Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, Sunday, May 15, 2016, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Welcome back for another day of daily fantasy baseball with DFSR. The season is winding down with just over two weeks remaining and the intensity is reaching playoff levels with so many teams in the hunt. Today we have a split slate with five early and 10 evening games giving us a ton of options on both slates starting with strong pitching. Let's dig in.
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Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SF
FD - 46.68 DK - 30.62
Headlining the early slate is MadBum pitching at home with the Giants coming in as huge -290 favorites. The park is in his favor and Bumgarner has been much better at home with a 1.91 ERA while limiting opponents to a .182 average. While most of his numbers are on par for his career he is striking out a career high 10.19 batters per nine. The K rate should get a boost today against the Padres who strikeout more(25.4%) than any other team against left handed pitching. You might have trouble paying up for him in cash games on DraftKings today at a price north of $13K but he is safe in all formats on FanDuel.
Evening Slate
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 36.08 DK - 23.64
After one of his worst starts of the year Fernandez rebounded in big way limiting the Dodgers to three hits in seven innings while striking out a season high 14 batters. It pushed his already league leading K/9 rate to 12.80 for the season, 1.5 strikeouts per nine more than Robbie Ray in second in the category. He also leads the league with an elite 2.48 xFIP in 27 starts and gets a great matchup on Wednesday night. He faces the Braves who hold the National League's worst record(2nd worst overall) and rank 26th in wOBA(.306) and 29th in ISO(.137) against right handed pitching. He has the highest floor and ceiling of any pitcher today.
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @DET
FD - 31.14 DK - 20.27
If you are GPP hunting today it may be wise to take a shot on a few lineups with Anibal Sanchez. His rock bottom price helps get you to Fernandez, Bumgarner or Kershaw and the Tigers are sizable -170 favorites at home Wednesday night. He is strictly a GPP play with a 4.73 xFIP going up against the Twins who rank 13th in wOBA(.319) against right handed pitching but are striking out at a 25.4% rate over the past 14 days.
Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SF
FD - 11.55 DK - 8.92
Posey hasn't been as elite as he has been in recent years but you also don't have to pay those elite prices anymore. He enters a good situation this afternoon in a matchup the Padres. Opposing pitcher Luis Perdomo has struggled lately giving up 17 hits and nine earned runs over his last two starts pushing his season ERA to 5.89 while giving up a 19.6% HR/FB rate. Not only does he strike out less than seven batters per nine, he also walks over three which gives Posey a high floor with his 10.7% walk rate and .363 OBP for the season.
Evening Slate
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @DET
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.07
Looking at the PTS/$ values tonight VMart leads the way on both sites. He hits in a very favorable cleanup spot for the Tigers who are projected for close to 5.5 runs at home tonight. Martinez has been consistent lately with hits in six of his last seven games with a 137 wRC+ and he has very neutral splits. He has best suited for cash games in the second half as the power has fallen off but gets a boost vs. Duffey who has been hit hard in the second half giving up a 36.7% hard contact rate and a 7.97 ERA.
Early Slate
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.81
As I normally do on these smaller early slates I will avoid cash games and stick to the tournaments. My core is going to be built around Bumgarner today meaning a deep dive into the value bucket. It starts with Zimmerman at first base who comes in under $3K on both sites due to his underwhelming numbers this season. He still provides some pop in his bat and is coming in with hits in two straight games. The matchup is favorable as Gsellman has been less than impressive giving up nine eared runs in his first three starts while walking over three batters per nine.
Evening Slate
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @DET
FD - 14.44 DK - 10.99
The first base position is absolutely loaded tonight making it a prime spot to pay up for your hitting. Miggy has seen a slight dip in the average and on base percentage from years past but has found the power stroke with 32 home runs this season, his highest total since 2013. The bulk of the production has come in the second half as Miggy has been producing at an elite level with a .427 wOBA, 171 wRC+, and .277 Isolated Power. He is a safe play in all formats and elite option as the core of a Tigers stack.
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.63
Abreu is another elite option at the position that is best utilized on FanDuel where he comes at a $600 discount from Miggy and the 12th most expensive option tonight. After a very slow first half Abreu has come on strong with a .401 wOBA, 152 wRC+ and a big 5% increase in his hard contact rate in the second half. He draws a matchup with Josh Tomlin who fell apart in August giving up 34 earned runs in just 26.2 innings pitched with a 32.3% HR/FB rate. After an appearance out of the bullpen he will get another start which favors the home team in US Cellular which favors the long ball.
Early Slate
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.84
Murphy has been destroying National League East pitching over the last two weeks slashing .380/.429/.520 with a 151 wRC+ against the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. He will get yet another crack at weak pitching tonight against Gsellman who has been less than impressive in his first three starts walking over three batters per nine with a 4.76 ERA.Look for the Nats to take full advantage with their bats today. Murphy is best used in a GPP as his price is is quite high on both sites if you are trying to fit Bumgarner or Kershaw in your lineup.
Evening Slate
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.23 DK - 8.07
If you are looking for a model of consistency turn your attention to Dustin Pedroia. He hits leadoff for the best offensive team in baseball(802 runs scored) and while he has little upside in the way of power or speed he sits Top 10 in most other offensive categories at the position. Since being moved to the leadoff spot back on August 10th Pedroia has provided huge value slashing .447/. 470/.528 with a 169 wRC+ in 30 games. He is one of the safest options at any position today.
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.66
Gennett ranks right up there at the top of the PTS/$ value plays today on both sites. His salary relief will definitely come in handy when trying to roster Jose Fernandez or Yu Darvish tonight and he has been playing well lately. Scooter has recorded a hit in eight straight starts for the Brewers and is close to a must play in Great American Small Park if he is back int eh two hole on Wednesday night.
Early Slate
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.75
Overall the Blue Jays offense has gone ice cold at the worst time of the season. They rank right near the bottom over the last 14 days but there have been signs of it turning around. One has been the play of Troy Tulowitzki who shook off some early injuries and a slow first half and has been excellent down the stretch. In the month of September he has been hitting .333 while getting on base at a .389 clip. If the Jays can start to generate some base runners ahead of Tulo the upside is through the roof. He is only available on the all day slate on FanDuel today.
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SF
FD - 9.83 DK - 7.8
Crawford is another nice value play in the early slate, safe in all formats on both sites. He has been hitting in the middle of the order yet his salary hasn't caught up yet and has actually dropped to its lowest point since September 4th on DraftKings. He gets a good matchup vs. Perdomo who has struggled giving up nine earned runs in his last two starts while Crawford has been hot lately with hits in four straight and eight of his last 10 starts.
Evening Slate
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.12 DK - 7.54
The best way to find value on any given day is too look for a game with a high total and a team who has moved a decent hitter up the lineup. This is the case today with Chris Owings should he be back in the two hole once again for the Diamondbacks. He has now made eight straight starts hitting second recording a hit in seven of those starts with five runs scored and a stolen base. Owings has been better going up against left handed pitching but on a slate where we need max value to get to the elite pitching we won't be picky with splits.
Early Slate
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 11.94 DK - 9.17
His price took a big drop especially on DraftKings where he is the 3rd ranked in salary on a short four game slate. He is the favorite to win the National League MVP award after putting together an elite season with a .298/.393/.569 slash line with 37 HR, 94 RBI and 113 runs scored with still two weeks left in the season. The matchup isn't the best against Carlos Martinez which could leave Bryant lower owned which would be a rare thing on a small slate.
Evening Slate
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.39
Another value target from the Diamondbacks who, early on, are projected to score the most runs(5.41) of any team on Wednesday. Lamb has spent the majority of the season hitting cleanup before being moved down in the order after struggling mightily following the All Star break. He has started to heat up again with hits in five straight and eight of his last 10 games including three doubles, a triple and a home run with seven RBI and nine runs scored. He is a bit over priced on DraftKings but ranks highly on FanDuel from a PTS/$ perspective as he is the 9th most expensive option at third base on the evening slate.
Opponent - PIT (Brault) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.83 DK - 7.59
If you contrarian is your style in tournaments, Maikel Franco is right up your alley. He has been extremely boom or bust and should be avoided in cash games with his OBP south of .300 for the season but comes with big power upside. He has hit 22 home runs with 74 RBI for the season and has been much better against left handed pitching with a .346 wOBA(.292 vs. RH) and 115 wRC+(79 vs. RH). He faces off against another struggling youngster in Steven Brault who is pitching to a 5.35 xFIP while walking 4.5 batter per nine over his first five major league starts.
Early Slate
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.33
The projection system has been pumping up Josh Reddick since he got traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline and he is finally starting to pay the bills. Over the last 14 days Reddick is slashing .429/.444/.600 with a home run and a 188 wRC+. The matchup doesn't look to appealing at first glance against Pineda but over his last four starts has given up a 23% HR/FB rate with three of those starts coming on the road. He will be at home in Yankee Stadium tonight which can be a power haven for left handed hitters and Reddick has thrived vs. righties this season with a .367 wOBA and 134 wRC+.
Evening Slate
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @DET
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.89
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @DET
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.93
Both Upton and Martinez rank high on the projections today due to mid tier salaries on both sites and a great matchup vs. Tyler Duffey and the Twins. The Tigers come projected for close to five runs tonight in large part to Tyler Duffey not looking like a major league pitcher in the second half. In nine starts since the All Star break he has struggled giving up 36 earned runs in 40.2 innings pitched while allowing a 22.5% HR/FB rate. Both Upton(.342 wOBA/113 wRC+) and Martinez(.458 wOBA/192 wRC+) are enjoying more success in the second half and make a high floor/high ceiling outfield pairing tonight.
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.23 DK - 9.39
In his third season in the majors Polanco has yet to find the consistency he would like hitting just .264 with a low .328 OBP. He has, however, found his power stroke(21 HR, 82 RBI) and fallen right into the cleanup spot in the second half of the season. The Pirates get what appears to be the best matchup of the day going up against Jake Thompson who appears to not quite be ready for major league hitters. In seven starts this season he has pitched to a 5.33 xFIP with a low K rate(6.28 K/9) and extremely high walk rate(4.42 BB/9). Expect a shootout tonight, at least from the Bucs side.
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View Comments
keep throwing out those Tigers some day you will be right
Great game last night