Welcome to our daily article breaking down some of the other stacking targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and pitching breakdown but here we will look at other plays to consider if you're trying to win big in a large tournament.
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Colorado Rockies vs. Christian Friederich (Padres)
Park - Coors Field
Another series at Coors means another opportunity late in the season to jump on some huge upside. I lean the home team tonight who have a largest team run projection(6.74) which is almost a full run more than the Red Sox, the second highest projected team on the day. The will be facing struggling southpaw Christian Friedrich who has been very inconsistent due to a lack of control(3.71 BB/9) and below average strikeout rate(6.93 K/9). He has been decent at limiting the home runs(10.1% HR/FB rate) and shut down the Rockies last time he faced them in Coors but lightning is very unlikely to strike in the same spot twice. Load up on the Rockies tonight.
Elite Plays - Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ Lemahieu, Carlos Gonzalez
Value Plays - David Dahl, Nick Hundley or Tom Murphy, Mark Reynolds
Boston Red Sox vs. Luis Cessa (Yankees)
Park - Fenway Park
Normally we only see one game with a double digit Vegas total. This is not the case today as the Red Sox/Yankees game is projected for an even 10 runs with the Red Sox getting the bulk of the love with a 5.65 team projection. They own the leagues top offense and are the only team to score 800+ runs so far this season. They also rank 1st in wOBA(.351), wRC+(115) and slugging %(.473) against right handed pitching and get a beauty matchup today. They will go up against Luis Cessa who has been less than impressive since joining the Yankees rotation near the end of August. In five starts he has struck out less than seven batters per nine and pitched to a 4.18 xFIP. Cessa has also seen his HR/FB rate sky rocket lately giving up eight home run sin his last four starts. Look for the Red Sox to jump all over him early and often as they try to hold on to the division down the stretch.
Elite Plays - David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts
Value Plays - Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw
Texas Rangers vs. Kendall Graveman (Athletics)
Park - Globe Life Park in Arlington
If you can somehow sweat fading the Rockies and Red Sox and want to get some lower ownership with your tournament stack tonight take a shot with the Rangers. They made some big moves at the trade deadline and now sit with a 8.5 game lead in the American League West division and destined for the playoffs. They are a very consistent team that sits 10th in wOBA(.325) and 8th in ISO(.177) against right handed pitching. They also get one of the best matchups of the day against Kendall Graveman. Since the beginning of August he has been very up and down striking out less than 4.5 batters per nine while pitching to a 4.30 xFIP. He is coming off his worst start of the season giving up 12 hits and eight earned runs to the Mariners while striking out just one batter and walking three. I don't see things gettign any better for Graveman today against the Rangers.
Elite Plays - Adrian Beltre, Roughned Odor, Ian Desmond, Jonathan Lucroy
Value Plays - Carlos Gomez, Nomar Mazara
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