Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta throws the final pitch of a no-hitter to Cincinnati Reds' Eugenio Suarez in a baseball game Thursday, April 21, 2016, in Cincinnati. The Cubs won 16-0. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
Welcome to Saturday baseball! We have a split day on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!
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Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 38.68 DK - 24.99
Jake Arrieta is going to start us off here at pitcher and in the early slate, he is really the only guy I am willing to play in cash games He has a tremendous match up and everything else is looking to line up in this start. While Arrieta has had a rough patch as of late, his numbers are still tremendous and there is no debated whether or not he is elite. The Brewers are one of the absolute worst teams in the league against righties and strikeout over 25% of the time, which is the highest in the majors. The game will take place in Wrigley Field, which is a very park factor neutral spot. Though he is expensive on both sites, I am willing to pay for him due to the cash game safety and tournament upside. It might cost you a couple bucks, but it will be worth it in the end.
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @SF
FD - 31.38 DK - 20.89
On the late slate, the options are less appealing, which is leaving us with Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija and the Giants will be facing off with the St. Louis Cardinals, who have been decent against right handed pitching on the year. That being said, they have been cold of late and righties have been dominating them. Samardzija has been very good so far in 2016 as evident by his sub .300 wOBA against right handed batters. Aside from the spectacular wOBA, he has held peripherals and batted ball rates that support all of his baseline stats. While the match up isn't the best, the park and scenario should combine to make Samardzija a tremendous play. While expensive on DK, he is uber cheap on FanDuel and is almost a must consider for tournaments.
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Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.67 DK - 7.7
The Cubs are in a tremendous spot today and they are our favorite offense of the early slate, by far. Miguel Montero played yesterday and will likely sit out today, which mean Contreras should be in there. Contreras has hit righties extremely well since entering with league with a .337 wOBA. Wrigley Field is a very neutral park that is heavily dependent on the wind, which is close to non existent as of now. Keep an eye out for anything that could change there and edit your lineups accordingly. Contreras is a viable option in both cash games and tournaments, and is fairly priced around the industry. Make sure he is in the lineup though, because the Cubs have 3 different guy they throw out there.
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.83 DK - 8.97
The Dodgers are basically the Cubs of the "main" or late slate. They are facing off with a horrible pitcher that is projected to get destroyed. Grandal in particular is one of the best hitting catchers in the league, especially against righties. Since 2014, Grandal has sported a .341 wOBA against righties while almost all of his power came from the left side of the plate. The game will be played in Chase Field, which is the 2nd best park in the league for left handed power bats. You are going to see a whole bunch of Dodgers in this article, so get used to it. They are on the road in a great ballpark in a match up with guy that has given up close to a .400 wOBA against lefties.
Opponent - NYY (Mitchell) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.29
Hanley Ramirez has been on a pretty good streak as of late and will look to continue it here against Bryan Mitchell and the Yankees. Bryan Mitchell has been horrible against both lefties and righties, though his .351 wOBA against righties stands out here. That putrid number is backed up by peripherals and they suggest that it is accurate. With this game being played in Fenway Park, Ramirez has a fantastic chance to hit a homer. While Hanley hits lefties better than righties, his numbers against righties are still very good. Although he is way too expensive on DraftKings, he is very fairly priced on FanDuel and makes for a great play in all formats.
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.9 DK - 9.79
Back to the Dodgers. A-Gon is still one of the bigger hitters in the lineup, and always has the upside to win you a tournament. While he is expensive on DraftKings, he is very fairly priced on FanDuel and I am comfortable with him in both cash games and tournaments. Dating back to the start of 2015, Gonzalez has sported a .351 wOBA against righties with peripherals and batted ball rates to back it up. We will touch on Shelby Miller in a bit, but for now, just know that he is a righty that has been one of the worst pitchers in the league against left handed hitting.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.33
We are going to go back to the Cubs for the early slate with Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is a guy I love to roster as he very rarely gets a goose egg. He finds a way to constantly get on base and score runs, which is all we need in cash games However in tournaments, Zobrist occasionally breaks out the power bat and changes the whole approach. I could see that today against Zach Davies, who throw a lot of low and away fastball and sliders. While he may be a bit too hefty on DK, his price on FanDuel is ideal and I will have 100% exposure in my early set of games over there. We will touch on Davies in a bit, but just know that he is a right handed youngster that struggles against both sides of the play, though he is pitiful against lefties.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 8.81 DK - 8.48
First of all, let me be clear by saying this is a FanDuel specific recommendation. Dee Gordon is $2500 on FanDuel. Dee Gordon has stole 5 bases over the last 2 nights. Dee Gordon is back. The Marlins will be facing off with Jeremy Hellickson, a right handed tosser that has solidified himself as a very average pitcher. He has trouble against lefties and has also struggled holding runners in the past. While the ballpark is good for hitters, it doesn't really mater here as Gordon is far from reliant on power of any kind. I expect Gordon to get on base a few times and take off as soon as he does.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.07
Yep, another Cub. And there are a few more after this. Russell is one of the best plays at shortstop day in and day out due to the sheer fact that he is on the Cubs. When in that lineup, there is constant production opportunity and it be comes hard to have a bad game when people are getting on base in front of you. Russell has sported a .346 wOBA against righties to go along with a 33.2% hard contact rate. Davies on the other hand, has given up a +1.30 HR/9 against righties so far in 2016. Like mentioned, the ballpark is very dependent and we will know more later in the day.
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.9 DK - 10.08
My favorite play on the slate, Corey Seager. Seager is my absolute favorite play on the main slate, and is probably my favorite option of the whole day. The Dodgers are obviously a big target of mine, and Corey Seager is the beating heart to the offense. Seager has mashed righties on the season with a near .400 wOBA to go along with a fantastic line drive and hard contact rate. The opposing pitcher Shelby Miller is a guy that has been absolutely putrid against lefties for a while now. Dating back to the start of 2015, Miller has given up a .397 wOBA to lefties, which is as bad as it gets. He has been sent down numerous times and has still not figured it out against lefties. Seager is my top option on the slate and I am a big fan of him in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 14.07 DK - 10.81
Kris Bryant, a guy that seems to find the list almost anytime I am atasked with writing p picks for the day. But hey, how can you dislike the guy? He goes out every single day and dominates good pitching, bad pitching and everything in-between. Bryant has demolished right handed pitching so far in 2016 with a .392 wOBA that is backed up by some crazy peripherals and batted ball rates. THe opposing pitcher, Davies, is someone we should be looking to pick on. In almost 150 innings, Davies has actually held a very good set of wOBA's, BUT you have to look a little bit deeper. With a 4.40 xFIP, 33.8% hard contact rate and a 2.33 BB/9. Bryant is my pick for homer of the day and I am pretty confident in the selection.
Opponent - SD (Jackson) Park - @COL
FD - 16.46 DK - 12.47
The Rockies have o be in play here against Edwin Jackson and the Colorado Rockies. While this is the first bat I mentioned, the entire team is in a great spot for a tournament stack. While we tend to target Arenado against lefties, he is still one of the best hitters in baseball when he is in Coors Field against a righty. So far in 2016, Arenado has sported a .372 wOBA that is backed up by numerous peripherals and batted ball rates. While Edwin Jackson has been decent, his underlying stats suggest some impending regression. With Jackson and his style of pitching, I expect him to struggle mightily tonight. The Rockies are a team you will want exposure to and Arenado is a great way to do that.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.19 DK - 8.36
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.63
Let's just get the Cubbies out of the way. We are looking at a combo here of Jorge Soler and Jason Heyward. Both of these guys have hit righties better than lefties, and Heyward in particular has been very good against righties as of late. Davies, as mentioned more than a few times, is a guy that gives up a ton of homers and lacks in the strikeout department. The one big problem here is the price tag on Soler on DK. Both guys on all of the other sites are fairly priced and I would look to target the guys there. If I had to pick 1, I would go with the guy who ends up being higher in the batting order.
Opponent - NYY (Mitchell) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.81 DK - 9.3
We are going to touch back on the Red Sox here and take a look at Jackie Bradley Jr. I mentioned that Mitchell is bad against righties, but he is even worse against lefties. Over the past 2 seasons, Mitchell has sported a putrid .386 wOBA that is backed up by some horrible peripherals such as a 34.5% hard contact rate. Depending on what spot Bradley ends up in, he will be my top tournament option in the board. If he is in the top half of the lineup, I will have a ton of exposure and look for him to have a huge game. Mitchell throws a lot of offspeed, which Bradley feasts on. Like most guys, he is insanely expensive on DraftKings and very fairly priced on FanDuel, which means we like him over there more.
Opponent - SD (Jackson) Park - @COL
FD - 16.7 DK - 12.83
CarGo is a guy that is in the write up ever single time a right handed is pitching in Coors Field. That's just how it is. Gonzalez has been one of the best hitters in the league against righties for a while now and this season has been no different. While Jackson is decent against righties, his big weakness is with lefties as evident by his lacking .341 wOBA. Gonzalez has been swinging the bat pretty well as of late and I am going to double down on my homer pick of the night. Gonzalez and Bryant are both going to end up hitting a dinger or 5 tonight.
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.75 DK - 9.96
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.55 DK - 8.97
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.95 DK - 7.09
Ya, kind of a cop out. But hey, they are all in play so why not put them all up here. They are listed in my order from favorite to least favorite, with Reddick leading it off. All 3 of these guys have hit righties very well, with wOBA's over .340 All 3 of these guys are expensive on DraftKings, but very cheap on FanDuel. Because of that, I will look to get my Dodgers exposure on FanDuel and focus on a team that is a bit cheaper on DraftKings. Like I mentioned a bunch of times, Shelby Miller is atrocious and we need to take advantage of that.
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View Comments
Zach Davies is actually not that bad. A quick look at his stats will show that he has actually outperformed Jake Arrietta over the last month. Rizzo or Zobrist may end up with a homer, but no way should you go all-in with Cubs. The Nationals have a much better match-up in the early slate. So yes, the one day that he is not written up on here Bryce Harper is a good play today.