite right handed pitcher.
Chris Davis FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - BOS (Buchholz) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.27 DK - 9.92

Crush Davis is definitely not a consistent cash game option with a sky high 32.8% K rate this season, but he comes with immense upside as he sits in the Top 5 in home runs(38) on the season with 82 RBI and 94 runs scored. He has always been stronger against right handed pitching and has hit 30 of his home runs against them with a .281 Isolated Power on the  season. He gets a matchup vs. Clay Buchholz who has bounced around between the rotation and bullpen all season due to his inconsistency and 5.41 xFIP. He strikes out under six batters per nine while walking over 3.5 per nine which is not going to be a strong formula against a divisional rival battling you for a playoff spot in September. Look for a big game from Davis and the Orioles.

James Loney FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL (Weber) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.68 DK - 7.59

If you are looking to punt at the position to try and roster two stud aces on DraftKings or a bunch of big bats take a close look at James Loney. He is a platoon player who is much stronger against right handed pitching with a .286 average on the season and has been red hot in September. In 15 games this month he has a terrific .333/.391/.524 slash line with a a 142 wRC+. At value pricing on both sites it won't take much for him to hit value tonight.

SECOND BASE

Rougned Odor FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.69

In his third season in the big leagues Odor has broken out in a big way. Since being moved out of the leadoff spot and into the five hole(for the most part) Odor has hit 24 of his 31 home runs with 60 RBI and has still scored 56 runs along the way. The floor may be a bit risky with a low .301 OBP but the upside is for real and he adds some sneaky speed with 14 steals in 2016.

Scooter Gennett FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - PIT (Kuhl) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.52

Gennett has been better in the second half hitting .278 and has been one of the  hottest hitters in baseball since the calendar flipped to September. In 16 games this games this month he has recorded a hit in each start and is slashing a cool .327/.377/.633 with three home runs and a 163 wRC+. At his current price on both sites he is a safe play in any format Wednesday night.

SHORTSTOP

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Weber) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.4

With an affordable price on both sites Cabrera is a terrific option in any format tonight. That is weird to considering he has never been know as a model of consistency. I wouldn't have said these nice things about him in the first half but with a .299 average and .345 OBP in the second half he looks to have a very nice floor. He also provides upside with a 37% hard contact rate for the season which has resulted in his highest HR total(20) since the 2011 season where he hit 25 for the Indians. He is a near must play tonight vs. Weber and the Braves.

Addison Russell FD 2500 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.93

Stacking the Cubs or hand picking a few of them is definitely a favorite play of the optimizer today and for good reason. Robert Stephenson is not yet MLB starting pitcher material with a 3.91 BB/9 rate and 5.32 xFIP. Russell has been hitting in the five spot for most of the month and has been slashing a steady .283/.333/.491 with two home runs, 7 RBI and 8 runs scored. He is in play in all formats on FanDuel at $2,500 but  I would much rather have Cabrera at a $500 discount on DraftKings on a night where saving will be at a premium.

THIRD BASE

Jose Reyes FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Weber) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.08 DK - 8.94

Pretty much as long as he’s hitting out of the leadoff spot he’s a viable fantasy option even though he’s clearly a well-diminished actual talent at this point. That being said, he’s been fine enough in his return to the Mets with a mid .700’s OPS and enough speed to keep the floor high if he can get on base. It’s the latter that’s an issue for Jose as dude never did like to walk. But I love the FD price especially well below $3K and even the DK salary leaves some room for other parts of your lineup.

Pedro Alvarez FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - BOS (Buchholz) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.52 DK - 9.55

It can be tough living through the Pedro Alvarez lean times as he gives the sense of a “feast or famine” type of play. There are a heck of a lot of strikeouts in his profile that can lead to a lot of frustration when you roster him. He’s mostly a two-true-outcome type of guy because the power is also very real. You’d like him to take just a few more walks and he’ll get the chance against Clay Buchholz who’s an enigma wrapped up in a Boston uniform. You never know what you’ll get out of the latter, but I don’t think he’s a favorite to mow through this Oriole lineup.

Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.62

We’ve been down the “Robert Stephenson Sucks” path already a couple of times, but here’s just one more dude to target in those Cubs’ stacks. Bryant’s putting up close to MVP-like numbers this season with a .950 OPS thanks to a whopping 37 dongers. Dude’s been amazing and hitting around the top of this Cubs’ order has him in play almost every night. Still very affordable considering his output, I especially love the multi-position eligibility on DK.

OUTFIELD

Carlos Gomez FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.21 DK - 8.52

Carlos Beltran FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.66

The Rangers have shifted around the top of the batting order a ton this year whether it was for call-ups, trades, demotions or a little of everything. But they seem to have found their guy in Gomez who, in just 24 games, has 6 home runs and a .358 OBP. Sure, there’s some luck involved with that kind of production but the spot in the batting order appears to be for good. We just love the plate appearance expectation on the guy for these prices.

Meanwhile Beltran continues to Beltran with a mid .800’s OPS between two teams this year and a .217 ISO. They’ll both face Jered Weaver who somehow still has a major league pitching gig with a 5.73 xFIP and 5.07 K/9. Those numbers are beyond gross and the Rangers could put up a bunch of runs.

Jay Bruce FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - ATL (Weber) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.43 DK - 8.89

Ryan Weber isn’t much of a K guy and that’s Bruce’s primary weakness in his profile. He’s K-ing at a 22% clip this season which is actually down about 15% from his career averages. That’s helped him get some of those power numbers back up and the OPS is closing in on .800. The walks are an issue, but I like his chances at making contact against a guy like Weber in this matchup.

Adam Jones FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS (Buchholz) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.71

Hyun-soo Kim FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - BOS (Buchholz) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.96

I’m going to assume we are getting the bad Clay in this matchup and that’s why I’m fine rostering the Orioles. I see them more as GPP plays considering you can get good Clay every once awhile. But both Kim and Jones are coming cheap all around if they’re hitting 1-2 in the lineup.

Be sure to get a copy of our free eBook on setting Weekly DFS NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings!

In case you didn’t notice, we just released our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.

You can grab a free trial to test out yourself.